Purdue Agricultural Economics Report

The Purdue Agricultural Economics Report (PAER) exists to serve and further the core mission of the department to engage with real world problems that are of value to stakeholders. The scholarship communicated in this publication will represent the department’s excellence in creative endeavor for new knowledge and its dissemination in the economics of agriculture and natural resources.

Recent Publication:

Outlook 2024

January 16, 2024

Welcome to the PAER Outlook 2024 issue! As is the tradition we ask department specialists to spend some time thinking about key issues in their field and consider how these have impacted outcomes over the past year and may continue to go forward. We continue to call the issue “Outlook” in recognition of the past tradition in the department delivering programming at the start of the year to educate stakeholders that may benefit from knowledge in key mission areas of Purdue Ag Econ.

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Articles:

Publication Date: January 2024
Article ID: PAER-2024-01

Larry DeBoer, Professor Emeritus of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Professor DeBoer explains why so many economists predicted recession in 2023 and why it didn’t happen. His analysis indicates slowed growth in 2024 from reduced spending but that recession could be avoided.
Publication Date: January 2024
Article ID: PAER-2024-02

Russell Hillberry, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Professor Hillberry reviews trade and trade policy developments from 2023 including responses to the Russia-Ukraine war. Looking ahead he identifies the potential for trade disputes and how the election may shape US merchandise and agriculture trade.
Publication Date: January 2024
Article ID: PAER-2024-03

Roman Keeney, Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Congress failed to pass new farm legislation in 2023, instead continuing the 2018 Farm Bill for one more year. In a 2024 election year, the time to produce a new five-year bill for agriculture may be short.
Publication Date: January 2024
Article ID: PAER-2024-04

Maksym Chepeliev, Research Economist

Summary: Food-security implications of the war in Ukraine are exacerbated by adverse weather events, energy and fertilizer market disruptions, and food export restrictions, disproportionally impacting low-income households. Proactive trade policies, such as trade facilitation measures and the reduction of import tariffs on agricultural and food commodities, could largely mitigate the impacts of the war on global agriculture.
Publication Date: January 2024
Article ID: PAER-2024-05

Zuzana Bednarik, Research and Extension Specialist, North Central Regional Center for Rural Development; and Maria I. Marshall, Jim and Lois Ackerman Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: A generation gap revealed differences in diversity and trust in institutions.
Publication Date: January 2024
Article ID: PAER-2024-06

Farzad Taheripour, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Professor Taheripour reviews the growth of energy and biofuels policy as a key component of agricultural policy research and the contributions of Purdue Ag Econ.
Publication Date: January 2024
Article ID: PAER-2024-07

Caitlinn Hubbell, Market Research Analyst; and Joe Balagtas, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Hubbell and Balagtas examine data from 2023 and explain the factors that drove changes to food prices. Looking to 2024 they highlight macro factors that will determine whether food price inflation continues to slow.
Publication Date: January 2024
Article ID: PAER-2024-08

Nicole Olynk Widmar, Interim Department Head and Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Professor Widmar reviews key changes to dairy market fundamentals and how consumer and producer prices have responded. Looking ahead, tight supplies are expected to persist but limited demand growth could limit price increases.
Publication Date: January 2024
Article ID: PAER-2024-09

Todd Kuethe, Professor and Schrader Endowed Chair in Farmland Economics

Summary: The growth rate of Indiana farmland prices is expected to moderate in 2024. Cash rental rates are expected to hold steady or increase in 2023.
Publication Date: January 2024
Article ID: PAER-2024-10

Brady Brewer, Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics; and Todd Kuethe, Professor and Schrader Endowed Chair in Farmland Economics

Summary: Increasing interest rates, higher demand for loans, lower repayment rates, and fund availability suggest agricultural credit markets trending downward for 2023.
Publication Date: January 2024
Article ID: PAER-2024-11

Michael Langemeier, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Production costs are expected to decline from 2023 record levels. However, production costs are still considerably higher than what they were prior to the advent of COVID-19.
Publication Date: August 2023
Article ID: PAER-2023-26

Todd H. Kuethe, Professor and Schrader Chair in Farmland Economics

Summary: State-wide farmland prices in Indiana once again hit a new record high in 2023. The growth, however, was relatively modest compared to the record high appreciation observed in 2022.
Publication Date: August 2023
Article ID: PAER-2023-27

Michael Langemeier, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: The P/rent ratio (price per acre divided by cash rent per acre) is substantially higher than historical values. In order to maintain the current high farmland values, cash rents would have to remain relatively high, and interest rates would also have to remain relatively low.
Publication Date: August 2023
Article ID: PAER-2023-28

Todd H. Kuethe, Schrader Endowed Chair in Farmland Economics

Summary: When setting cash rental rates, farmers and landowners should consider information from both the Purdue survey and USDA-NASS. Inside this article, we compare the findings from both surveys.
Publication Date: May 2023
Article ID: PAER-2023-25

Yanyu Ma, H. Holly Wang, professor of agricultural economics, Yizhou Hua, and Shihuan Kuang

Summary: This report compares the soybean demand in the production of traditional meat, plant-based meat and cell-cultured meat. Soybean farmers are expected to benefit from the meat demand growth and the new meat substitute production.
Publication Date: May 2023
Article ID: PAER-2023-18

Nicole Olynk-Widmar, Professor, Associate Head, and Graduate Program Chair of Agricultural Economics

Summary: An update on the State of the Agricultural Economics Graduate Program at Purdue University
Publication Date: May 2023
Article ID: PAER-2023-19

Laxmi D. Adhikari, Yizhou Hua, and Yifei Wang, agricultural economics graduate students, and H. Holly Wang, agricultural economics professor

Summary: According to consumer preferences, healthier snack options with favorable sensory attributes are increasingly sought after, with physically active individuals placing greater emphasis on product quality, while those leading sedentary lifestyles prioritize calorie content and taste.
Publication Date: May 2023
Article ID: PAER-2023-20

Zachary T. Neuhofer, agricultural economics doctoral student

Summary: We analyze the effects of a sustainability facts label on organic choice. We find that the presence of the hypothetical label increased the likelihood of organic purchase, and led to consumers increasing their perception of organic relative to conventional.
Publication Date: May 2023
Article ID: PAER-2023-21

Ethan Buck, Morgan Hinz, Yuxi “Jimmy” Jiang, Xiuyun “Lisa” Wen, all agricultural economics undergraduate students, and Todd H. Kuethe, professor and Schrader Endowed Chair in Farmland Economics

Summary: A team of undergraduate researchers find that USDA retail food price forecasts provide accurate predictions at short horizons.
Publication Date: May 2023
Article ID: PAER-2023-22

Hari P. Regmi, Agricultural Economics Doctoral Student

Summary: Historically, Farm Bill programs have provided a majority of farm income support to producers. In recent years, especially 2020 and 2021, the pandemic assistance payments comprised the largest share of government assistance to Indiana producers. The average government payments per farm ($35, 497) was a record high in 2020 (35.2% of net cash income).

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The Purdue Agricultural Economics Report is a quarterly publication written by faculty and staff from the Department Agricultural Economics at Purdue University.

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