{"id":14975,"date":"2025-08-05T09:20:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-05T13:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=14975"},"modified":"2025-08-05T09:23:35","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T13:23:35","slug":"media-farmer-sentiment-weakens-but-farmers-believe-u-s-policy-headed-in-right-direction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/media-farmer-sentiment-weakens-but-farmers-believe-u-s-policy-headed-in-right-direction\/","title":{"rendered":"Farmer sentiment weakens, but farmers\u00a0believe\u00a0U.S.\u00a0policy\u00a0headed in right direction\u00a0\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. \u2014 Farmer sentiment continues to weaken, as the\u00a0Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a>\u00a0declined again in July.\u00a0The barometer fell 11 points to 135 from June, a reading that resulted from U.S. farmers\u2019 weaker perceptions of both current conditions and future expectations. The July Current Conditions Index dropped 17 points to 127 from last month, while the Future Expectations Index posted a smaller decline of 7 points to 139. Driving the weaker income prospects for 2025 were farmers\u2019 assessment of current conditions. Despite lower scores on the three principal farmer sentiment indices, sentiment remains notably higher than at the same time a year ago. Almost three-fourths of July\u2019s survey respondents reported that U.S.\u00a0policy\u00a0is headed \u201cin the right direction.\u201d This month\u2019s barometer survey took place from July 7-11.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Farmer

Farmer sentiment weakens, but farmers say the U.S. is headed in the right direction.<\/strong> (Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/p><\/div>\n

The Farm Financial Performance Index reflected concerns about weak income prospects for 2025, falling 14 points from June to 90. This decline indicates that more farmers expect less income in 2025 compared to 2024. Weakening crop prices are eroding prospective income. The eastern Corn Belt, for example, has seen July bids for the fall harvest delivery of corn and soybeans fall 7% and 3%, respectively, compared to a month earlier. The decline in farmers\u2019 income prospects contributed to a 7-point drop in July\u2019s Farm Capital Investment Index to a reading of 53.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index also softened in the wake of the weaker income outlook for next year, dropping 5 points from June. The latest reading of 115 also leaves the index 3 points lower than last year and 10 points below two years ago. The weakness in the farmland index stemmed from a small shift among respondents expecting rising instead of weakening values during the coming year. The percentage who expected values to hold steady, meanwhile, rose 1 point to 57%.<\/p>\n

The July survey coincided with next year\u2019s farmland leasing discussions between farms and landowners. A question regarding crop producers\u2019 expectations for farmland cash rental rates revealed crop producers\u2019 expectations for 2026 rates. Even with weakening crop income prospects, 73% of respondents said they expect cash rental rates to remain mostly unchanged. Only 11% of crop producers indicated that they foresee a rental-rate decline.<\/p>\n

Producers\u2019 expectations of the farm income safety net provided by U.S. farm programs may have helped support both farmland values and farmland cash rental rates. In the July survey, 31% of respondents said they expected a stronger safety net in the 2025 farm bill than the one in 2024.<\/p>\n

More optimism prevailed among U.S. farmers about future agricultural trade prospects than in June. In July, 43% of respondents reported expectations for an increase in agricultural exports in the next five years, 2 points higher than the previous month. Similarly, fewer producers said they look for declining exports, dropping to 13% from 16%. Of those responding to a related question in July, 64% said they considered it likely that the next five years would open new foreign export markets to American agricultural goods.<\/p>\n

Another question that gauged U.S. farmers\u2019 outlook regarding trade and policy asked, \u201cWould you say things in the U.S. today are generally headed in the right direction or on the wrong track?\u201d The U.S. is \u201cheaded in the right direction,\u201d according to 74% of respondents.<\/p>\n

\u201cProducers held dim views of current conditions and future expectations, which weakened the sentiment of U.S. farmers in July,\u201d said Michael Langemeier<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a>. \u201cStill, producers showed somewhat more optimism about U.S. agricultural trade prospects in July, with the majority assessing that the U.S. policy is heading in the right direction.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n\n\n

About CME Group<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the world\u2019s leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group<\/a> enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2014 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates<\/a>, equity indexes<\/a>, foreign exchange<\/a>, energy<\/a>, agricultural products<\/a> and metals<\/a>. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex<\/a> platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world\u2019s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (\u201cS&P DJI\u201d). \u201cS&P\u00ae\u201d, \u201cS&P 500\u00ae\u201d, \u201cSPY\u00ae\u201d, \u201cSPX\u00ae\u201d, US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor\u2019s Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones\u00ae, DJIA\u00ae and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About Purdue University<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Purdue University is a public research university leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities in the United States, Purdue discovers, disseminates and deploys knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 107,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, locations and modalities, including more than 58,000 at our main campus in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue\u2019s main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap \u2014 including its comprehensive urban expansion, the Mitch Daniels School of Business, Purdue Computes and the One Health initiative \u2014 at https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/president\/strategic-initiatives<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sources and Notes block:<\/strong>
Source:<\/strong> Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu<\/a>, 765-494-9557<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Media Contacts:<\/strong>
Aissa Good, Purdue University, aissa@purdue.edu<\/a>, 765-496-3884
Dana Schmidt, CME Group, dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com<\/a>, 312-872-5443<\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. \u2014 Farmer sentiment continues to weaken, as the\u00a0Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\u00a0declined again in July.\u00a0The barometer fell 11 points to 135 from June, a reading that resulted from U.S. farmers\u2019 weaker perceptions of both current conditions and future expectations. 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