{"id":5464,"date":"2021-11-02T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-02T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=5464"},"modified":"2021-12-06T11:10:42","modified_gmt":"2021-12-06T15:10:42","slug":"media-farmer-sentiment-weakens-amid-rising-concerns-of-a-cost-price-squeeze","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/media-farmer-sentiment-weakens-amid-rising-concerns-of-a-cost-price-squeeze\/","title":{"rendered":"Farmer sentiment weakens amid rising concerns of a cost-price squeeze"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014 The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a> recorded a drop in producer sentiment in October, down 3 points to a reading of 121. The modest drop was part of a three-month slide for the index primarily due to producers\u2019 weakened perceptions for both current and future conditions in the production agriculture sector. The Index of Current Conditions<\/em> was down 5 points to a reading of 140, while the Index of Future Expectations<\/em> fell 2 points to a reading of 114. The Ag Economy Barometer<\/em> is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers\u2019 responses to a telephone survey. This month\u2019s survey was conducted between October 18-22, 2021.<\/p>\n

\"Farmer

Farmer sentiment weakens amid rising concerns of a cost-price squeeze. <\/strong>(Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer\/James Mintert).<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cRecent weakness in farmer sentiment appears to be driven by a wide variety of issues, with concerns about input price rises topping the list,\u201d said James Mintert<\/a>, the barometer\u2019s principal investigator and director of Purdue University\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture. \u201cRapid run-ups in input prices, especially fertilizer for crop production, are giving rise to concerns among producers\u2019 about their operating margins weakening. Livestock producers are also concerned about a cost-price squeeze, especially in the pork and dairy sectors.\u201d<\/p>\n

Producer\u2019s view of their farms\u2019 financial situation was less optimistic in October compared to September. The Farm Financial Performance Index <\/em>declined 6 points to 104 in October. Over half (51%) of producers in the survey said they expect input prices to rise 8% or more in the upcoming year and one-third of producers said they expect those prices to rise by 12% or more. While the dramatic rise in fertilizer prices that\u2019s taken place in recent months is a key factor; rising input costs also extend to other inputs such as seed, pesticides, and machinery repairs and ownership costs leading farmers to become increasingly concerned about a cost-price squeeze on their operating margins, said Mintert.<\/p>\n

Rising input costs are starting to have a dampening effect on expectations for farmland cash rental rates. In October, the percentage of corn and soybean producers expecting higher farmland rental rates in 2022 compared to 2021, dipped to 43%, down 7 points from September, with more respondents expecting rates to remain unchanged in the coming year. Despite these concerns, producers remain bullish on farmland values. The Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index<\/i> set a new record high this month with a reading of 161, 2 points higher than a month earlier while the short-term index rose 1 point to 156.<\/p>\n

Tight machinery inventories continue to hold back producers\u2019 machinery investment plans, nearly four out of ten respondents said their purchase intentions were impacted by low farm machinery inventory levels. Even so, the Farm Capital Investment Index<\/i> improved modestly in October, up 3 points to a reading of 46. Even with that rise, however, the index was still 50% lower than it was at the beginning of the year. Weaker construction plans among producers this month also weighed on the investment index as the percentage of producers planning to increase building and grain bin construction on their farms fell to 10% in October compared to 13% in September.<\/p>\n

Over the past year, there\u2019s been little change in producers\u2019 awareness of carbon capture opportunities on their farms. Just 29% of respondents in the October survey said they were aware of opportunities to receive payments to capture carbon on their farms, on par with survey results from last winter and spring. Of those aware of the opportunities, just over 2% said they had discussed carbon capture payments with any companies, compared to 5% last winter and spring.<\/p>\n

Read the full Ag Economy Barometer<\/em> report at https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agbarometer<\/a>. The site also offers additional resources \u2013 such as past reports, charts and survey methodology \u2013 and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and webinars.<\/p>\n

Each month, the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture provides a short video analysis of the barometer results, available at\u00a0https:\/\/purdue.ag\/barometervideo<\/a>. For even more information, check out the\u00a0Purdue Commercial AgCast<\/em>\u00a0podcast. It includes a detailed breakdown of each month\u2019s barometer, in addition to a discussion of recent agricultural news that affects farmers. Available now at\u00a0https:\/\/purdue.ag\/agcast<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.<\/p>\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/h2>\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University\u2019s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

About CME Group<\/h2>\n

As the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com<\/a>)\u00a0enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data \u2013 empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on\u00a0interest rates<\/a>,\u00a0equity indexes<\/a>,\u00a0foreign exchange<\/a>,\u00a0energy<\/a>,\u00a0agricultural products<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0metals<\/a>.\u00a0 The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the\u00a0CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform.\u00a0 In addition, it operates one of the world’s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and, E-mini\u00a0are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0 CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc.\u00a0 NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.\u00a0 COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec and EBS are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD and EBS Group LTD, respectively.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and S&P are service and\/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and S&P\/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.\u00a0 All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Writer:<\/strong> Kami Goodwin, 765-494-6999, kami@purdue.edu<\/a>
Source:<\/strong> James Mintert, 765-494-7004, jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

Media Contacts:
<\/strong>Aissa Good, Purdue University, 765-496-3884, aissa@purdue.edu<\/a>
Dana Schmidt, CME Group, 312-872-5443,\u00a0dana.schmidt@cmegroup.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Related website:
<\/strong>Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture: http:\/\/purdue.edu\/commercialag <\/a>
CME Group: http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Photo Caption:
<\/strong>Farmer sentiment weakens amid rising concerns of a cost-price squeeze. (Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy\u00a0Barometer\/James Mintert). https:\/\/www.purdue.edu\/uns\/images\/2021\/ag-baromter1021OG.jpg<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2014 The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer recorded a drop in producer sentiment in October, down 3 points to a reading of 121. The modest drop was part of a three-month slide for the index primarily due to producers\u2019 weakened perceptions for both current and future conditions in the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-media"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFarmer sentiment weakens amid rising concerns of a cost-price squeeze<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Purdue University\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer recorded a drop in producer sentiment in October, down 3 points to a reading of 121. 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