{"id":13109,"date":"2023-04-04T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-04T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=13109"},"modified":"2023-04-04T09:26:16","modified_gmt":"2023-04-04T13:26:16","slug":"media-commodity-price-outlook-and-interest-rate-concerns-cloud-farmer-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/media-commodity-price-outlook-and-interest-rate-concerns-cloud-farmer-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"Commodity price outlook and interest rate concerns cloud farmer sentiment"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"Commodity
Commodity price outlook and interest rate concerns cloud farmer sentiment<\/strong> (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014<\/a> <\/a>Farmer sentiment weakened \u00adagain in March as the Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a> fell 8 points to a reading of 117. Both of the barometer\u2019s sub-indices declined 8 points in March, leaving the Current Conditions Index<\/em> at 126 and the Future Expectations Index<\/em> at 113. The Ag Economy Barometer<\/em> is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers\u2019 responses to a telephone survey. This month\u2019s survey was conducted between March 13-17, which coincided with the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRising interest rates and weaker prices for key commodities including wheat, corn, and soybeans from mid-February through mid-March were key factors behind this month\u2019s lower sentiment reading,\u201d said James Mintert<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture. \u201cAlthough the March survey did not include any questions directly related to the bank closures, during an open-ended comment question posed at the end of each survey, multiple respondents voiced concerns about the banking sector\u2019s problems and its potential to hurt the economy. These problems also likely \u00adweighed on producer sentiment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Farm Financial Performance Index<\/em> remained unchanged from February at a reading of 86. Producers point to higher input costs (34% of respondents) and rising interest rates (25% of respondents) as their number one concern for the year ahead. Notably concern about higher input cost has been falling since last summer\u2019s peak when 53% of respondents cited it as their number one concern for the year ahead. At the same time, the percentage of producers pointing to interest rates as a top concern has been increasing, up 11 points from last summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While there was little change in the Farm Capital Investment Index,<\/em> down one point to a reading of 42 in March, there was a change in how respondents perceived whether now was a good or bad time for large investments. Since last July, respondents who felt now is a bad time to make large investments have consistently chosen \u201cincreased prices for farm machinery and new construction\u201d as the key reason. That changed in March as more felt that rising interest rates (34% of respondents, up from 27% in February) over high prices (32% of respondents, down from 45% in February) was the key reason that now is a bad time for such investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Producers\u2019 outlook for farmland values in the short-term and long-term were mixed in March. The Short-Term Farmland Value Index<\/em> declined 6 points to 113 while the Long-Term Farmland Value Index<\/em> rose 5 points to 142. This month\u2019s short-term index value provided the weakest reading since September 2020 and left the index 32 points lower than a year earlier. One out of five producers in this month\u2019s survey said they expect farmland values to weaken in the next 12 months. Long-term, 17% of respondents said they expect weaker values in the next 5 years, up from 13% a year ago and 7% two years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This month\u2019s survey included several renewable energy questions focused on the ethanol and renewable diesel sectors. When asked to look ahead 5 years, nearly half (46%) of respondents said they expected the renewable diesel industry to be larger than it is today, while just a quarter (25%) expect the ethanol industry to grow over the same time period. In a follow-up question, respondents were asked what impact they expect the renewable diesel industry to have on soybean prices over the upcoming 5 years with 39% expecting a price increase of up to $0.50 per bushel, 28% expecting a boost in price between $0.50 up to $1.00 per bushel, and 21% expecting soybean prices to rise by $1.00 or more per bushel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read the full Ag Economy Barometer<\/em> report at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agbarometer<\/a>. The site also offers additional resources \u2013 such as past reports, charts and survey methodology \u2013 and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and webinars. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Each month, the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture provides a short video analysis of the barometer results, available at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo<\/a>. For more information, check out the Purdue Commercial AgCast<\/em> podcast available at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agcast<\/a>, which includes a detailed breakdown of each month\u2019s barometer and a discussion of recent agricultural news that affects farmers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About CME Group<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com<\/a>) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates<\/a>, equity indexes<\/a>, foreign exchange<\/a>, energy<\/a>, agricultural products<\/a> and metals<\/a>.  The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform.  In addition, it operates one of the world’s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and, E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.  CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.  NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.  COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec and EBS are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD and EBS Group LTD, respectively.Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and S&P are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and S&P\/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.  All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Writer: Kami Goodwin, 765-494-6999, kami@purdue.edu<\/a>   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: James Mintert, 765-494-7004, jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Media Contacts:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aissa Good, Purdue University, 765-496-3884, aissa@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Schmidt, CME Group, 312-872-5443, dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Related websites:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture: http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group: http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Photo Caption: Commodity price outlook and interest rate concerns cloud farmer sentiment (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert). https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/uns\/images\/2023\/march-barometerLO.jpg<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0Farmer sentiment weakened \u00adagain in March as the\u00a0Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\u00a0fell 8 points to a reading of 117. Both of the barometer\u2019s sub-indices declined 8 points in March, leaving the\u00a0Current Conditions Index\u00a0at 126 and the\u00a0Future Expectations Index\u00a0at 113.\u00a0The\u00a0Ag Economy Barometer\u00a0is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers\u2019 responses to a telephone survey. This month\u2019s survey was conducted between March 13-17, which coincided with the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-media"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCommodity price outlook and interest rate concerns cloud farmer sentiment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Following a two-month decline and a year of weak sentiment, the Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer closed out the year on a more positive note.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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