{"id":933,"date":"2017-01-10T11:21:47","date_gmt":"2017-01-10T15:21:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/?p=933"},"modified":"2017-01-10T11:21:47","modified_gmt":"2017-01-10T15:21:47","slug":"agricultural-producers-economic-sentiment-soars-post-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ag.purdue.edu\/commercialag\/ageconomybarometer\/agricultural-producers-economic-sentiment-soars-post-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Agricultural producers\u2019 economic sentiment soars post-election"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Figure

Figure 1. Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. October 2015 to December 2016.<\/p><\/div>\n

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO \u2013 Producer sentiment about the agricultural economy soared on the heels of November\u2019s presidential election, according to the December Purdue\/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer<\/a> report released Tuesday (Jan. 10).<\/p>\n

The December survey results landed the barometer at an all-time high reading of 132\u2014a 16-point jump from the November survey. The barometer is based on a monthly survey of 400 U.S. agricultural producers.<\/p>\n

Producer optimism surrounding both current conditions and, especially, future expectations drove the increase. The Index of Current Conditions rose to 102 from November\u2019s 87, while the Index of Future Expectations increased from 130 in November to 146 in December.<\/p>\n

\u201cLooking back at the data from the last several months, it\u2019s apparent that we\u2019ve seen a big swing in producers\u2019 expectations about the future,\u201d said James Mintert<\/a>, barometer principal investigator and director of Purdue\u2019s Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a>. \u201cAlthough both the Current Conditions and Future Expectations Indices increased the last couple of months, it was the increase in the Index of Future Expectations, which jumped 51 points since October to reach an all-time high in December, that triggered the sharp rise in the barometer.\u201d<\/p>\n

Producers\u2019 improving sentiment doesn\u2019t seem to be driven by changes in corn and soybean prices, Mintert said. For example, March 2017 CBOT corn futures were slightly weaker during the November and December survey periods than during the October survey. On the soybean side, January 2017 CBOT futures were unchanged in November and only slightly stronger in December than those during the October survey collection period.<\/p>\n

Additionally, improved economic sentiment extends beyond just agriculture, said David Widmar<\/a>, senior research associate and leader of research activities for the barometer. In October and December, producers were asked about their expectations for the broad U.S. economy and the results were surprising.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe contrast in sentiment from the October survey\u2014three weeks prior to the U.S. elections\u2014and the December survey\u2014five weeks after the elections\u2014is remarkable,\u201d Widmar said.<\/p>\n

When asked in the October survey about their expectations for the U.S. economy over the next 12 months, only 13 percent of respondents said they expected it to expand, while 23 percent said they expected it to contract. In the December survey, half of the respondents expected economic expansion and only 13 percent expected contraction in the year ahead.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe improvement in optimism regarding the U.S. economy among agricultural producers appears to parallel that of U.S. consumers,\u201d Widmar said.<\/p>\n

The University of Michigan\u2019s Index of Consumer Sentiment confirmed that observation with a rise from 87 in October to a 12-year high of 98 in December.<\/p>\n

Read the full December Ag Economy Barometer report, including producer sentiment about the next five years and the health of their own operations, at http:\/\/purdue.edu\/agbarometer<\/a>. The site offers additional resources, such as past reports, charts and survey methodology, and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and quarterly webinars.<\/p>\n

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations also are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/b><\/p>\n

The Center for Commercial Agriculture<\/a> was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University’s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center\u2019s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today\u2019s business environment.<\/p>\n

About CME Group<\/b><\/p>\n

As the world\u2019s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com<\/a>) is where the world comes to manage risk. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes, including futures and options based on interest rates<\/a>, equity indexes<\/a>, foreign exchange<\/a>, energy<\/a>, agricultural products<\/a> and metals<\/a>. Around the world, CME Group brings buyers and sellers together through its CME Globex<\/a>\u00ae electronic trading platform and its exchanges based in Chicago, New York and London. CME Group also operates one of the world\u2019s leading central counterparty clearing providers through CME Clearing<\/a> and CME Clearing Europe<\/a>, which offer clearing and settlement services across asset classes for exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. CME Group\u2019s products and services ensure that businesses around the world can effectively manage risk and achieve growth.<\/p>\n

CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc. The Globe Logo, CME, Globex and Chicago Mercantile Exchange are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and the Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are registered trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Further information about CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) and its products can be found at www.cmegroup.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Writer:<\/b> Jennifer Stewart-Burton, 765-496-6032, jsstewar@purdue.edu<\/a>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

Sources:<\/b> Jim Mintert, 765-494-4310, jmintert@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

David Widmar, 765-494-0848, dwidmar@purdue.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

Chris Grams, 312-930-3435, chris.grams@cmegroup.com<\/a><\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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