{"id":5205,"date":"2021-07-06T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-07-06T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=5205"},"modified":"2021-07-06T08:55:18","modified_gmt":"2021-07-06T12:55:18","slug":"media-ag-economy-barometer-falls-for-second-month-rising-input-costs-causing-concern-for-farmers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/media-ag-economy-barometer-falls-for-second-month-rising-input-costs-causing-concern-for-farmers\/","title":{"rendered":"Ag Economy Barometer falls for second month; rising input costs causing concern for farmers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014 The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a> marks a second month of sharp declines, down 21 points to a reading of 137 in June. Producers were less optimistic about both current conditions on their farming operations as well as their expectations for the future. The Index of Current Conditions<\/em> dropped 29 points to a reading of 149 and the Index of Future Expectations <\/em>fell 17 points to a reading of 132. The Ag Economy Barometer<\/em> is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers\u2019 responses to a telephone survey. This month\u2019s survey was conducted from June 21-25, 2021.<\/p>\n

\"Ag

Ag Economy Barometer falls for second month; rising input costs causing concern for farmers <\/strong>(Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy\u00a0Barometer\/James Mintert)<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cFarmers expect their input costs to rise much more rapidly in the year ahead than they have over the last decade, contributing to their concerns about their farm finances and financial future,\u201d said James Mintert<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture.<\/p>\n

Since peaking in April, producers\u2019 view of their farms\u2019 financial performance has fallen sharply. The Farm Financial Performance Index<\/em>, which is based on a question that asks producers about expectations for their farm\u2019s financial performance this year compared to last year, declined 30 points this month, and 42 points since April, to a reading of 96.<\/p>\n

Weakening perceptions of farm financial performance spilled over into the Farm Capital Investment Index, <\/i>which declined 11 points to a reading of 54, the lowest investment index reading since May 2020. The decline in the investment index appears to be driven more by plans to hold back on constructing new farm buildings and grain bins than purchasing farm machinery. In June, 61% of producers said they reduced plans for new construction, while 9% said they increased plans. In comparison, 44% of producers indicated they plan to reduce their machinery purchases, 45% plan to hold purchases constant, and 10% plan to increase purchases, all compared to a year ago.<\/p>\n

Rapidly rising production costs related to both consumer and farm input price inflation are a concern for agricultural producers. Nearly 30% of producers said they expect farm input prices to rise by 8% or more in the upcoming year, which would be more than four times the average rise over the last 10 years of just 1.8%.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, 21% of producers expect prices paid for inputs to increase less than 2% which would be more in-line with recent history. Interestingly, producers expect farm input costs to rise more rapidly than prices for consumer items, which could pressure their margins. For example, just 17% respondents said they expect consumer prices to rise by 8% or more over the next year.<\/p>\n

Labor concerns may also be contributing to producers\u2019 anxiety as farms that normally hire non-family labor reported more difficulty in hiring labor this year than in 2020. Just over half (54% in 2020, 51% in 2021) of those surveyed reported hiring non-family members. In June 2021, nearly two-thirds (66%) of respondents said they either had \u201csome\u201d or \u201ca lot of difficulty\u201d in hiring adequate labor, that compared to just three out of ten respondents in 2020.<\/p>\n

Even as sentiment dipped in June, producers remained bullish on farmland values. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index<\/em>, based upon producers\u2019 12-month expectation for farmland values, declined nine points to a reading of 148; however, that matches the third-highest reading for the index since data collection began in 2015. The Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index<\/em>, based upon producers\u2019 five-year outlook, declined just 3 points to a reading of 155, which was also the third-highest reading on record for that index.<\/p>\n

Corn and soybean producers gave a somewhat mixed response when asked about their expectations for cash rental rates in 2022. In May, nearly two-thirds of producers said they expected rates to rise in 2022 compared to 2021; however, in June less than half (47%) of corn-soybean producers said they expect rental rates to rise in the coming year. Among those who expect rates to increase, many anticipate the rise will be significant. Nearly half expect cash rental rates to rise between five to less than 10% and nearly one-third expect rates to rise by 10% or more.<\/p>\n

Interest in leasing farmland for solar energy projects has risen sharply over the last couple of years. Nearly one-third (32%) of farms in the June survey said they are aware of solar leasing opportunities for their farmland. Of those aware of leasing opportunities, 29% of them said they had engaged in discussions with companies about leasing some of their farmland. Less than 3% (2.6%) of all survey respondents reported having signed a solar lease on some of their farmland. This is approximately double the percentage of producers who reported having signed a carbon sequestration contract on barometer surveys conducted this past winter and spring.<\/p>\n

Read the full Ag Economy Barometer report at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agbarometer<\/a>. The site also offers additional resources \u2013 such as past reports, charts and survey methodology \u2013 and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and webinars.<\/p>\n

Each month, the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture provides a short video analysis of the barometer results, available at\u00a0https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo<\/a>, and for even more information, check out the\u00a0Purdue Commercial AgCast<\/em>\u00a0podcast. It includes a detailed breakdown of each month\u2019s barometer, in addition to a discussion of recent agricultural news that impacts farmers. Available now at\u00a0https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agcast<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.<\/p>\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/h2>\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

About CME Group<\/h2>\n

As the world\u2019s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com<\/a>) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on\u00a0interest rates<\/a>,\u00a0equity indexes<\/a>,\u00a0foreign exchange<\/a>,\u00a0energy<\/a>,\u00a0agricultural products<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0metals<\/a>.\u00a0 The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world\u2019s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing. With a range of pre- and post-trade products and services underpinning the entire lifecycle of a trade, CME Group also offers optimization and reconciliation services through TriOptima, and trade processing services through Traiana.<\/p>\n

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.\u00a0NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.\u00a0COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec, EBS, TriOptima, and Traiana are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD, EBS Group LTD, TriOptima AB, and Traiana, Inc., respectively. Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and S&P are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor\u2019s Financial Services LLC and S&P\/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Writer:<\/strong> Kami Goodwin, 765-494-6999, kami@purdue.edu<\/a>
Source:<\/strong> James Mintert, 765-494-7004, jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

Media Contacts:
<\/strong>Aissa Good, Purdue University, 765-496-3884, aissa@purdue.edu<\/a>
Dana Schmidt, CME Group, 312-872-5443,\u00a0dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Related website:
<\/strong>Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture: http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag <\/a>
CME Group: http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Photo Caption:
<\/strong>Ag Economy Barometer falls for second month; rising input costs causing concern for farmers (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy\u00a0Barometer\/James Mintert). https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/uns\/images\/2021\/ag-barometer621LO.jpg<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014 The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer marks a second month of sharp declines, down 21 points to a reading of 137 in June. Producers were less optimistic about both current conditions on their farming operations as well as their expectations for the future. 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