{"id":14812,"date":"2025-04-01T09:25:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-01T13:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=14812"},"modified":"2025-04-01T09:30:38","modified_gmt":"2025-04-01T13:30:38","slug":"media-producer-sentiment-slips-due-to-rising-policy-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/media-producer-sentiment-slips-due-to-rising-policy-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Producer sentiment slips due to rising policy uncertainty\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. \u2014 Farmer sentiment declined in March as concerns over agricultural trade and farm policy weighed on producers\u2019 outlook for the future. The\u00a0Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a>\u00a0fell 12 points to a reading of 140, down from 152 a month earlier. Contributing to the weakened sentiment in March was a 15-point drop in the Index of Future Expectations to 144 and the Current Conditions Index falling 5 points to 132. The drop in sentiment was influenced by falling crop prices since mid-February, along with increasing uncertainty surrounding agricultural trade and farm policy. Despite the decline, producers remained more optimistic about future conditions than the present, with the Future Expectations Index remaining higher than the Current Conditions Index by 12 points. This month\u2019s survey was conducted between March 10-14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Producer

Producer sentiment slips due to rising policy uncertainty.<\/strong> (Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/p><\/div>\n

Alongside the weakened sentiment, the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 5 points to 54 in March. Despite the dip, it is the second-highest reading since June 2021. The Farm Financial Performance Index also saw a drop, decreasing 8 points to 102. While slightly above 100, the index indicates that, on average, producers still anticipate their farm\u2019s financial performance to improve compared to a year ago.<\/p>\n

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index remained steady at 118 in March, matching the previous month\u2019s level and only 6 points below its reading from a year ago. Except for the late summer and early fall of 2024, when sentiment was more pessimistic, the index has generally ranged between 110 and 126 since early 2023. This suggests that farmers maintain a cautious outlook for farmland values, anticipating they will either remain stable or increase modestly in the coming year.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the overall sentiment shift in March reflects growing uncertainty, farmers remain cautiously optimistic about the future, particularly with farmland values holding steady and the outlook for strong returns in the livestock sector helping to offset weaker expectations among crop producers,\u201d said Michael Langemeier<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Since 2019, the barometer surveys have asked producers about their expectations for U.S. agricultural exports over the next five years. Historically, exports have been a primary driver of U.S. agricultural production demand and are closely linked to strong farm incomes. Producers reported they were optimistic about export growth in 2019 and 2020 surveys, but that optimism began to decline in 2021 and has continued to erode. In March, expectations for U.S. exports reached a record low in the survey, with 30% of producers anticipating a decline in exports, nearly matching the 33% who expect exports to rise.<\/p>\n

In addition to worries about exports, farmers\u2019 focus on agricultural policy has shifted over the past year. Since late 2022, barometer surveys have regularly asked producers to identify the most important policies or programs for their farms in the next five years. Before the November 2024 election, farmers reported a higher focus on interest rate policy than trade policy. However, since the election, trade policy has become a fast-growing concern, with 43% of respondents, on average, now citing it as the most critical issue impacting their farms, up sharply from an average of just 21% prior to the election.<\/p>\n

Uncertainties about trade policy and its potential impact on U.S. agricultural exports are closely tied to farmers\u2019 expectations for farm income. The March survey asked producers about the likelihood of a program similar to 2019\u2019s Market Facilitation Program, created to compensate for lower output prices due to a trade war. Approximately two-thirds of respondents believe a follow-up to such a program is either \u201clikely\u201d (52%) or \u201cvery likely\u201d (13%) to be implemented. Additionally, 74% of farmers in March indicated that the passage of a new farm bill this year was either \u201cvery important\u201d (49%) or \u201cimportant\u201d (25%) to them.<\/p>\n\n\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/strong><\/p>\n

The\u00a0Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a>\u00a0was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n\n\n

About CME Group<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the world’s leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com<\/a>) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates<\/a>, equity indexes<\/a>, foreign exchange<\/a>, energy<\/a>, agricultural products<\/a> and metals<\/a>.  The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform.  In addition, it operates one of the world’s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and, E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.  CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.  NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.  COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec and EBS are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD and EBS Group LTD, respectively. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (\u201cS&P DJI\u201d). \u201cS&P\u00ae\u201d, \u201cS&P 500\u00ae\u201d, \u201cSPY\u00ae\u201d, \u201cSPX\u00ae\u201d, US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor\u2019s Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones\u00ae, DJIA\u00ae and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About Purdue University<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Purdue University is a public research institution demonstrating excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities and with two colleges in the top four in the United States, Purdue discovers and disseminates knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 105,000 students study at Purdue across modalities and locations, including nearly 50,000 in person on the West Lafayette campus. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue\u2019s main campus has frozen tuition 13 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap \u2014 including its first comprehensive urban campus in Indianapolis, the Mitch Daniels School of Business, Purdue Computes and the One Health initiative \u2014 at\u202fhttps:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/president\/strategic-initiatives<\/strong><\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sources and Notes block:<\/strong>
Source:<\/strong> Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu<\/a>, 765-494-9557<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Media Contacts:<\/strong>
Aissa Good, Purdue University, aissa@purdue.edu<\/a>, 765-496-3884
Dana Schmidt, CME Group, dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com<\/a>, 312-872-5443<\/p>\n\n\n

Agricultural Communications:<\/strong>\u00a0Maureen Manier,\u00a0mmanier@purdue.edu<\/a>,\u00a0765-494-8415<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. \u2014 Farmer sentiment declined in March as concerns over agricultural trade and farm policy weighed on producers\u2019 outlook for the future. The\u00a0Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\u00a0fell 12 points to a reading of 140, down from 152 a month earlier. Contributing to the weakened sentiment in March was a 15-point drop in…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-media"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nProducer sentiment slips due to rising policy uncertainty\u00a0<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The August Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropped 13 points from July to a reading of 100, echoing levels seen from fall 2015 to winter 2016 during the early stages of a significant downturn in the U.S. farm economy.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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