{"id":4995,"date":"2021-03-02T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-03-02T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=4995"},"modified":"2021-03-01T13:44:30","modified_gmt":"2021-03-01T17:44:30","slug":"producers-bullish-about-farmland-values-amid-strong-current-conditions-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/producers-bullish-about-farmland-values-amid-strong-current-conditions-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Producers bullish about farmland values amid strong current conditions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014 Farmers continue to report strong current economic conditions on their farms, according to the February Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a>. While the overall reading for the Ag Economy Barometer <\/em>changed very little compared to January, down 2 points to a reading of 165 in February; the Index of Current Conditions<\/em> remained near its all-time high at a reading of 200. Meanwhile, the Index of Future Expectations<\/em> continued a four-month decline, down 20% from its October peak, to a reading of 148.<\/p>\n

The Ag Economy Barometer<\/em> is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers\u2019 responses to a telephone survey. This month\u2019s survey was conducted from February 15-19, 2021.<\/p>\n

\"Producers

Producers bullish about farmland values amid strong current conditions.<\/strong> (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert).<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cThe ongoing strength in ag commodity prices and farm income continue to support producers\u2019 perspective on current conditions,\u201d said James Mintert<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture. \u201cAt the same time, concerns about possible policy changes affecting agriculture, and eroding confidence in future growth in ag trade, continue to weigh on producers\u2019 future expectations.\u201d<\/p>\n

Producers are very bullish about farmland values. Fifty-one percent of respondents in February said they expect farmland values to rise during the next year, up 8 points from the January survey. U.S. farmers were also optimistic about the long-run trend in farmland values, as 62 percent of respondents indicated farmland values are likely to rise over the next five years.<\/p>\n

That same bullishness spilled over into expectations for rising farmland cash rental rates in 2021. In February, more producers (36%) now say they expect cash rental rates to increase, compared to just 18% who felt that way in December. Those expecting rates to remain unchanged fell from 75% to 61%, the decrease primarily due to more producers\u2019 expecting rental rates to increase.<\/p>\n

The percentage of farms expecting to see a better financial performance in 2021 compared to the prior year has been rising since last summer and on the February survey reached 37 percent, up 4 points from January and 25 points higher than last July. When asked about their perception of the most critical risk facing their operation, 29% ranked production, up 8 percent from February 2020, and 18% ranked financial risk, down 8 percent from one year ago.<\/p>\n

Each winter the barometer survey asks respondents about plans for growth on their farms. This winter: 50% of commercial-scale farms reported that they either have no plans to grow or plan to exit\/retire in the next five years; 17% expect their farm operation to grow at a rate of less than 5 percent annually; 25% expect their operation to grow 5 to 10 percent annually; and 9 percent expect their farm to grow more than 10 percent per year. Overall, Mintert said, these results point towards continued consolidation in the farm sector.<\/p>\n

Although producers are optimistic about the current situation on their farms, confidence in the future continues to erode. Reasons behind the 20% decline in the Index of Future Expectations<\/em> that has taken place since October appear centered on concerns about the long-term future for agricultural trade and uncertainty about a variety of policies affecting agriculture. In February, only 45% of farmers expected ag exports to increase over the next 5 years, down from 65% in October. The percentage expecting a favorable outcome to the U.S. trade dispute with China is also down, 37% in February compared to 65% in October.<\/p>\n

\u201cEven though we have seen a recent \u2018ramp-up\u2019 in ag exports to China, producers remain worried about the future of ag trade,\u201d said Michael Langemeier<\/a>, associate director of the Center for Commercial Agriculture. \u201cThey are also concerned about the possibility of more restrictive environmental regulations as well as higher estate and income taxes, all expressed on previous barometer surveys. Uncertainty about all these factors appears to be the motivation for the divergence between farmers\u2019 perspective on the current versus the future situation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Interest in alternative protein sources has increased markedly over the last year. Respondents on the February survey were asked several questions to learn about their perspectives on the possible impact of alternative proteins on U.S. agriculture. More than half of producers indicated they expect to see alternative protein sources increase market share in the years ahead (55% expect a total protein market share of up to 10 percent; 15% expect total market share to exceed 10 percent) and, indicated that if the market share becomes significant, they think it\u2019s likely to reduce aggregate farm income.<\/p>\n

Read the full Ag Economy Barometer report at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agbarometer<\/a>. The site also offers additional resources \u2013 such as past reports, charts and survey methodology \u2013 and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and webinars.<\/p>\n

Each month, the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture provides a short video analysis of the barometer results, available at\u00a0https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo<\/a>, and for even more information, check out the\u00a0Purdue Commercial AgCast<\/em>\u00a0podcast. It includes a detailed breakdown of each month\u2019s barometer, in addition to a discussion of recent agricultural news that impacts farmers. Available now at\u00a0https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agcast<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.<\/p>\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/h2>\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

About CME Group<\/h2>\n

As the world\u2019s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com<\/a>) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on\u00a0interest rates<\/a>,\u00a0equity indexes<\/a>,\u00a0foreign exchange<\/a>,\u00a0energy<\/a>,\u00a0agricultural products<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0metals<\/a>.\u00a0 The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world\u2019s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing. With a range of pre- and post-trade products and services underpinning the entire lifecycle of a trade, CME Group also offers optimization and reconciliation services through TriOptima, and trade processing services through Traiana.<\/p>\n

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.\u00a0NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.\u00a0COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec, EBS, TriOptima, and Traiana are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD, EBS Group LTD, TriOptima AB, and Traiana, Inc., respectively. Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and S&P are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor\u2019s Financial Services LLC and S&P\/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Writer:<\/strong> Kami Goodwin, 765-494-6999, kami@purdue.edu<\/a>
Source:<\/strong> James Mintert, 765-494-7004, jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

Media Contacts:
<\/strong>Aissa Good, Purdue University, 765-496-3884, aissa@purdue.edu<\/a>
Dana Schmidt, CME Group, 312-872-5443,\u00a0dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Related website:
<\/strong>Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture: http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag <\/a>
CME Group: http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Photo Caption: <\/strong>Producers bullish about farmland values amid strong current conditions. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy\u00a0Barometer\/James Mintert). https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/uns\/images\/2021\/AgEconomyBarometer_Feb2021LO.jpg<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014 Farmers continue to report strong current economic conditions on their farms, according to the February Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. While the overall reading for the Ag Economy Barometer changed very little compared to January, down 2 points to a reading of 165 in February; the Index of…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-media"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nProducers bullish about farmland values amid strong current conditions<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose 27 points to a reading of 183 in October and set an all-time high for the index.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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