{"id":4390,"date":"2020-05-05T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2020-05-05T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=4390"},"modified":"2020-05-05T09:33:13","modified_gmt":"2020-05-05T13:33:13","slug":"ag-barometer-index-drops-below-100-as-coronavirus-disrupts-agriculture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/ag-barometer-index-drops-below-100-as-coronavirus-disrupts-agriculture\/","title":{"rendered":"Ag barometer index drops below 100 as coronavirus disrupts agriculture"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014 Coronavirus concerns, commodity price declines and supply-chain disruptions sink producer sentiment to a three-year low, according to the April Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a>. The barometer recorded a reading of 96, marking the first time the barometer has fallen below 100 since October 2016 registering 72 points below its record-high just two-months prior. The Ag Economy Barometer<\/em> is based on responses from 400 U.S. agricultural producers and this month\u2019s survey was conducted from April 19-24, 2020.<\/p>\n

\"Ag

Ag Barometer index drops below 100 as coronavirus disrupts agriculture.<\/strong> (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/p><\/div>\n

Producers\u2019 expectations for current and future agricultural economic conditions also declined sharply. The Index of Current Conditions<\/em> suffered its largest one-month drop, down 39 points in April to a reading of 72, and the Index of Future Expectations<\/em> fell 18 points to a reading of 108. April\u2019s decline pushed the Current Conditions Index<\/em> 53 percent below its all-time high set back in February, while the Future Expectations Index<\/em> fell 39 percent over the same two-month time period.<\/p>\n

\u201cOver the past two-months, producers have felt the first shockwaves being created by the coronavirus,\u201d said James Mintert<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture. \u201cDisruptions in the supply-chain are causing many to look at ways they can mitigate risk in this uncertain environment and sharp declines in commodity prices have added significant financial pressure on many U.S. farming operations.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the April survey, two-thirds of respondents indicated they were \u201cvery worried\u201d (39 percent) or \u201cfairly worried\u201d (28 percent) about the impact of coronavirus on their farm\u2019s profitability and over half (54%) said they anticipate applying for one of the federal government\u2019s COVID-19 related financial assistance programs. When asked their number one concern regarding their farm and COVID-19, 42 percent of respondents said they were worried about their farm\u2019s access to markets, 37 percent said financial, while just 13 percent said health and safety. However, 35 percent of this month\u2019s respondents said they have already implemented changes in their farm\u2019s operations in response to COVID-19 concerns.<\/p>\n

Underpinning the rise in pessimism among farmers was a swift decline in principal commodity prices over the last couple of months. Commodity futures prices declined sharply from early March through late April. Over the course of less than two months, July corn futures declined 15 percent and July soybean futures prices fell by 8 percent while June live cattle and June lean hog futures prices declined 21 percent and 33 percent, respectively. The sharp drop in commodity prices added to an already strained financial situation for many farmers. When asked to compare their farms\u2019 expected financial performance in 2020 to 2019, 55 percent of respondents in the April survey said they expect a worse financial performance in 2020 than in 2019.<\/p>\n

That pessimism also trickled down to producers\u2019 near-term farmland price expectations.  When asked to look 12-months ahead, 35 percent of respondents said they expect farmland values to decline, up from only 13 percent expecting a decline on both the January and February of 2020 surveys. However, producers’ longer-term farmland price expectations were more optimistic.  When asked to look ahead five years, 44 percent of producers expect higher farmland values, up from 41 percent who said they expect higher values in the March survey.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe divergence between producers 12-month and 5-year ahead expectations for farmland values suggests they view the current disruption in agriculture and food markets to be temporary and are looking for markets to rebound down the road,\u201d said Mintert.<\/p>\n

Read the full Ag Economy Barometer report at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agbarometer<\/a>. The site also offers additional resources \u2013 such as past reports, charts and survey methodology \u2013 and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and webinars. Each month, the Purdue Center for Commercial Agricultural provides a short video analysis of the barometer results, available at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/h2>\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

About CME Group<\/h2>\n

As the world\u2019s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com<\/a>) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates<\/a>, equity indexes<\/a>, foreign exchange<\/a>, energy<\/a>, agricultural products<\/a> and metals<\/a>.  The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world\u2019s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing. With a range of pre- and post-trade products and services underpinning the entire lifecycle of a trade, CME Group also offers optimization and reconciliation services through TriOptima, and trade processing services through Traiana.<\/p>\n

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec, EBS, TriOptima, and Traiana are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD, EBS Group LTD, TriOptima AB, and Traiana, Inc., respectively. Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and S&P are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor\u2019s Financial Services LLC and S&P\/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Writer:<\/strong> Kami Goodwin, 765-494-6999, kami@purdue.edu<\/a>
Source:<\/strong> Jim Mintert, 765-494-7004, jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

Media Contacts:
<\/strong>Aissa Good, Purdue University, 765-496-3884, aissa@purdue.edu<\/a>
Matt Stroud, CME Group, 312-561-2269, matthew.stroud@cmegroup.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Related website:
<\/strong>Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture: http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag <\/a>
CME Group: http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Photo Caption:<\/strong> Ag Barometer index drops below 100 as coronavirus disrupts agriculture. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/p>\n

A publication-quality photo is available at https:\/\/news.uns.purdue.edu\/images\/2020\/april-barometer.jpg<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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