{"id":4798,"date":"2020-12-01T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2020-12-01T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=4798"},"modified":"2020-11-30T11:07:46","modified_gmt":"2020-11-30T15:07:46","slug":"farmer-sentiment-pulls-back-post-election-regulation-trade-and-taxes-rated-as-top-concerns-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/farmer-sentiment-pulls-back-post-election-regulation-trade-and-taxes-rated-as-top-concerns-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Farmer sentiment pulls back post-election: regulation, trade, and taxes rated as top concerns"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014 The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a> dropped 16 points to a reading of 167 in November, down from its all-time high set just one month ago. The decrease in sentiment was led by farmers\u2019 more pessimistic view towards the future of the agricultural economy with the Index of Future Expectations<\/em> falling 30 points to a reading of 156 in November. The on-going rally in commodity prices and CFAP-2 payments continued to support producers\u2019 view of current economic conditions as the Index of<\/em> Current Conditions<\/em> rose 9 points in November to 187, an all-time high for the index.<\/p>\n

\"Farmer

Farmer sentiment pulls back post-election: regulation, trade, and taxes rated as top concerns.<\/strong> (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/p><\/div>\n

The Ag Economy Barometer<\/em> is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers\u2019 responses to a telephone survey. This month\u2019s survey was conducted after the election from November 9-13, 2020.<\/p>\n

\u201cProducers were more pessimistic about future economic conditions on their farms in November than they were just a month earlier,\u201d said James Mintert<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture. \u201cThis is the opposite of what happened following the November 2016 election. That year producers became much more optimistic about the future following the election and, in turn, that optimism about the future helped drive the Ag Economy Barometer up sharply in late 2016 and early 2017.\u201d<\/p>\n

To learn more about what factors might be motivating the shift in producers\u2019 sentiment pre- and post-November election, a series of questions focused on producers\u2019 future expectations for environmental regulations, taxes and other key aspects of the agricultural economy, were included on both the October and November surveys. Comparing results from October to November, far more producers in November said they expect to see: 1) environmental regulations impacting agriculture to tighten over the next five years; 2) higher income tax rates for farms and ranches; 3) higher estate tax rates for farms and ranches; 4) less government support for the U.S. ethanol industry and 5) a weaker farm income safety net provided by U.S. government program policies. For a complete breakdown of the results, view the full November Ag Economy Barometer report<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Farmer

Farmer expectations regarding changes in policies affecting U.S. Agriculture in the next 5 years, October vs. November 2020.<\/strong> (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/p><\/div>\n

Since the summer of 2019, Purdue researchers have been tracing producers\u2019 perceptions regarding the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China\u00ad\u2013specifically, whether they think the dispute will be resolved soon and the outcome will ultimately benefit U.S. agriculture. In January and February of this year, 80 percent of survey respondents said they expected to see the trade dispute with China be resolved in a way that benefits U.S. agriculture. However, on the November survey, the percentage of farmers expecting a favorable outcome for U.S. agriculture declined to 50 percent, the lowest percentage recorded since the question was first included on a barometer survey. In a related question, only 44 percent of respondents to the November survey said they think it\u2019s likely that China will fulfill the Phase One Trade Agreement requirements, down from 59 percent a month earlier.<\/p>\n

Read the full Ag Economy Barometer report at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agbarometer<\/a>. This month\u2019s report also asked farmers about their intentions on making large investments in their farming operations as well as their expectations for farmland values in the next 12-months and five-years. The site also offers additional resources \u2013 such as past reports, charts and survey methodology \u2013 and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and webinars.<\/p>\n

Each month, the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture provides a short video analysis of the barometer results, available at\u00a0https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo<\/a>, and for even more information, check out the\u00a0Purdue Commercial AgCast<\/em>\u00a0podcast. It includes a detailed breakdown of each month\u2019s barometer, in addition to a discussion of recent agricultural news that impacts farmers. Available now at\u00a0https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agcast<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/h2>\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

About CME Group<\/h2>\n

As the world\u2019s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com<\/a>) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on\u00a0interest rates<\/a>,\u00a0equity indexes<\/a>,\u00a0foreign exchange<\/a>,\u00a0energy<\/a>,\u00a0agricultural products<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0metals<\/a>.\u00a0 The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world\u2019s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing. With a range of pre- and post-trade products and services underpinning the entire lifecycle of a trade, CME Group also offers optimization and reconciliation services through TriOptima, and trade processing services through Traiana.<\/p>\n

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.\u00a0NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.\u00a0COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec, EBS, TriOptima, and Traiana are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD, EBS Group LTD, TriOptima AB, and Traiana, Inc., respectively. Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and S&P are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor\u2019s Financial Services LLC and S&P\/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Writer:<\/strong> Kami Goodwin, 765-494-6999, kami@purdue.edu<\/a>
Source:<\/strong> James Mintert, 765-494-7004, jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

Media Contacts:
<\/strong>Aissa Good, Purdue University, 765-496-3884, aissa@purdue.edu<\/a>
Dana Schmidt, CME Group, 312-872-5443,\u00a0dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Related website:
<\/strong>Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture: http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag <\/a>
CME Group: http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Photo Caption 1:\u00a0<\/strong>Farmer sentiment pulls back post-election: regulation, trade, and taxes rated as top concerns. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy\u00a0Barometer\/James Mintert) https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/uns\/images\/2020\/AgEconomyBarometer_Nov2020_1LO.jpg<\/a><\/p>\n

Photo Caption 2:\u00a0<\/strong>Farmer expectations regarding changes in policies affecting U.S. Agriculture in the next 5 years, October vs. November 2020. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy\u00a0Barometer\/James Mintert)\u00a0 https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/uns\/images\/2020\/AgEconomyBarometer_Nov2020_2LO.jpg<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014 The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropped 16 points to a reading of 167 in November, down from its all-time high set just one month ago. 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