December 18, 2019
2019-12 PAER: 2020 Agricultural Outlook Issue
by Jayson Lusk, Larry DeBoer, Russell Hillberry, Roman Keeney, Michael Langemeier, Craig Dobbins, James Mintert, Mindy Mallory, Todd Kuethe, Nicole Olynk Widmar, Kami Goodwin, and Linda Klotz.
Welcome to our annual outlook issue of the Purdue Ag Econ Report (PAER), where we look back at last year and ahead at economic conditions for agriculture in 2020.
The past year brought a number of challenges for Indiana agriculture, weather being at the top of the
list. Rain and flooding impacted the ability to get into fields, and led to difficult decisions about whether to delay planting or take prevented planting insurance. These delays then led to a late harvest. While weather had significant effects in different parts of the state; nationwide, there were only modest improvements in commodity prices .
Looking ahead, there continues to be uncertainty in trade policy and the macroeconomic environment. African Swine Fever in China is having, and will likely continue to have, major impacts in global markets. As a result of this and other factors, global food prices are on the rise, although domestic food price inflation is projected to remain low.
In the following PAER articles, Agricultural Economics Faculty at Purdue provide insight on these and other issues, including land values, rental rates, and agricultural policy.
– Jayson Lusk
Distinguished Professor and Head of the Department of Agricultural Economics
ARTICLES WITHIN PUBLICATION:
By Larry DoBoer | That’s a lot of good news. Yet 2019 had its concerns. Real output growth fell back to a disappointing 2 percent, its average during this expansion, after near 3 percent growth in 2018. Recession signals flashed warnings. Manufacturing employment declined. Financial markets were unsettled. The yield curve inverted.Read More
By Roman Keeney | Farm policy was once again dominated by ongoing trade disputes. Beginning in 2018, increased tariffs and reduced demand for export agriculture have exacerbated financial conditions in the sector and prompted a series of ad hoc transfers to farm operations based on expected damage from the trade war.Read More
By Nicole Olynk Widmar | Given the challenging market situation facing dairy producers, the ending stocks for dairy products have been closely monitored and heavily reported on in 2019. September ending stocks (as reported in November) were significantly (159 million pounds on a milk-fat basis) higher for 2019 than they were a year earlier (Sept 2018).Read More