Climate-induced extinctions of woody plants

Modeling studies based on species distribution models (SDMs) have predicted that climate change will cause the regional extinction of tree species within the next 50-100 years. With few exceptions, these efforts have not been validated by experimental or observational studies, and SDM-based predictions of future extinctions have largely gone unchallenged. A new study reports on the experimental consequences of moving seedlings from ~50 natural populations of each of two ash species to experimental sites spanning a range of 10°C colder to 10°C warmer than their home environments. Survival rates of 80%–100% were common even within populations subjected to warming conditions greater than those predicted to cause extinctions in this century, emphasizing the uncertainty that underlies predictions of climate-induced extinctions of long-lived woody plants over time frames of 50 to 100 years into the future.

Steiner, K.C., L.E. Graboski, J.L. Berkebile, S. Fei, and L.P. Leites (2021). Uncertainty in the modelled mortality of two tree species (Fraxinus) under novel climatic regimes. Diversity and Distributions, https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13293