{"id":2278,"date":"2018-10-02T09:30:30","date_gmt":"2018-10-02T13:30:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=2278"},"modified":"2018-10-01T11:30:28","modified_gmt":"2018-10-01T15:30:28","slug":"ag-barometer-drops-to-lowest-level-in-two-years-as-farm-financial-conditions-worsen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/ag-barometer-drops-to-lowest-level-in-two-years-as-farm-financial-conditions-worsen\/","title":{"rendered":"Ag Barometer drops to lowest level in two years as farm financial conditions worsen"},"content":{"rendered":"

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2013 Agricultural producer sentiment dropped to its lowest level since October 2016 as producers expressed concern over worsening farm financial conditions, according to the latest Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a> reading. The September barometer reading was 114, down 15 points since August. The barometer is based on a monthly survey of 400 agricultural producers from across the country.<\/p>\n

Large declines were also seen in the barometer\u2019s two sub-indices, the Index of Future Expectations, which fell 10 points and the Index of Current Conditions, which fell 25 points, both compared to their respective August readings.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe barometer readings have been unusually volatile over the past few months,\u201d said James Mintert<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture. \u201cConcerns about the ongoing impact of trade conflicts, and especially China\u2019s tariffs on imports of U.S. ag products, continue to reverberate throughout the U.S. agricultural sector.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Ag<\/a>

Producers indicated that financial conditions on their farms deteriorated significantly as 2018 unfolded and their expectations for the future also weakened.<\/p><\/div>\n

Producers indicated that financial conditions on their farms deteriorated significantly as 2018 unfolded and their expectations for the future also weakened. In September, 54 percent of farmers surveyed said their farm\u2019s financial condition was worse than a year earlier, up from 38 percent who felt that way in June. The September survey also indicated that 33 percent of producers expect their farm\u2019s financial condition to be worse a year from now, up 15 points compared to responses received to the same question in June.<\/p>\n

Trade conflicts and tariffs continue to be a source of angst among U.S. farmers. When asked whether they expect trade conflicts to lower their farm\u2019s net income, more than 70 percent of producers surveyed said they expect lower income in 2018 because of trade disruptions with a large majority of respondents saying they expect an income decline of more than 10 percent.<\/p>\n

The negative outlook was particularly noticeable when producers were asked whether now is a good time to make large investments in farm machinery and buildings for their farming operation and on next year\u2019s farmland cash rental rates. In September, 78 percent of respondents said it was a bad time to make large investments and just 20 percent said it was a good time to invest, the lowest combined reading on large farm investments since the barometer launched in October 2015. Farmers also indicated that worsening farm financial conditions could weigh on farmland cash rental rates in 2019 as nearly two-thirds of farmers surveyed said they expect to see lower cash rental rates for farmland next year.<\/p>\n

Read the full September Ag Economy Barometer report at http:\/\/purdue.edu\/agbarometer<\/a>. This month\u2019s report includes producer\u2019s responses to questions about whether the trade conflict is influencing their soybean storage plans and their expectations for farmland values. Additional September barometer analysis can also be found in a video from Center for Commercial Agriculture Director James Mintert at https:\/\/youtu.be\/t0d4Y0OXtao<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University’s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

About CME Group<\/strong><\/p>\n

As the world\u2019s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com<\/a>) is where the world comes to manage risk. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes, including futures and options based on interest rates<\/a>, equity indexes<\/a>, foreign exchange<\/a>, energy<\/a>, agricultural products<\/a> and metals<\/a>. Around the world, CME Group brings buyers and sellers together through its CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae electronic trading platform. CME Group also operates one of the world\u2019s leading central counterparty clearing providers through CME Clearing<\/a>, which offers clearing and settlement services across asset classes for exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. CME Group products and services ensure that businesses around the world can effectively manage risk and achieve growth.<\/p>\n

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.\u00a0 NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.\u00a0 COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc.\u00a0 Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and S&P are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and S&P\/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0 All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Writer:<\/strong> Kami Goodwin, 765-494-6999, kami@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source:<\/strong> Jim Mintert, 765-496-4310, jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Media Contacts:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Aissa Good, Purdue University, 765-496-3884, aissa@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

Chris Grams, CME Group, 312-930-3435, chris.grams@cmegroup.com<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Related website:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture: http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag<\/a><\/p>\n

CME Group: http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Photo Caption:<\/strong> Ag Barometer Drops To Lowest Level in Two Years As Farm Financial Conditions Worsen. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/p>\n

A publication-quality photo is available at https:\/\/news.uns.purdue.edu\/images\/2018\/september-barometer.jpg<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2013 Agricultural producer sentiment dropped to its lowest level since October 2016 as producers expressed concern over worsening farm financial conditions, according to the latest Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reading. The September barometer reading was 114, down 15 points since August. 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