2020-12 PAER: Agricultural Outlook for 2021

December 9, 2020

Welcome to our annual outlook issue of the Purdue Ag Econ Report (PAER), where take a look back over the previous year and also a look ahead at the economic conditions we can expect for the agricultural sector for 2021.

This past year was filled with a lot of uncertainty in the agricultural markets. A lingering trade war, weather issues, and the COVID-19 pandemic, impacted prices and brought change to all parts of the agricultural value chain. These issues continue to impact the markets now and likely into 2021.

In the following PAER articles, Agricultural Economics Faculty at Purdue University provide insight on the critical issues facing farmers and the agricultural value chain in 2021.

– Brady Brewer

Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics

Purdue Ag Econ Report Contributor & Editor

Articles in this Publication:

Farmland Values and Cash Rent

Author: Todd Kuethe, Associate Professor and Schrader Endowed Chair in Farmland Economics

Trade Policy Outlook: What should we expect from a Biden Administration?

Author: Russell Hillberry, Professor of Agricultural Economics

2021 Agricultural Credit Outlook

Authors: Brady Brewer, Assistant Professor and Todd H. Kuethe, Associate Professor and Schrader Endowed Chair in Farmland Economics

An uncertain horizon for farm policy

Authors: Roman Keeney, Associate Professor

The Dairy Marketplace: Reflections on 2020 and factors to watch in 2021

Author: Nicole Olynk-Widmar, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Retail Food Price Outlook

Author: Jayson L. Lusk, Department Head and Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics

2021 Purdue Crop Cost and Return Guide

Authors: Michael Langemeier, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Craig Dobbins, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Providing Some Perspective on the Corn and Soybean Markets

Author: James Mintert, Professor and Director of the Center for Commercial Agriculture

The General Economic Outlook

Author: Larry DeBoer, Professor of Agricultural Economics

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Latest Articles:

The August 2026 CPI and PPI Reports: The Late-July Energy Spike Arrives, and the Food Pipeline Still Holds

September 16, 2026

Energy costs surged across both reports this month — diesel fuel up 24.1 percent, gasoline up 3.9 percent — in a single month. At the same time, food inflation sat almost exactly where it sat in July, and the most upstream producer-price stage swung through a wider range than the stage nearest the consumer has moved in three months combined. A real, measurable energy shock landing squarely in the data, alongside a food pipeline that barely moved, is the sharpest evidence yet for the thesis this series has been building since spring.

The August 2026 Beef Import Waiver: A Narrow Tool Aimed at a Narrow Problem

August 25, 2026

This is a targeted policy aimed at a narrow slice of the beef market — imported product for ground beef, much of which is lean processing beef — rather than a broad intervention in the fed-cattle market. It was announced in response to historically tight cattle supplies and unusually high beef prices. Within that narrow lane, the most plausible effect is some additional availability of lower-cost processing beef and some downward pressure on ground-beef prices.

The July 2026 CPI and PPI Reports: The Energy Shock Bypasses the Food Pipeline

August 20, 2026

Energy prices are 14.7 percent above year-ago levels, and yet the raw agricultural commodities that sit at the head of the food pipeline are cheaper than they were last July. That combination is the whole story of this month’s release — but it is not evidence that the energy shock missed agriculture.

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2020-12 PAER: Agricultural Outlook for 2021

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