2016-12 PAER: Agricultural Outlook for 2017

December 1, 2016

Welcome to our 2017 Agricultural Outlook. It’s a new year that will bring opportunities and challenges for agricultural industries. While no one can accurately predict the future, it is our mission to help you understand the major economic drivers of the agricultural economy in 2017. That begins with a new administration in D.C., which is expected to immediately pass an economic stimulus package to accelerate economic growth. That should have some positive impacts for U.S. agriculture but what about the strength of the U.S. dollar, and expectations for higher interest rates and higher inflation? 

Speaking of the new administration, there was more anti-trade rhetoric this election season than has been around for a long time. Trade is a foundation of the U.S. agricultural economy. Are we moving into a more protectionist era and shifting away from globalization? 

Farm incomes are depressed and the theme of the 2017 outlook is for a continuation of low farm incomes from both crop production as well as the animal industries. In these articles we give you a commodity-by-commodity evaluation. How long will this downturn last? What does it mean to the financial position of the Ag sector? It’s all right here for you to read. 

– Chris Hurt, Editor and Professor of Agricultural Economics 

Articles in this Publication:

Trump’s Election Changes the General Economy Outlook

Weak Ag Trade Outlook for 2017

Lower Grocery Store Food Prices: Good for Consumers and Bad for Farmers

Another Difficult Year for Beef Cattle Producers

Milk Prices Expected to Increase with Stable Feed Costs

Hog Production Losses Continue

High Grain Yields Contribute to Low Prices

Farmland Values Face Third Year of Decline

Cash Rents to Drop in 2017

Financial Outlook Continues to Weaken

2017 Indiana Crop Cost and Expected Returns

Latest Articles:

Indiana Farmland Prices Grow at Record Pace in 2022

August 10, 2022

Indiana farmland prices grew at a record pace between June 2021 and June 2022, according to the recent Indiana Farmland Value and Cash Rent Survey. Statewide, the average per acre price for top quality farmland increased by 30.9% to $12,808; average quality farmland increased by 30.1% to $10,598; poor quality farmland prices increased 34.0% to $8,631. Across all quality grades, farmland prices exceeded the previous highs set in 2021.

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Trends in Farmland Price to Rent Ratios in Indiana

August 10, 2022

A standard measure of financial performance most commonly used for stocks is the price to earnings ratio (P/E). A high P/E ratio sometimes indicates that investors think an investment has good growth opportunities, relatively safe earnings, a low capitalization rate, or a combination of these factors. However, a high P/E ratio may also indicate that an investment is less attractive because the price has already been bid up to reflect these positive attributes. This paper computes a ratio equivalent to P/E ratio for farmland, the farmland price to cash rent ratio (P/rent), and discusses trends in the P/rent ratio.

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Farmer optimism about short-term US farmland values weakens

August 10, 2022

Farmers purchase the majority of US farmland. The 2017 USDA Census of Agriculture reports more than 60% of farmland is owned by farmers. Farmers’ farmland value expectations are an important driver of farmland prices.

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