High‐resolution climate projections for the northeastern U.S.

Tuesday, October 1st, 2019

Earth system models are able to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, and biosphere to estimate the state of the global climate under a variety of conditions and for past, present, and future time periods. These models, however, are not able to provide detailed analysis of climate change at regional and local scales—the scales that are needed to support planning, mitigation, and adaptation efforts. In this study professor Matthew Huber and graduate student Paul Acosta (Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences), and researchers from MIT used a unique method to dynamically downscale global model projections to 3‐km horizontal resolution, producing a high‐resolution climate data set to support sustainable regional planning efforts in New Hampshire. This is the first and only study that has downscaled global model projections to such a high resolution for this region. Scientists and planners can use this improved climate data, which is publicly available, in smaller scale models to better anticipate and plan for future climate change impacts (e.g., flooding, drought, disease vector populations, heat waves, storm surge, and economic impacts).

Komurcu, M.,  Emanuel, K.A., Huber, M. and Acosta, R.P (2018). HighResolution Climate Projections for the Northeastern United States Using Dynamical Downscaling at ConvectionPermitting Scales. Earth and Space Science, 5 (11), 801-826.

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