USDA’s changes to the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP) in 2021 have increased spending estimates by more than a quarter trillion dollars over ten years. The TFP and other factors used in calculating SNAP benefits will be prime targets for introducing cost reductions into the 2023 Farm Bill.

In this policy brief, we examine nutrition and commodity program spending since 2018 and conclude that the success of general economic policies typically determine farm bill spending. While the CBOs baseline represents important information it should not be treated as an automatic signal that farm bill programs must be cut.

The projected cost for farm and nutrition programs over the next ten years makes the farm bill a significant target for federal spending cuts. Successfully passing a farm bill in 2023 depends critically on insulating the farm bill from broader partisan debate over the size of government