{"id":12556,"date":"2022-08-02T09:25:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-02T13:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=12556"},"modified":"2022-08-01T22:02:41","modified_gmt":"2022-08-02T02:02:41","slug":"farmer-sentiment-remains-weak-crop-producers-contemplating-acreage-shifts-in-2023-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/farmer-sentiment-remains-weak-crop-producers-contemplating-acreage-shifts-in-2023-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Slight increase in producer sentiment despite rising costs and lower crop prices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Slight increase in producer sentiment despite rising costs and lower crop prices. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/p><\/div>\n

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. <\/span>and CHICAGO <\/span>\u2014\u00a0<\/span>The <\/span>Purdue<\/span> University<\/span>\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/span><\/a> farmer sentiment index rose 6 points in July to a reading of 103. Producers were somewhat more optimistic about both current and future economic conditions on their farms when compared to June. The Index of Current Conditions<\/em> rose 10 points to a reading of 109 and the Index of Future Expectations<\/em> rose 4 points to a reading of 100. Although all three indices rose this month, they were still 23-24% lower than a year earlier. The Ag Economy Barometer<\/em> is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers\u2019 responses to a telephone survey. This month\u2019s survey was conducted between July 11-15.<\/p>\n

\u201cEven though we saw a slight uptick in sentiment this month, there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the agricultural economy,\u201d said James Mintert<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture. \u201cKey commodity prices, including wheat, corn and soybeans, all weakened during the month and producers remain concerned over rising input prices and input availability.\u201d<\/p>\n

Farm operators in this month\u2019s survey voiced concerns about several key issues affecting their operation, including: higher input prices (42% of respondents), lower crop prices (19% of respondents), rising interest rates (17% of respondents), and availability of inputs (15% of respondents).<\/p>\n

The Farm Financial Performance Index<\/em> which is primarily reflective of income expectations for the current year, improved 5 points to a reading of 88 in June. However, this month, 49% of respondents said they expect their farm to be worse off financially a year from now, which compares to 51% who felt that way in June. This is a markedly more pessimistic outlook than producers provided a year ago when just 30% of respondents said they expect their financial condition to worsen in the upcoming year.<\/p>\n

Producers remain uncertain over their expectations for crop input prices over the next 12 months. In July, 18% of crop producers said they expect 2023\u2019s crop input prices to decline between 1 and 10% when compared to 2022\u2019s prices, versus 12% who felt that way in June. Meanwhile, 26% of respondents in July said they expect 2023\u2019s prices to rise by 10% or more, compared to 38% who expected a crop input price rise of that magnitude in June.<\/p>\n

The rise in input costs is leading some producers to reassess their cropping plans for the upcoming year. In this month\u2019s survey, nearly one out of four (24%) of crop producers said that as a result of the rise in input costs they plan to change their farm\u2019s crop mix in 2023. In a follow-up question, over half (53%) of respondents who said they plan to change their mix will increase the percentage of their cropland devoted to soybeans. In a separate set of questions, 26% of producers who told us they planted winter wheat last year said they plan to increase their wheat acreage this fall.<\/p>\n

The Farm Capital Investment Index<\/em> remains near its record low, up one point to a reading of 36 in July. To shed light on why, respondents who said now is a bad time for large investments were asked for the primary reason they felt that way. Of those respondents, 44% indicated an \u201cincrease in prices for farm machinery and new construction,\u201d 15% said \u201cuncertainty about farm profitability,\u201d and 14% chose \u201crising interest rates\u201d as the primary reason they viewed now as a bad time for large investments. Somewhat surprisingly, only 7% of respondents chose \u201ctight farm machinery inventories at dealers\u201d as their primary reason for responding negatively to the investment question.<\/p>\n

Producers\u2019 views on farmland values diverged this month as the Short-Term Farmland Value Index<\/em>declined 9 points to 127, while the long-term index rose 9 points to 150. The short-term index is down 20% from its peak reading in 2021, while the long-term index is only 6% lower than the peak reached last year. Short-term there was a shift away from expectations that farmland values will go higher, with more producers in July expecting values to remain about the same. The long-term change was attributable to more respondents this month expecting values to rise with fewer expecting a decline over the next five years.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe short-run and long-term farmland indices don\u2019t always move in tandem, but the magnitude of this month\u2019s divergence between the short and long-term indices is unusual,\u201d said Mintert. \u201cProducers who expect values to rise over the upcoming 5 years continue to say that non-farm investor demand and inflation are the two primary reasons they expect values to rise.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read the full Ag Economy Barometer<\/em> report at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agbarometer<\/a>. The site also offers additional resources \u2013 such as past reports, charts and survey methodology \u2013 and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and webinars.<\/p>\n

Each month, the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture provides a short video analysis of the barometer results, available at\u00a0https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo<\/a>. For even more information, check out the\u00a0Purdue Commercial AgCast<\/em>\u00a0podcast. It includes a detailed breakdown of each month\u2019s barometer, in addition to a discussion of recent agricultural news that affects farmers. Available now at\u00a0https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agcast<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/p>\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

About CME Group<\/strong><\/p>\n

As the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com<\/a>)\u00a0enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on\u00a0interest rates<\/a>,\u00a0equity indexes<\/a>,\u00a0foreign exchange<\/a>,\u00a0energy<\/a>,\u00a0agricultural products<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0metals<\/a>.\u00a0 The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the\u00a0CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform.\u00a0 In addition, it operates one of the world’s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and, E-mini\u00a0are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0 CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.\u00a0 NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.\u00a0 COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec and EBS are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD and EBS Group LTD, respectively.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and S&P are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and S&P\/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0 All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Writer:<\/span> Kami Goodwin<\/span>, 765-49<\/span>4<\/span>-6<\/span>999<\/span>,<\/span> kami@purdue.edu<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Source: James Mintert, 765-494-7004, <\/span>jmintert@purdue.edu<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Media Contacts:<\/span><\/p>\n

Aissa Good, Purdue University, 765-496-3884, <\/span>aissa@purdue.edu<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Dana Schmidt, CME Group, 312-872-5443,\u00a0<\/span>dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Related website<\/span>s<\/span>:<\/span><\/p>\n

Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture: <\/span>http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

CME Group: <\/span>http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Photo Caption:<\/span> Slight increase in producer sentiment despite rising costs and lower crop prices<\/span>\u00a0(Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert). <\/span>https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/uns\/images\/2022\/ag-barometer722<\/span>–<\/span>2LO.jpg<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014\u00a0The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer farmer sentiment index rose 6 points in July to a reading of 103. Producers were somewhat more optimistic about both current and future economic conditions on their farms when compared to June. The Index of Current Conditions rose 10 points to a reading…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-media"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSlight increase in producer sentiment despite rising costs and lower crop prices<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer farmer sentiment index rose 6 points in July to a reading of 103. 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