{"id":12701,"date":"2022-10-04T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2022-10-04T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=12701"},"modified":"2022-10-04T09:18:53","modified_gmt":"2022-10-04T13:18:53","slug":"media-farmer-sentiment-drifts-lower-rising-interest-rates-contribute-to-uneasiness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/media-farmer-sentiment-drifts-lower-rising-interest-rates-contribute-to-uneasiness\/","title":{"rendered":"Farmer sentiment drifts lower, rising interest rates contribute to uneasiness"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Ag

Farmer sentiment drifts lower, rising interest rates contribute to uneasiness. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014 The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a> farmer sentiment index declined 5 points to a reading of 112 in September. The decline in farmer sentiment was primarily the result of producers\u2019 weakened perception of current conditions, as the Current Conditions Index<\/em> declined 9 points to 109. The Index of Future Expectations<\/em> also weakened slightly, declining 3 points from a month earlier to a reading of 113. The Ag Economy Barometer<\/em> is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers\u2019 responses to a telephone survey. This month\u2019s survey was conducted between September 19-23.<\/p>\n

\u201cConcerns about input costs and, in some cases, availability are key factors behind the relative weakness in this month\u2019s farmer sentiment,\u201d said James Mintert<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture. \u201cHowever, a growing number of producers are also concerned about the impact of rising interest rates on their farm operations.\u201d<\/p>\n

Higher input costs remain the number one concern among survey respondents. In September, 44% of respondents chose \u201chigher input costs\u201d as their number one concern, while 23% chose \u201crising interest rates,\u201d and 14% chose \u201cavailability of inputs.\u201d When asked to look ahead to 2023, the largest share (38%) of producers expect input prices to rise from 1% to 9%, compared to 2022 prices. Meanwhile, nearly a fourth (24%) of producers expect input prices to rise from 10% to 19%, and 9% of survey respondents said they expect an input price rise of 20% or more.<\/p>\n

The Farm Capital Investment Index<\/em> declined to a record low of 31 in September, as producers continue to indicate now is not a \u201cgood time\u201d to make large investments in their farming operations. To understand why they felt that way, a follow-up question was posed to farmers who reported now being a \u201cbad time\u201d to make large investments. For the third month in a row, producers overwhelmingly (46%) said it was due to increasing prices for farm machinery and new construction; however, 21% indicated that \u201crising interest rates\u201d were a primary reason, up from 14% who cited interest rates back in August.<\/p>\n

Despite that negative perspective, fewer producers plan to reduce their farm machinery purchases. Since peaking in March 2022 at 62%, the share of producers who plan to reduce their machinery purchases compared to a year earlier has been declining, dipping to 47% in September. Their plans for farm building purchases tell a similar story. Since the March 2022 high of 68%, producers who planned to reduce their building and grain bin purchases has fallen to 56% in September.<\/p>\n

Producers\u2019 perspective on farmland values continues to soften. This month the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index<\/em> fell 5 points to 123 and the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index<\/em> fell 7 points to 139. Compared to a year ago, the short-term index is down 21%, while the long-term index has fallen 12% over the same time frame. In a follow-up question posed to respondents who expect farmland values to rise over the next 5 years, non-farm investor demand (60%) remains their primary reason for the rise.<\/p>\n

This month\u2019s survey included a series of questions to understand producers\u2019 cover crop usage. Nearly six out of 10 (57%) respondents said they currently plant cover crops on a portion of their farmland, while approximately one out of four producers said they have never planted a cover crop. Most producers who report planting cover crops say they only plant them on a portion of their farmland with half indicating they plant on 25% or less of their acreage. However, some farms report more intensive use of cover crops as nearly a fourth of respondents said they plant cover crops on over 50% of their farms\u2019 acreage. A large share (40%) of producers who reported planting cover crops this month said they have been planting cover crops for 5 years or less, while 28% of respondents said they have been planting cover crops for more than 10 years. The reasons for planting cover crops vary, with 37% citing \u201cimprove soil health\u201d and 33% citing \u201cimprove erosion control\u201d as the primary motivators. Just 5% of cover crop users indicated \u201ccarbon sequestration\u201d as a motivation for planting cover crops.<\/p>\n

Read the full Ag Economy Barometer<\/em> report at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agbarometer<\/a>. The site also offers additional resources \u2013 such as past reports, charts and survey methodology \u2013 and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and webinars.<\/p>\n

Each month, the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture provides a short video analysis of the barometer results, available at\u00a0https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo<\/a>. For more information, check out the\u00a0Purdue Commercial AgCast<\/em>\u00a0podcast available at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agcast<\/a>, which includes a detailed breakdown of each month\u2019s barometer, in addition to a discussion of recent agricultural news that affects farmers.<\/p>\n

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/p>\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

About CME Group<\/strong><\/p>\n

As the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com<\/a>)\u00a0enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on\u00a0interest rates<\/a>,\u00a0equity indexes<\/a>,\u00a0foreign exchange<\/a>,\u00a0energy<\/a>,\u00a0agricultural products<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0metals<\/a>.\u00a0 The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the\u00a0CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform.\u00a0 In addition, it operates one of the world’s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and, E-mini\u00a0are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0 CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.\u00a0 NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.\u00a0 COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec and EBS are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD and EBS Group LTD, respectively.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and S&P are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and S&P\/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0 All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Writer: Kami Goodwin, 765-494-6999, kami@purdue.edu<\/a> \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Source: James Mintert, 765-494-7004, jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Media Contacts:<\/p>\n

Aissa Good, Purdue University, 765-496-3884, aissa@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

Dana Schmidt, CME Group, 312-872-5443,\u00a0dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Related websites:<\/p>\n

Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture: http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag<\/a><\/p>\n

CME Group: http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Photo Caption: Farmer sentiment drifts lower, rising interest rates contribute to uneasiness. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert). https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/uns\/images\/2022\/sept-barometerLO.jpg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014 The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer farmer sentiment index declined 5 points to a reading of 112 in September. The decline in farmer sentiment was primarily the result of producers\u2019 weakened perception of current conditions, as the Current Conditions Index declined 9 points to 109. 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