{"id":12194,"date":"2022-04-05T09:29:00","date_gmt":"2022-04-05T13:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=12194"},"modified":"2022-04-05T09:30:33","modified_gmt":"2022-04-05T13:30:33","slug":"media-ag-economy-barometer-slides-lower-producers-concerned-about-wars-impact-on-input-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/media-ag-economy-barometer-slides-lower-producers-concerned-about-wars-impact-on-input-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Ag Economy Barometer slides lower, producers concerned about war\u2019s impact on input prices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014 The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a> dipped to a reading of 113 in March, down 12 points from February and 36% lower than March 2021, marking the weakest farmer sentiment reading since May 2020, the early days of the pandemic. The decline was driven by producers\u2019 weaker perceptions of both current conditions in the agricultural economy and expectations for the future. The Index of Current Conditions<\/em> declined 19 points to 113, down 44% from March 2021, and the Index of Future Expectations<\/em> declined 9 points to 113, down 31% from the same time last year. The Ag Economy Barometer<\/em> is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers\u2019 responses to a telephone survey. This month\u2019s survey was conducted between March 14-18, 2022.<\/p>\n

\"Ag

Ag Economy Barometer slides lower, producers concerned about war\u2019s impact on input prices.<\/strong> (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert).<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cConcern about the war\u2019s impact on input prices and input availability on their farming operations was paramount in the minds of producers responding to the March survey and was a major factor in this month\u2019s decline in sentiment,\u201d said James Mintert<\/span><\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture.<\/p>\n

The March survey provided the first opportunity to ask producers how they expect the war in Ukraine to affect U.S. agriculture. Producers overwhelmingly said they expect input prices to be most affected (63% of respondents), followed by crop prices (33% of respondents), and livestock prices (3% of respondents). Responding to a related question, 19% of respondents chose \u201cavailability of inputs\u201d as their biggest concern in their farming operation this year, which was equal to the percentage of producers who chose \u201clower crop and\/or livestock prices\u201d as their biggest concern.<\/p>\n

Diving deeper into producers\u2019 expectations for farm input prices in the upcoming year, 57% expect farm input prices to rise by 20% or more and 36% think input prices will rise by 30% or more. And, just over one-fourth (27% of producers) say they\u2019ve had difficulty purchasing crop inputs for the 2022 crop season. Producers report that supply chain problems persist across a wide-range of inputs with herbicides, fertilizer, and farm machinery parts posing the most problems.<\/p>\n

Producers continue to say that they expect their farm\u2019s financial performance to decline in 2022 compared to 2021. The March Farm Financial Performance Index<\/i>, which asks producers whether they expect their farm’s financial performance in 2022 to be better than, worse than or about the same as in 2021, was up slightly (4 points) at a reading of 87, but remains 30% lower than a year earlier.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen producers think about how their farm will fare financially in 2022, it\u2019s clear they do not expect commodity price strength to offset the dramatic rise in farm production costs they are experiencing,\u201d said Mintert.<\/p>\n

Producers do not view this as a good time to make large investments in their farming operations as the Farm Capital Investment Index<\/i> fell again in March. The index was 6 points lower than a month earlier and 59% lower than in March 2021 when it was near its all-time peak. In a pair of follow-up questions, 62% of respondents said their plans for farm machinery purchases in the upcoming year are lower than a year earlier, which is the most negative response to that question since May 2020. When asked a similar question about their plans for farm building and grain bin construction, 68% of respondents chose \u201clower\u201d which was the most negative response received to that question since its first inclusion in a barometer survey in May 2021.<\/p>\n

Supply chain problems continue to haunt both the farm machinery and construction sectors and are one of the reasons producers don\u2019t view this as a good time for large investments. For example, 42% of producers this month said their machinery purchase plans were impacted by low farm machinery inventories, consistent with industry reports that major machinery manufacturers are experiencing order backlogs.<\/p>\n

Read the full Ag Economy Barometer<\/i> report at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agbarometer<\/a>. The site also offers additional resources \u2013 such as past reports, charts and survey methodology \u2013 and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and webinars.<\/p>\n

Each month, the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture provides a short video analysis of the barometer results, available at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo<\/a>. For even more information, check out the Purdue Commercial AgCast<\/i> podcast. It includes a detailed breakdown of each month\u2019s barometer, in addition to a discussion of recent agricultural news that affects farmers. Available now at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agcast<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/h2>\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

About CME Group<\/h2>\n

As the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com<\/a>) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates<\/a>, equity indexes<\/a>, foreign exchange<\/a>, energy<\/a>, agricultural products<\/a> and metals<\/a>.  The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform.  In addition, it operates one of the world’s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.  <\/p>\n

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and, E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.  CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.  NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.  COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec and EBS are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD and EBS Group LTD, respectively.  <\/strong>Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and S&P are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and S&P\/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.  All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Writer:<\/strong> Kami Goodwin, 765-494-6999, kami@purdue.edu<\/a>
Source:<\/strong> James Mintert, 765-494-7004, jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

Media Contacts:
<\/strong>Aissa Good, Purdue University, 765-496-3884, aissa@purdue.edu<\/a>
Dana Schmidt, CME Group, 312-872-5443, dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Related website:
<\/strong>Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture: http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag <\/a>
CME Group: http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Photo Caption:
<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ag Economy Barometer slides lower, producers concerned about war\u2019s impact on input prices. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert). https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/uns\/images\/2022\/ag-barometer322LO.jpg<\/a>  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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