{"id":2612,"date":"2019-02-05T09:30:24","date_gmt":"2019-02-05T13:30:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=2612"},"modified":"2019-02-28T14:37:52","modified_gmt":"2019-02-28T18:37:52","slug":"usda-payments-provide-boost-to-farmer-sentiment-in-january","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/usda-payments-provide-boost-to-farmer-sentiment-in-january\/","title":{"rendered":"USDA Payments Provide Boost to Farmer Sentiment in January"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"text-align:right\"><em><a href=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/January-2019-Ag-Economy-Barometer.pdf\">Download report (pdf)<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>James Mintert and Michael Langemeier<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <em>Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/em> rebounded sharply in January to a reading of 143, a 16-point improvement compared to December and the highest Barometer reading since June 2018. The January survey provided the first opportunity to measure farmer sentiment following USDA\u2019s announcement that the second round of <em>Market Facilitation Program<\/em> (MFP) payments would be made to soybean producers and it was also the first survey taken following passage of the <em>Agricultural Improvement Act of 2018<\/em> (2018 Farm Bill), both of which appear to have helped boost farmer sentiment. In particular, total MFP payments (first and second installments, combined) to U.S. soybean farmers were estimated by USDA to be about $7.3 billion, providing a significant revenue boost to most Corn Belt farming operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig01.png\" alt=\"Figure 1. Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, October 2015-January 2019.\" class=\"wp-image-2614\" width=\"650\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig01.png 960w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig01-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig01-768x557.png 768w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig01-324x235.png 324w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><figcaption><strong>Figure 1. <\/strong>Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, October 2015-January 2019.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The jump in the barometer from December to January was\ndriven by increases in both of the barometer\u2019s sub-indices but the biggest\nimprovement was in the Index of Current Conditions, which rose to a reading of\n132 from 109 a month earlier. In comparison, the Index of Future Expectations\nrose to 148 in January, 13 points above its December reading of 135 and its\nhighest value since February 2017. The rise in the Current Conditions Index took\nit back to just below its June 2018 level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig02.png\" alt=\"Figure 2. Indices of Current Conditions and Future Expectations, October 2015-January 2019.\" class=\"wp-image-2615\" width=\"650\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig02.png 960w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig02-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig02-768x557.png 768w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig02-324x235.png 324w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><figcaption><strong>Figure 2.<\/strong> Indices of Current Conditions and Future Expectations, October 2015-January 2019.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Producers indicated they were more inclined to view making\nlarge investments in their farming operations favorably on the January survey\nthan they did a month earlier. The Large Farm Investment Index rose to 62 in\nJanuary, 11 points above its December value and the highest reading for the\ninvestment index since last June. Although the index was still below a year\nearlier in January, it has increased substantially over the last several\nmonths. The index bottomed out at 42 in September and has risen every month\nsince then, except December when a modest decline occurred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig03.png\" alt=\"Figure 3. Large Farm Investment Index, October 2015-January 2019.\" class=\"wp-image-2616\" width=\"650\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig03.png 960w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig03-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig03-768x557.png 768w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig03-324x235.png 324w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><figcaption><strong>Figure 3.<\/strong> Large Farm Investment Index, October 2015-January 2019.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although producers held a more favorable view of making\ninvestments in machinery and buildings in January than in late 2018, that\nperspective did not seem to carry over into their view of farmland values. When\nasked for their expectations for farmland values in the upcoming 12 months,\nproducers\u2019 attitude actually weakened slightly compared to November 2018 (the\nlast time farmland value questions were posed) as the percentage expecting\nhigher values declined from 17 to 13 percent and the percentage expecting lower\nprices drifted down to 21 from 22 percent. Producers longer term view of\nfarmland values also weakened compared to November as the percentage expecting\nhigher values declined 2 points to 48 percent and the percentage expecting lower\nvalues rose 4 points to 13 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What\u2019s going to happen with respect to trade negotiations\ncontinues to weigh heavily on U.S. farmers\u2019 minds. In January, producers\nindicated that they were a bit more optimistic about the future for\nagricultural trade as 63 percent responded that they expect U.S. ag exports to\nincrease over the next 5 years, compared to 59 percent in December. More\nsignificantly, the percentage of farmers expecting ag exports to decline over\nthe next five years declined to just 7 percent, the lowest percentage since we\nfirst posed this question in May 2017, compared to 26 percent a month earlier. