{"id":1812,"date":"2018-03-06T09:28:48","date_gmt":"2018-03-06T13:28:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=1812"},"modified":"2018-03-06T10:32:03","modified_gmt":"2018-03-06T14:32:03","slug":"producer-sentiment-higher-nafta-uncertainty-looms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/producer-sentiment-higher-nafta-uncertainty-looms\/","title":{"rendered":"Producer sentiment higher; NAFTA uncertainty looms"},"content":{"rendered":"

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2013 Producer sentiment increased for the second straight month in February, but producers continued to indicate uncertainty surrounding a possible U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), according to the Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"The

The February Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed an increase in agricultural producer sentiment for the second-straight month. The barometer has jumped 14 points since December 2017. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/David Widmar)<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

The barometer read 140 in February, a 5-point increase from January\u2019s reading of 135. The increases mark a strong 14-point jump since December. February also marked the second-highest barometer reading since data collection began in 2015.<\/p>\n

The barometer is based on a monthly survey of 400 U.S. agricultural producers.<\/p>\n

The drivers of sentiment have shifted since the barometer hit a survey high of more than 150 points back in January 2017, said James Mintert<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn early 2017, producer sentiment was largely driven by an uptick in the future-looking measure of producer sentiment, the Index of Future Expectations,\u201d he said. \u201cMore recently, the barometer\u2019s upturn has been driven in part by a shift toward more positive sentiment regarding current farm financial conditions, as measured by the Index of Current Conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the February survey, researchers asked agricultural producers about the likelihood of the U.S. withdrawing from NAFTA. On a scale of 1-9, the most common response at 39 percent was a neutral rating of 5, while 34 percent of respondents said they thought a U.S. NAFTA withdrawal was likely (a rating of 6 or higher), and 29 percent thought withdrawal was unlikely (a rating of 4 or lower).<\/p>\n

\u201cTaken as a whole, the February survey indicates that producers are really uncertain about about the future of NAFTA,\u201d Mintert said. \u201cBut despite the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA, producers remain optimistic about the future of U.S. agricultural exports,\u201d Mintert said.<\/p>\n

A full 50 percent of responding producers said they expect U.S. agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, while another 37 percent said they expect exports to remain about the same. Only 13 percent said they expect U.S. agricultural exports to be lower five years from now.<\/p>\n

In addition to trade, February\u2019s survey asked producers about their expectations for corn and soybean production in the 2018 cropping year. A majority \u2013 71 percent \u2013 said soybeans would be more profitable than corn, up 4 percent from the number of respondents who expected soybeans to be more profitable when surveyed in February 2017.<\/p>\n

Despite expectations that soybeans will be more profitable, 81 percent of those surveyed said they expect their soybean acreage in 2018 will be unchanged. Only 10 percent expect to plant more soybeans than a year earlier. This differs from the February 2017 survey, when 18 percent of producers reported they expected to increase their soybean acreage.<\/p>\n

For more on producers\u2019 trade expectations and planting intentions, read the full February Ag Economy Barometer report at http:\/\/purdue.edu\/agbarometer<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University’s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

About CME Group<\/strong><\/p>\n

As the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com<\/a>) is where the world comes to manage risk. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes, including futures and options based on interest rates<\/a>, equity indexes<\/a>, foreign exchange<\/a>, energy<\/a>, agricultural products<\/a> and metals<\/a>. Around the world, CME Group brings buyers and sellers together through its CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae electronic trading platform. CME Group also operates one of the world’s leading central counterparty clearing providers through CME Clearing<\/a>, which offers clearing and settlement services across asset classes for exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. CME Group products and services ensure that businesses around the world can effectively manage risk and achieve growth.<\/p>\n

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT, Chicago Board of Trade, KCBT and Kansas City Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and S&P are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and S&P\/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Writer:<\/strong> Jennifer Stewart-Burton, 765-496-6032, jsstewar@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sources:<\/strong> James Mintert, 765-494-4310, jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

David Widmar, 765-494-0848, dwidmar@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

Chris Grams, 312-930-3435, chris.grams@cmegroup.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Related website:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture: http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag<\/a><\/p>\n

CME Group: http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Photo Caption: <\/strong>The February Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed an increase in agricultural producer sentiment for the second-straight month. The barometer has jumped 14 points since December 2017. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/David Widmar)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A publication-quality photo is available at https:\/\/news.uns.purdue.edu\/images\/2018\/february-barometer.jpg<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2013 Producer sentiment increased for the second straight month in February, but producers continued to indicate uncertainty surrounding a possible U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), according to the Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The barometer read 140 in February, a 5-point increase from January\u2019s…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-media"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nProducer sentiment higher; NAFTA uncertainty looms<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/producer-sentiment-higher-nafta-uncertainty-looms\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Producer sentiment higher; NAFTA uncertainty looms\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2013 Producer sentiment increased for the second straight month in February, but producers continued to indicate uncertainty surrounding a possible U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), according to the Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. 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