{"id":12474,"date":"2022-07-05T09:25:00","date_gmt":"2022-07-05T13:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=12474"},"modified":"2022-07-05T09:21:50","modified_gmt":"2022-07-05T13:21:50","slug":"farmer-sentiment-remains-weak-crop-producers-contemplating-acreage-shifts-in-2023-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/farmer-sentiment-remains-weak-crop-producers-contemplating-acreage-shifts-in-2023-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Farmer sentiment remains weak, crop producers contemplating acreage shifts in 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"June

Farmer sentiment remains weak, crop producers contemplating acreage shifts in 2023. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/p><\/div>\n

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. <\/span>and CHICAGO <\/span>\u2014\u00a0<\/span>The <\/span>Purdue<\/span> University<\/span>\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/span><\/a> continued to slide<\/span> in June, down<\/span> 2 points t<\/span>o a reading of 9<\/span>7<\/span>.<\/span> P<\/span>roducers\u2019 expectations for the future <\/span>also <\/span>weakened<\/span>. T<\/span>he <\/span>Index of Future Expectations<\/span> fell <\/span>5<\/span> points to a reading of<\/span> 96<\/span>, <\/span>marking <\/span>the lowest level <\/span>for the index <\/span>since October 2016<\/span>. <\/span>Meanwhile, p<\/span>roducers<\/span>were slightly more optimistic <\/span>regarding current conditions<\/span>;<\/span> the<\/span> I<\/span>ndex of Current Conditions<\/span>improved 5 points to a reading of 99. <\/span>The <\/span>Ag Economy Barometer<\/span> is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers\u2019 responses to a telephone survey. This month\u2019s survey was conducted <\/span>between<\/span> June 13-17<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201c<\/span>Rising input costs and uncertainty about the future continue to weigh on farmer sentiment<\/span>,\u201d<\/span>s<\/span>aid <\/span>James Mintert<\/span><\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/span>.<\/span> \u201cMany producers remain c<\/span>oncern<\/span>ed<\/span> about the ongoing escalation in production costs <\/span>as well as <\/span>commodity price volatility<\/span>,<\/span> which could lead to a production cost\/income squeeze in 2023<\/span>.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

T<\/span>he <\/span>Farm Financial Performance Index<\/span> which is primarily reflective of income expectations for the current year, improved 2 points to a reading of 83 in June, yet remains at one of the index\u2019s lowest readings over the past 2 years.<\/span> When asked about expectations for their farm\u2019s financial condition in June 2023 compared to June 2022, <\/span>51<\/span>% <\/span>of survey respondents said they expect their farms to be worse off financially a year from now<\/span>.<\/span> This is t<\/span>he most negative response received to this question since data collection began in 2015.<\/span><\/p>\n

For the second month in a row, t<\/span>he <\/span>Farm Capital Investment Index<\/span> held at a<\/span> record low of 35<\/span>,<\/span>as p<\/span>roducers continue to <\/span>say now is not a <\/span>good time to make large investments in their farm operation<\/span>. <\/span>Supply chain issues continue to frustrate farmers. <\/span>In <\/span>May and <\/span>June, 50% <\/span>of producers said that tight machinery inventories <\/span>were <\/span>impact<\/span>ing<\/span> their farm machinery purchase plans.<\/span><\/p>\n

The t<\/span>op concerns for producers in the upcoming year continue to be input prices <\/span>(43%)<\/span>,<\/span>followed by<\/span> input availability<\/span> (21%)<\/span>, government policies <\/span>(18%), <\/span>and <\/span>lower <\/span>output prices<\/span> (17%)<\/span>. Looking ahead to 2023, a majority of farmers expect to see another round of large input cost increases with 63% of producers expecting higher costs in 2023<\/span>,<\/span> on top of<\/span> the large increases <\/span>experienced in 2022. <\/span>N<\/span>early four out of ten farmers expect input prices to rise by 10% or more next year when compared to 2022<\/span>;<\/span> only one out of ten producers expect input prices in 2023 to fall below 2022\u2019s prices. Producers also expect inflation to push up the cost of living for farm families in the year ahead. Seven out of ten survey respondents said they expect the rate of inflation for consumer items to be 6% or higher over the next year<\/span>,<\/span> and 35% of respondents said they expect the inflation rate to exceed 10%.<\/span><\/p>\n

