{"id":3461,"date":"2019-05-07T09:00:18","date_gmt":"2019-05-07T13:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=3461"},"modified":"2019-05-07T09:30:48","modified_gmt":"2019-05-07T13:30:48","slug":"producer-sentiment-plummets-trade-dispute-and-weak-financial-performance-wear-on-farmers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/producer-sentiment-plummets-trade-dispute-and-weak-financial-performance-wear-on-farmers\/","title":{"rendered":"Producer sentiment plummets; trade dispute and weak financial performance wear on farmers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns has-2-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2013 In April, agricultural\nproducer sentiment plunged as the <a href=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/\">Purdue University\/CME\nGroup Ag Economy Barometer<\/a> declined 18 points to a reading of 115, down\nfrom 133 in March. The barometer, a sentiment index, is based on a monthly\nsurvey of 400 agricultural producers across the U.S. This marks the fourth largest\none-month drop since data collection began in October 2015. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The barometer\u2019s decline was driven by both worsening\nperceptions of both current economic conditions and weaker expectations for the\nfuture. The Index of Current Conditions fell 21 points to a reading of 99, and\nthe Index of Future Expectations declined 16 points to a reading of 123.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"742\" src=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Ag_Economy_Barometer_Apr_2019-1024x742.jpg\" alt=\"Producer sentiment plummets; trade dispute and weak financial performance wear on farmers. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)\" class=\"wp-image-3495\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Ag_Economy_Barometer_Apr_2019-1024x742.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Ag_Economy_Barometer_Apr_2019-300x217.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Ag_Economy_Barometer_Apr_2019-768x557.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Ag_Economy_Barometer_Apr_2019-324x235.jpg 324w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Producer sentiment plummets; trade dispute and weak financial performance wear on farmers. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;\u201cFarmers are becoming increasingly anxious over their future financial performance,\u201d said <a href=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/team\/jim-mintert\/\">James Mintert<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture. \u201cProducers have taken stock of their financial position and prospects for 2019 as they head into planting season and are concerned about the uncertainty arising from the on-going trade disputes with key ag trading partners. Right now it seems that producers are being cautious.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That caution is seen in producers\u2019 attitudes toward making large investments in their farming operation. In the April survey, when asked whether they feel now is a \u201cgood time\u201d or \u201cbad time\u201d to make large farm investments, only 22 percent of farmers stated it was a \u201cgood time\u201d while 74 percent stated it was a \u201cbad time.\u201d That combination pushed the Large Farm Investment Index down 9 points compared to March. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Producers also expressed\nless optimism regarding prospects for resolution of the on-going soybean trade\ndispute with China. On the April survey, only 28 percent of respondents felt\nthat the dispute would be resolved before July 1, down from 45 percent in\nMarch. However, 71 percent still feel the dispute will ultimately be resolved\nin a way that benefits U.S. agriculture. In a separate question, when asked\nwhether they felt that the U.S. should rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership\n(TPP), 47 percent were favorable, 28 percent were not in favor, and 25 percent\nstated they were uncertain. &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since January, more\nsurvey respondents are indicating they have concerns about commodity prices. As\na result, Purdue researchers asked additional questions related to commodity\nprices in order to understand producers\u2019 perspectives on the future direction\nof corn and soybean futures prices. For the past four months, those results have\nbeen compared with futures and options market-based probability estimates to\ndetermine whether there is a significant difference in sentiment between the producers\nand futures and options market participants. Early findings indicate producers have\nconsistently had a more negative outlook compared to those who participate directly\nin the futures and options markets. Moreover, producers became relatively less\noptimistic over the course of the winter and early spring. This increasingly\npessimistic view of corn and soybean prices may be playing a role in the reduction\nin barometer sentiment as well as the recent drop in both the Index of Current\nConditions and the Index of Future Expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Read the full April Ag Economy Barometer report at <a href=\"https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agbarometer\">https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agbarometer<\/a>. The\nreport includes insights into producers\u2019 year-over-year attitudes toward\nfarmland values and a breakdown of the comparison between producers and futures\nmarket participants regarding the future direction of corn and soybean futures.\nThe site also offers additional resources, such as past reports, charts and survey\nmethodology, and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and\nwebinars. Each month Dr. Mintert also provides an in-depth analysis of the barometer.\nThat video can be viewed at <a href=\"https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo\">https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and\nIndex of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the\nfollowing ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the Purdue\nUniversity Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/Pages\/default.aspx\">Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a>\nwas founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational\nprograms for farmers. Housed within Purdue University&#8217;s Department of\nAgricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute\nresearch and educational programs that address the different needs of managing\nin today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About CME Group<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the world&#8217;s leading and\nmost diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">www.cmegroup.com<\/a>) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets,\noptimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide\nto efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer\nthe widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes\nbased on&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/interest-rates\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">interest rates<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/equity-index\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">equity indexes<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/fx\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">foreign exchange<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/energy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">energy<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/agricultural\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">agricultural products<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/metals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">metals<\/a>.&nbsp; The company offers futures and options on futures trading\nthrough the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/globex\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange\ntrading on the EBS platform.&nbsp; In\naddition, it operates one of the world&#8217;s leading central counterparty clearing\nproviders, CME Clearing.&nbsp; With a range of pre- and\npost-trade products and services underpinning the entire lifecycle of a trade,\nCME Group also offers optimization and reconciliation services through\nTriOptima, and trade processing services through Traiana.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CME Group, the Globe\nlogo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and, E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange\nInc.&nbsp; CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of\nthe City of Chicago, Inc.&nbsp; NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and\nClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.&nbsp; COMEX is a\ntrademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec,\nEBS, TriOptima, and Traiana are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD, EBS Group\nLTD, TriOptima AB, and Traiana, Inc., respectively.<strong>&nbsp; <\/strong>Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial\nAverage, S&amp;P 500 and S&amp;P are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones\nTrademark Holdings LLC, Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s Financial Services LLC and\nS&amp;P\/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for\nuse by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.&nbsp; All other trademarks are the\nproperty of their respective owners.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Writer:<\/strong> Kami\nGoodwin, 765-494-6999, <a href=\"mailto:kami@purdue.edu\">kami@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Source:<\/strong> Jim\nMintert, 765-494-4310, <a href=\"mailto:jmintert@purdue.edu\">jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Media Contacts:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aissa Good, Purdue University, 765-496-3884, <a href=\"mailto:aissa@purdue.edu\">aissa@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Matt Stroud, CME Group, 312-561-2269, <a href=\"mailto:matthew.stroud@cmegroup.com\">matthew.stroud@cmegroup.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Related website:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture: <a href=\"http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag\">http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CME Group: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/\">http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Photo Caption:<\/strong>\nProducer sentiment plummets; trade dispute and weak financial performance wear\non farmers. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A publication-quality photo is available at <a href=\"https:\/\/news.uns.purdue.edu\/images\/2019\/april-barometer.jpg\">https:\/\/news.uns.purdue.edu\/images\/2019\/april-barometer.jpg<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2013 In April, agricultural producer sentiment plunged as the Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined 18 points to a reading of 115, down from 133 in March. The barometer, a sentiment index, is based on a monthly survey of 400 agricultural producers across the U.S. This marks the fourth&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-media"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Producer sentiment plummets; trade dispute and weak financial performance wear on farmers<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/producer-sentiment-plummets-trade-dispute-and-weak-financial-performance-wear-on-farmers\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Producer sentiment plummets; trade dispute and weak financial performance wear on farmers\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2013 In April, agricultural producer sentiment plunged as the Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined 18 points to a reading of 115, down from 133 in March. 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