{"id":13002,"date":"2023-02-07T10:25:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-07T14:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=13002"},"modified":"2023-02-07T10:26:46","modified_gmt":"2023-02-07T14:26:46","slug":"media-improvement-in-farmer-sentiment-carries-over-into-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/media-improvement-in-farmer-sentiment-carries-over-into-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Improvement in farmer sentiment carries over into 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"217\" src=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/AgEconomyBarometer_Jan2023-300x217.jpg\" alt=\"Improvement in farmer sentiment carries over into 2023 (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert). https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/uns\/images\/2023\/ag-barometer123LO.jpg\" class=\"wp-image-13013\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/AgEconomyBarometer_Jan2023-300x217.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/AgEconomyBarometer_Jan2023-1024x742.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/AgEconomyBarometer_Jan2023-768x557.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/AgEconomyBarometer_Jan2023-1536x1113.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/AgEconomyBarometer_Jan2023-2048x1485.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Improvement in farmer sentiment carries over into 2023&nbsp;<\/strong>(Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind.&nbsp;and CHICAGO&nbsp;\u2014Following a sharp increase to close out 2022, <a>t<\/a>he&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/\">Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a>&nbsp;had only a modest increase in January, up 4 points to a reading of 130. The rise in sentiment was primarily attributable to better expectations for the future as the&nbsp;<em>Future Expectations Index<\/em>&nbsp;improved by 5 points to 127. The&nbsp;<em>Index of Current Conditions<\/em>&nbsp;rose only 1 point to a reading of 136. The&nbsp;<em>Ag Economy Barometer<\/em>&nbsp;is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers\u2019 responses to a telephone survey. This month\u2019s survey was conducted from January 16-20.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAlthough producers were a bit more optimistic about the future this month, they again reported expectations for tighter margins in 2023 than in 2022,\u201d said&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/team\/jim-mintert\/\">James Mintert<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;<em>Farm Capital Investment Index<\/em>&nbsp;was up 2 points this month to 42; however, it remained 7% lower than a year earlier. Just over 7 out of 10 survey respondents said they think now is a bad time to make large investments in their farm operation. Among respondents who felt now is a bad time, 39% said high prices for machinery and new construction, 25% said rising interest rates, and 12% said uncertainty about farm profitability was the primary reason. Interest rates are becoming a bigger concern for farmers. As recently as November, just 19% percent of farmers in the monthly barometer survey chose rising interest rates as a key factor impacting their perspective on investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Each January, starting in 2020, the survey has included a question asking respondents if they expect to have a larger operating loan compared to the previous year and if so, the reason for the larger loan. In January, 22% of respondents said they expect to have a larger 2023 farm operating loan compared to 2022, down from 27% last year. Among respondents who expect to have a larger operating loan, 80% indicated it was due to increased input costs, while only 5% said it was due to carrying over unpaid operating debt, which according to Mintert is important to note. The percentage of respondents who attribute their need for a larger loan to unpaid operating debt has fallen sharply since the question was first posed in January 2020. At that time, just over one-third of producers who anticipated needing a larger loan said it was because of unpaid operating debt. That percentage fell to 20% in 2021, to 13% in 2022, before declining again to just 5% in 2023.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe sharp decline in the percentage of producers expecting to carry over unpaid operating debt is important,\u201d said Mintert. \u201cIt supports the idea that the vast majority of producers are entering 2023 in a strong financial position&nbsp;despite the rise in production costs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Producers\u2019 expectations for short-term and long-term farmland values were mixed in January. The&nbsp;<em>Short-Term Farmland Index&nbsp;<\/em>fell 4 points to 120, down 15% when compared to one-year earlier, as more producers said they expect values to hold steady over the coming year instead of increasing. The&nbsp;<em>Long-Term Farmland Values Index<\/em>&nbsp;rose slightly to 142 from 140 in December. Over the last year, the long-term index has declined just 2% as producers continue to retain a more optimistic long-term than short-term view of farmland values. Among producers who expect to see farmland values rise over the next 5 years, the top reasons for their optimism continue to be non-farm investor demand (63%) and inflation (23%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This month\u2019s survey also included questions about leasing farmland for carbon sequestration and U.S. farmers continue to express interest in carbon contracts. During the first quarter of 2021, approximately 7% of survey respondents said they had engaged in discussions with companies about being paid to capture carbon on their farms. When we repeated the question about carbon payments in August 2022 and again in January 2023, the percentage of producers who said they had discussed a carbon contract with a company rose modestly to 9% of respondents. However, relatively few farm operators have chosen to sign a carbon contract with just 1% of January\u2019s survey respondents indicating they had signed a contract.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Read the full&nbsp;<em>Ag Economy Barometer<\/em>&nbsp;report at&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agbarometer\">https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agbarometer<\/a>.&nbsp;The site also offers additional resources \u2013 such as past reports, charts and survey methodology \u2013 and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and webinars.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Each month,&nbsp;the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture provides a short video analysis of the barometer results, available at&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo\">https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo<\/a>. For more information, check out the&nbsp;<em>Purdue Commercial AgCast<\/em>&nbsp;podcast&nbsp;available at&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agcast\">https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agcast<\/a>,&nbsp;which&nbsp;includes a detailed breakdown of each month\u2019s barometer, in addition to a discussion of recent agricultural news that&nbsp;affects&nbsp;farmers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/Pages\/default.aspx\">Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a>&nbsp;was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About CME Group<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the world&#8217;s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/\">www.cmegroup.com<\/a>)&nbsp;enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/interest-rates\/index.html\">interest rates<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/equity-index\/index.html\">equity indexes<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/fx\/\">foreign&nbsp;exchange<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/energy\/\">energy<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/agricultural\/\">agricultural products<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/metals\/\">metals<\/a>.&nbsp; The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/globex\/index.html\">CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform.&nbsp; In addition, it operates one of the world&#8217;s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and, E-mini&nbsp;are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.&nbsp; CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.&nbsp; NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.&nbsp; COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec and EBS are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD and EBS Group LTD, respectively.<strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&amp;P 500 and S&amp;P are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s Financial Services LLC and S&amp;P\/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.&nbsp; All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Writer:&nbsp;Kami Goodwin, 765-494-6999,&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:kami@purdue.edu\">kami@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: James Mintert, 765-494-7004,&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:jmintert@purdue.edu\">jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Media Contacts:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aissa Good, Purdue University, 765-496-3884,&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:aissa@purdue.edu\">aissa@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dana Schmidt, CME Group, 312-872-5443,&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com\">dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Related websites:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture:&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag\">http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CME Group:&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/\">http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Photo Caption:&nbsp;Improvement in farmer sentiment carries over into 2023&nbsp;(Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert).<a href=\"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/uns\/images\/2023\/ag-barometer123LO.jpg\">https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/uns\/images\/2023\/ag-barometer123LO.jpg<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Farmer sentiment was unchanged in November as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index came in at a reading of 102, the same as in October. This month&#8217;s survey was conducted November 14-18, 2022. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-media"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Improvement in farmer sentiment carries over into 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Following a two-month decline and a year of weak sentiment, the Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer closed out the year on a more positive note.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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