When asked about th<\/span>eir cropping plans for the upcoming year, one out of five (19%) of crop producers said they intend to change their crop mix in the upcoming year in response to rising input costs. Among those who plan to shift their crop mix, almost half of respondents (46%) said the biggest change will be to devote a higher percentage of their acreage to soybeans. Twenty-six percent of those planning a crop mix change said the biggest change would be to devote more of their farm to wheat production<\/span>,<\/span> while 21% of respondents said they would shift <\/span>to<\/span> planting more corn.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although both farmland value indices remain at strong levels, producers were noticeably less confident that farmland values will continue to rise than they were last fall.<\/span> The <\/span>Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index<\/span> dropped 9 points to a reading of 136<\/span> in June<\/span>, while the <\/span>Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index<\/span> dropped 8 <\/span>points <\/span>to <\/span>a reading of 1<\/span>41<\/span>. <\/span>The short and long-term farmland <\/span>indices are down 13% and 12%, respectively from <\/span>the<\/span> highs<\/span> posted<\/span> in fall of 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

T<\/span>his month\u2019s survey <\/span>also <\/span>asked farmers who planted corn or soybeans in 2022 about their expectations for farmland cash rental rates in 2023. Over half (52%) of respondents said they expect cash rental rates to rise next year. <\/span>Of <\/span>those who expect rates to rise, eight out of ten respondents said they expect rates to rise 5% or more<\/span>,<\/span> while<\/span> four out of ten said they <\/span>expect<\/span> rental rates to rise by 10% or more in 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

Read the full <\/span>Ag Economy Barometer<\/span> report at <\/span>https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agbarometer<\/span><\/a>. <\/span>T<\/span>he site also offers additional resources \u2013 such as past reports, charts and survey methodology \u2013 and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and webinars. <\/span><\/p>\n

Each month, <\/span>the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture provides a short video analysis of the barometer results, available at\u00a0<\/span>https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo<\/span><\/a>. F<\/span>or even more information, check out the\u00a0<\/span>Purdue Commercial <\/span>AgCast<\/span>\u00a0podcast. It includes a detailed breakdown of each month\u2019s barometer, in addition to a discussion of recent agricultural news that <\/span>affects<\/span> farmers. Available now at\u00a0<\/span>https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agcast<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The <\/span>Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/span><\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University<\/span>\u2019<\/span>s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/span><\/p>\n

About CME Group<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

As the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (<\/span>www.cmegroup.com<\/span><\/a>)\u00a0enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on\u00a0<\/span>interest rates<\/span><\/a>,\u00a0<\/span>equity indexes<\/span><\/a>,\u00a0<\/span>foreign exchange<\/span><\/a>,\u00a0<\/span>energy<\/span><\/a>,\u00a0<\/span>agricultural products<\/span><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/span>metals<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0 The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the\u00a0<\/span>CME Globex<\/span><\/a>\u00ae platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform.\u00a0 In addition, it operates one of the world’s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span>CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and, E-mini\u00a0are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0 CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.\u00a0 NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.\u00a0 COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec and EBS are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD and EBS Group LTD, respectively.<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and S&P are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and S&P\/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0 All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Writer:<\/span> Kami Goodwin<\/span>, 765-49<\/span>4<\/span>-6<\/span>999<\/span>,<\/span> kami@purdue.edu<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Source: James Mintert, 765-494-7004, <\/span>jmintert@purdue.edu<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Media Contacts:<\/span><\/p>\n

Aissa Good, Purdue University, 765-496-3884, <\/span>aissa@purdue.edu<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Dana Schmidt, CME Group, 312-872-5443,\u00a0<\/span>dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Related website<\/span>s<\/span>:<\/span><\/p>\n

Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture: <\/span>http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

CME Group: <\/span>http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Photo Caption:<\/span> Farmer sentiment remains weak, crop producers contemplating acreage shifts in 2023<\/span> (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert). <\/span>https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/uns\/images\/2022\/ag-barometer622<\/span>–<\/span>2LO.jpg<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014\u00a0The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer continued to slide in June, down 2 points to a reading of 97. Producers\u2019 expectations for the future also weakened. The Index of Future Expectations fell 5 points to a reading of 96, marking the lowest level for the index since October 2016.…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-media"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFarmer sentiment remains weak, crop producers contemplating acreage shifts in 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer continued to slide in June, down 2 points to a reading of 97. 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