{"id":15180,"date":"2026-02-03T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=15180"},"modified":"2026-02-03T10:07:17","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T14:07:17","slug":"media-farmer-sentiment-drops-sharply-at-start-of-2026-as-economic-concerns-increase","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/media-farmer-sentiment-drops-sharply-at-start-of-2026-as-economic-concerns-increase\/","title":{"rendered":"Farmer sentiment drops sharply at start of 2026 as economic concerns increase"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Farmer sentiment weakened sharply in January, as the Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a> fell 23 points from December to a reading of 113. The decline reflected growing pessimism about both current conditions and the future outlook for U.S. agriculture; the Current Conditions Index dropped 19 points to 109, while the Future Expectations Index fell 25 points to 115. The largest shift was in producers\u2019 long-term outlook for U.S. agriculture, with the index that measures expectations for widespread good and bad times over the next five years falling to its lowest level since September 2024. Producers also expressed greater concern about agricultural exports than last month. The survey was conducted Jan. 12-16, coinciding with the U.S. Department of Agriculture\u2019s release of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on Jan. 12.<\/p>\n

\"Farmer

Farmer sentiment dropped sharply at the start of 2026 as economic concerns increased.<\/strong> (Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/p><\/div>\n

Producers reported worsening farm financial conditions compared with a year earlier. Half of the farmers surveyed indicated that their operations were worse off than a year earlier. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, more producers expect conditions to worsen than to improve. Thirty percent of respondents anticipate weaker financial performance in the coming year, compared with 20% who expect improvement. Reflecting this more cautious outlook, the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 11 points in January to 47, its lowest level since October 2024. Just 4% of producers said they plan to increase farm machinery purchases over the next year.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat stands out this month is the growing number of producers who report that higher operating-loan needs stem from carrying over unpaid debt from the previous year,\u201d said Michael Langemeier<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a>. \u201cThat points to increasing financial pressure heading into the year ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n

Since 2020, each January barometer survey has included questions about farmers\u2019 operating loans for the upcoming year. Twenty-one percent of respondents said they expect to have a larger operating loan compared with a year earlier, up from 18% last year. Among producers anticipating an increase, 31% cited carryover of unpaid operating debt from the prior year as the primary reason. This percentage has risen steadily in recent years, increasing from just 5% in 2023 to 17% in 2024 and 23% in 2025. The results align with producers\u2019 growing concerns about farm financial performance.<\/p>\n

Producers also expressed increased pessimism about the outlook for U.S. agricultural exports in January. When asked about export prospects over the next five years, 16% of respondents said they expect exports to decline, up from 5% in December. Concerns were even greater among corn and soybean farmers when the question specifically addressed soybeans, a key agricultural export. This month, 21% of corn and soybean producers said they expect soybean exports to decline over the next five years, compared with 13% the previous month. Increasing competition from Brazil is also weighing heavily on producers\u2019 minds. Eighty percent of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned or very concerned about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports relative to Brazil, including 44% stating they were very concerned.<\/p>\n

Producers remained optimistic about short-term farmland values in January, while their longer-term outlook became more cautious. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index was unchanged at 117. After reaching a record high in December, the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index fell 14 points in January to a reading of 152. Respondents cited alternative investment opportunities, net farm income and interest rates as the factors expected to have the greatest influence on farmland values.<\/p>\n

The January survey asked corn and soybean producers how they expect to use payments from the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program announced in late December. More than half of respondents said they plan to use the payments to pay down debt, while 25% indicated the funds would be used to improve working capital. The remaining respondents said the payments would go toward family living expenses (10%) or investment in farm machinery (12%).<\/p>\n

Producers\u2019 broader outlook for the U.S. economy also softened. As in recent months, respondents were asked whether the U.S. is headed in the \u201cright direction\u201d or on the \u201cwrong track.\u201d In January, 62% of producers said the U.S. is headed in the \u201cright direction,\u201d down from 75% in December 2025.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/h2>\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

About CME Group<\/h2>\n

As the world’s leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com<\/a>) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates<\/a>, equity indexes<\/a>, foreign exchange<\/a>, cryptocurrencies<\/a>, energy<\/a>, agricultural products<\/a> and metals<\/a>. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex<\/a> platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world’s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.<\/p>\n

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (\u201cS&P DJI\u201d). \u201cS&P\u00ae\u201d, \u201cS&P 500\u00ae\u201d, \u201cSPY\u00ae\u201d, \u201cSPX\u00ae\u201d, US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor\u2019s Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones\u00ae, DJIA\u00ae and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

About Purdue University<\/h2>\n

Purdue University is a public research university leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities in the United States, Purdue discovers, disseminates and deploys knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 106,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, locations and modalities, including more than 57,000 at our main campus locations in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue\u2019s main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap \u2014 including its integrated, comprehensive Indianapolis urban expansion; the Mitch Daniels School of Business; Purdue Computes; and the One Health initiative \u2014 at https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/president\/strategic-initiatives<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Sources and Notes block:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Source:<\/strong> Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu<\/a>, 765-494-9557<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Media contacts:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Aissa Good, Purdue University, aissa@purdue.edu<\/a>, 765-496-3884
Anne Burke, CME Group, anne.burke@cmegroup.com<\/a>, 312-802-6839<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Author:<\/strong> Morgan French<\/p>\n

Release date: <\/strong>February 3, 2026 at 9:30 a.m. ET<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Farmer sentiment weakened sharply in January, as the Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 23 points from December to a reading of 113. 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