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig04.png\" alt=\"Figure 4. Over the Next 5 Years, Do You Think Agricultural Exports Are More Likely to Increase, Decrease, or Remain About the Same?, May 2017-January 2019.\" class=\"wp-image-2617\" width=\"650\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig04.png 960w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig04-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig04-768x557.png 768w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig04-324x235.png 324w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><figcaption><strong>Figure 4.<\/strong> Over the Next 5 Years, Do You Think Agricultural Exports Are More Likely to Increase, Decrease, or Remain About the Same?, May 2017-January 2019.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There continues to be a lot of uncertainty regarding a\npossible shift in acreage between corn and soybeans in 2019. We asked producers\nthat planted soybeans in 2018 what their plans are for 2019. Twenty-five\npercent of respondents that planted soybeans last year said they plan to reduce\ntheir soybean acreage in 2019 while two-thirds (67%) expect no change in their\nsoybean acreage. Among those soybean farmers that expect to reduce soybean\nacreage, 58 percent of them expect to reduce their soybean acreage by more than\n10% whereas the remaining 42 percent expect their acreage decline to be 10% or\nless. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"960\" height=\"696\" src=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig05-1.png\" alt=\"Figure 5. Planned Change in 2019 Soybean Acreage vs. 2018 by Soybean Farmers That Plan to Reduce their Soybean Acreage, January 2019.\" class=\"wp-image-2662\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig05-1.png 960w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig05-1-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig05-1-768x557.png 768w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Fig05-1-324x235.png 324w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><figcaption><strong>Figure 5.<\/strong> Planned Change in 2019 Soybean Acreage vs. 2018 by Soybean Farmers That Plan to Reduce their Soybean Acreage, January 2019.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looking ahead to the rest of 2019, producers indicated that 2019 is poised to be a challenging year for many farm operations. A majority of producers (57%) indicated they expect their farms\u2019 operating expenses to increase this year with 38 percent expecting operating expenses to be about the same, both compared to 2018. When asked if they expect livestock and grain prices to increase to levels that will substantially improve their farm\u2019s financial situation in the next year, 70 percent of respondents said no. More specifically, when asked about their soybean price expectations, four out of 10 respondents (43%) said they expect November 2019 soybean futures to fall below $8.50 sometime between mid-January and summer 2019. Looking at their farm\u2019s financial situation, 25 percent of respondents said they expect to have a larger farm operating loan in 2019 than in 2018. Among those expecting to have a larger operating loan, over half (53%) said it was because input costs increased. However, just over one-fourth (27%) said it was because they were carrying over unpaid operating debt from prior years, suggesting that their farm operation is under financial stress. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Wrapping Up<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Producer sentiment improved markedly in January compared to\na month earlier. Producers view of current conditions and expectations for the\nfuture both improved, but the large improvement in farmers\u2019 perspective on\ncurrent conditions was the biggest driver behind the Ag Economy Barometer\u2019s\nincrease. The boost in revenue provided by USDA\u2019s MFP payments and the passage\nof the 2018 Farm Bill, both of which took place in December but after the\nDecember survey was conducted, were likely responsible for some of the\nimprovement in farmers\u2019 sentiment. The sentiment improvement spilled over into\na more optimistic perspective on making large investments in items like\nmachinery and buildings as the Large Farm Investment Index rose 11 points in\nDecember to reach its highest level since last June. Although producers looked\nmore favorably upon investing in machinery and buildings, that did not carry\nover into their views regarding future farmland values which weakened somewhat\nover both a 12-month and 5-year time horizon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looking ahead to plans for 2019, nearly one-fourth of\nfarmers that planted soybeans in 2018 plan to reduce their soybean acreage this\nyear whereas just 8 percent plan to increase their soybean acreage. Among those\nthat plan to reduce acreage, 58 percent plan to reduce their acreage by 10\npercent or more. This was a lower percentage than recorded on the November 2018\nsurvey when 69 percent of growers planning to reduce soybean acreage said they expected\nto reduce soybean acreage by 10 percent or more. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Farmer optimism improved for January as USDA makes payments. Jim Mintert shares more on the January Ag Economy Barometer results at <a href=\"https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo\">purdue.ag\/barometervideo<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2612","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-report"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>USDA Payments Provide Boost to Farmer Sentiment in January<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rebounded sharply in January to a reading of 143, a 16-point improvement compared to December and the highest Barometer reading since June 2018.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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