{"id":5144,"date":"2021-06-01T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-06-01T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=5144"},"modified":"2021-06-01T08:33:12","modified_gmt":"2021-06-01T12:33:12","slug":"media-ag-economy-barometer-declines-sharply-producers-remain-bullish-on-farmland-values","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/media-ag-economy-barometer-declines-sharply-producers-remain-bullish-on-farmland-values\/","title":{"rendered":"Ag Economy Barometer declines sharply; producers remain bullish on farmland values"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014 The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a> saw a significant decline in May, down 20 points to a reading of 158. This marks the lowest reading for the survey since September of 2020. Producers were less optimistic about both current conditions and the future of the agricultural economy. The Index of Current Conditions<\/em> dropped 17 points to a reading of 178 and the Index of Future Expectations <\/em>fell 20 points to a reading of 149. The Ag Economy Barometer<\/em> is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers\u2019 responses to a telephone survey. This month\u2019s survey was conducted from May 10-14, 2021.<\/p>\n

\"Ag

Ag Economy Barometer declines sharply; producers remain bullish on farmland values.<\/strong> (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cThe potential for changing tax rules and rising input costs appeared to be on producers minds this month and were the primary drivers for the Ag Barometer<\/i>\u2019s decline,\u201d said James Mintert<\/span><\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture.<\/s><\/p>\n

Producers expressed less optimism about their farm\u2019s financial performance this month. The Farm Financial Performance Index<\/em> declined to 126 from a record high 138 in April. Although May\u2019s index was 12 points lower than a month earlier, it was still the second highest reading since the financial performance question was first posed in spring 2018 suggesting strong crop prices continue to support farm incomes.<\/p>\n

In May, more producers said they expect to reduce their machinery purchases and construction plans in the next year. The Farm Capital Investment Index<\/em> declined 10 points in May to a reading of 65. This month\u2019s survey included a new question focused on producers\u2019 plans to construct new buildings or grain bins. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said their construction plans for the upcoming year are lower compared to a year ago and just 28% said their construction plans were about the same as a year ago. Mintert said, \u201crising construction costs are likely a contributing factor to weaker construction plans.\u201d<\/p>\n

Producers remain very concerned about possible changes to U.S. tax policy. In a series of questions first posed last month, 78% of survey respondents said they are very concerned that the changes in tax policy being considered will make passing their farm on to the next generation more difficult. Additionally, 83% of producers expect capital gains tax rates to rise over the next five years; 71% are very concerned about a possible loss of the step-up in cost basis for inherited estates; and 66% say they are very concerned about a possible reduction in the estate tax exemption for inherited estates.<\/p>\n

After declining last month, the Long-Run Farmland Value Expectations Index<\/em> rose 10 points to a record high reading of 158, with two-thirds of producers in the survey saying they expect farmland values to rise over the next five years. The Short-Run Farmland Value Expectation Index<\/em> remained near its all-time high, falling just 2 points below the record high set in April of this year.<\/p>\n

Producers also remain bullish on cash rental rates. On the May survey, producers who grow corn or soybeans were asked about their expectations for cash rental rates in 2022. Two-thirds (65%) of the corn\/soybean growers in the survey expect next year\u2019s cash rental rates in their home area to rise above 2021\u2019s. In a follow-up question, producers who said they expect rental rates to rise were asked by how much they expect them to rise in the next year. Over 40 percent (43%) of respondents said they expect 2022 cash rental rates to rise by 10 percent or more and 39% said they expect cash rental rates to rise from 5 to as much as 10 percent.<\/p>\n

Producers\u2019 expectations for good versus bad times in U.S. agriculture have undergone a marked shift. For example, in May just 27% of respondents said they expect good times in U.S. agriculture during the next five years, the lowest reading in the survey\u2019s history and down 12 points from a month earlier. One driver of this shift appears to be the discrepancy between expectations for the crops versus livestock sectors in the upcoming five years. This month over half (54%) of respondents said they expect widespread good times for the crops sector in the next five years whereas just one-fourth (26%) of producers said they expect widespread good times for the livestock sector.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe difference in expectations for these two principal sectors of the agricultural economy could help explain why producers appear to be very bullish about farmland values and cash rental rates while at the same time expressing less optimism about both current conditions and future expectations for the agricultural economy overall,\u201d said Mintert.<\/p>\n

Read the full Ag Economy Barometer report at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agbarometer<\/a>. The site also offers additional resources \u2013 such as past reports, charts and survey methodology \u2013 and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and webinars.<\/p>\n

Each month, the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture provides a short video analysis of the barometer results, available at\u00a0https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo<\/a>, and for even more information, check out the\u00a0Purdue Commercial AgCast<\/em>\u00a0podcast. It includes a detailed breakdown of each month\u2019s barometer, in addition to a discussion of recent agricultural news that impacts farmers. Available now at\u00a0https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agcast<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.<\/p>\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/h2>\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

About CME Group<\/h2>\n

As the world\u2019s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com<\/a>) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on\u00a0interest rates<\/a>,\u00a0equity indexes<\/a>,\u00a0foreign exchange<\/a>,\u00a0energy<\/a>,\u00a0agricultural products<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0metals<\/a>.\u00a0 The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world\u2019s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing. With a range of pre- and post-trade products and services underpinning the entire lifecycle of a trade, CME Group also offers optimization and reconciliation services through TriOptima, and trade processing services through Traiana.<\/p>\n

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.\u00a0NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.\u00a0COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec, EBS, TriOptima, and Traiana are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD, EBS Group LTD, TriOptima AB, and Traiana, Inc., respectively. Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and S&P are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor\u2019s Financial Services LLC and S&P\/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Writer:<\/strong> Kami Goodwin, 765-494-6999, kami@purdue.edu<\/a>
Source:<\/strong> James Mintert, 765-494-7004, jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

Media Contacts:
<\/strong>Aissa Good, Purdue University, 765-496-3884, aissa@purdue.edu<\/a>
Dana Schmidt, CME Group, 312-872-5443,\u00a0dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Related website:
<\/strong>Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture: http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag <\/a>
CME Group: http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Photo Caption:
<\/strong>Ag Economy Barometer declines sharply; producers remain bullish on farmland values. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy\u00a0Barometer\/James Mintert). https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/uns\/images\/2021\/ag-barometer521LO.jpg<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014 The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer saw a significant decline in May, down 20 points to a reading of 158. This marks the lowest reading for the survey since September of 2020. Producers were less optimistic about both current conditions and the future of the agricultural economy. 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