{"id":14594,"date":"2024-12-03T10:10:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-03T14:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=14594"},"modified":"2024-12-03T10:14:13","modified_gmt":"2024-12-03T14:14:13","slug":"media-farmer-sentiment-following-the-u-s-election-reaches-highest-levels-since-may-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/media-farmer-sentiment-following-the-u-s-election-reaches-highest-levels-since-may-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Farmer sentiment following the U.S. election reaches highest levels since May 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. \u2014 Farmer sentiment jumped again in November, with the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/\">Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a> climbing 30 points to a reading of 145. This marked the highest level of farmer optimism since May 2021, driven by considerable gains in both the Current Conditions and Future Expectations indices. The Future Expectations Index saw the largest jump, rising 37 points to 161, while the Current Conditions Index increased 18 points to 113.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"attachment_14608\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-14608\" class=\"wp-image-14608 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Figure1-1-300x218.png\" alt=\"Farmer sentiment following the U.S. election reaches highest levels since May 2021. (Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)\" width=\"300\" height=\"218\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Figure1-1-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Figure1-1-1024x743.png 1024w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Figure1-1-768x557.png 768w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Figure1-1-1536x1115.png 1536w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Figure1-1-2048x1486.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-14608\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><strong>Farmer sentiment following the U.S. election reaches highest levels since May 2021.<\/strong> (Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/p><\/div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">The November sentiment boost reflects growing optimism about a more favorable regulatory and tax environment for agriculture following the U.S. election. This month\u2019s survey was conducted from Nov. 11-15, 2024.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">In November\u2019s survey, farmers reported a notably more positive outlook for their operations and the broader agricultural economy. The percentage of producers expecting their farm\u2019s financial performance to improve over the next year climbed to 33%, up from 19% in October. Optimism about the U.S. agricultural sector also surged, with 34% of farmers anticipating good times financially in the next 12 months, more than double October\u2019s 15%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Looking ahead five years, over half of November\u2019s respondents (52%) predicted widespread prosperity for U.S. agriculture, a noticeable increase from 34% the previous month. This growing confidence was also reflected in farmers\u2019 investment plans, as 22% reported that it\u2019s a good time for large capital investments, compared to 15% in October.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Farmers\u2019 improved sentiment also carried over to their investment outlook, as the Farm Capital Investment Index rose 13 points in November to a reading of 55 \u2014 the highest level since May 2021. The change in investment sentiment was partly driven by expectations of stronger financial performance in 2025 compared to 2024. For the second consecutive month, the percentage of producers expecting better financial conditions in the year ahead increased, climbing to 25% in November from 16% in October. This positive shift drove the Farm Financial Performance Index up to 106, marking a 16-point increase from October and a substantial 38-point jump since September.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Following the improvements in the short-term and long-term farmland value indices in October\u2019s survey, both indices saw modest declines in November. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index dropped by 5 points, while the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index decreased by 3 points. Despite these small decreases, the indices remained relatively strong, with the short-term index at 115 and the long-term index at 156.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">To gain insight into how farmers\u2019 sentiment might align with potential policy shifts following a change in presidential administrations, barometer surveys included several policy-related questions before and after the 2020 and 2024 elections.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">In the wake of the 2024 election, farmers\u2019 views on environmental regulations experienced a sharp reversal. In October, 41% of respondents anticipated a more restrictive regulatory environment over the next five years, while only 10% expected less restrictive regulations. However, the November survey saw a dramatic shift, with just 9% of surveyed farmers expecting stricter regulations and 55% predicting a more favorable, less restrictive regulatory landscape.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">There was a modest shift from October to November 2024 when asked about tax expectations, but a notable contrast with responses following the 2020 election. In November 2024, more than half (55%) of respondents expected income tax rates to remain unchanged, compared to just 25% in 2020. Similarly, 57% of respondents in the November survey anticipated estate tax rates to stay the same over the next five years, a large increase from 28% in November 2020.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cWhile optimism is up, farmers are also expressing concerns about the potential risks to agricultural trade, with many fearing that a trade war could significantly impact U.S. exports,\u201d said <a href=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/team\/jim-mintert\/\">James Mintert<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/home\/\">Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">Forty-two percent of November\u2019s survey respondents indicated they believe it is \u201clikely\u201d or \u201cvery likely\u201d that U.S. agriculture could face a \u201ctrade war,\u201d potentially leading to a significant decline in agricultural exports.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cAs we move into 2025, farmers\u2019 outlook for agriculture remains positive, but they are closely monitoring the evolving political landscape and its potential impact on both policy and international trade,\u201d Mintert said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<p>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/home\/\">Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a>\u00a0was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n\n\n<p><strong>About CME Group<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the world&#8217;s leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">www.cmegroup.com<\/a>)&nbsp;enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/interest-rates\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">interest rates<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/equity-index\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">equity indexes<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/fx\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">foreign exchange<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/energy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">energy<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/agricultural\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">agricultural products<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/metals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">metals<\/a>.&nbsp; The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/globex\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform.&nbsp; In addition, it operates one of the world&#8217;s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and, E-mini&nbsp;are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.&nbsp; CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.&nbsp; NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.&nbsp; COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec and EBS are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD and EBS Group LTD, respectively.&nbsp;The S&amp;P 500 Index is a product of S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices LLC (\u201cS&amp;P DJI\u201d). \u201cS&amp;P\u00ae\u201d, \u201cS&amp;P 500\u00ae\u201d, \u201cSPY\u00ae\u201d, \u201cSPX\u00ae\u201d, US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones\u00ae, DJIA\u00ae and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&amp;P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&amp;P DJI, and S&amp;P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>About Purdue University<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Purdue University is a public research institution demonstrating excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities and with two colleges in the top four in the United States, Purdue discovers and disseminates knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 105,000 students study at Purdue across modalities and locations, including nearly 50,000 in person on the West Lafayette campus. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue\u2019s main campus has frozen tuition 13 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap \u2014 including its first comprehensive urban campus in Indianapolis, the Mitch Daniels School of Business, Purdue Computes and the One Health initiative \u2014 at\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/president\/strategic-initiatives\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/president\/strategic-initiatives<\/strong><\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sources and Notes block:<\/strong><br \/><strong>Source:<\/strong> James Mintert, <a href=\"mailto:jmintert@purdue.edu\">jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a>, 765-494-7004<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Media Contacts:<\/strong><br>Aissa Good, Purdue University,\u00a0<a href=\"mailto:aissa@purdue.edu\">aissa@purdue.edu<\/a>, 765-496-3884<br>Dana Schmidt, CME Group,\u00a0<a href=\"mailto:dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com\">dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com<\/a>, 312-872-5443<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400\"><strong>Agricultural Communications:<\/strong>\u00a0Maureen Manier,\u00a0<a href=\"mailto:mmanier@purdue.edu\">mmanier@purdue.edu<\/a>,\u00a0765-494-8415<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. \u2014 Farmer sentiment jumped again in November, with the\u00a0Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer climbing 30 points to a reading of 145. This marked the highest level of farmer optimism since May 2021, driven by considerable gains in both the Current Conditions and Future Expectations indices. The Future Expectations Index saw the&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-media"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Farmer sentiment following the U.S. election reaches highest levels since May 2021<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The August Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropped 13 points from July to a reading of 100, echoing levels seen from fall 2015 to winter 2016 during the early stages of a significant downturn in the U.S. farm economy.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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