Purdue Agricultural Economics Report

The Purdue Agricultural Economics Report (PAER) exists to serve and further the core mission of the department to engage with real world problems that are of value to stakeholders. The scholarship communicated in this publication will represent the department’s excellence in creative endeavor for new knowledge and its dissemination in the economics of agriculture and natural resources.

Recent Publication:

2022-04 Purdue Ag Econ Report: Spring Graduate Student Issue

April 26, 2022

Graduate student issue of the Purdue Ag Econ report showcases the breadth of research being conducted by MS and PhD students in the department.

VIEW THE FULL REPORT >>

Articles:

State of the Graduate Program, April 2022
Publication Date: April 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-11

Dr. Nicole Olynk Widmar, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Dr. Nicole Widmar provides an update on the State of the Purdue Ag Econ Graduate Program.
Valuation of land grant university education under COVID-19: students’ willingness-to-pay for alternative study options
Publication Date: April 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-12

Yizhou Hua, Ph.D. Candidate; Holly Wang, Professor of Agricultural Economics; and Christine Wilson, Professor & Associate Dean at College of Agriculture

Summary: Purdue’s undergraduate students are willing to pay $1545 (31%) and $384 (7.6%) less for online and hybrid options respectively compared with the in-person study option, given the basic in-person tuition rate $5000 per semester at Purdue.
A good time to understand the agricultural supply chain
Publication Date: April 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-13

Dr. Francisco Scott, Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Summary: The supply chain in agriculture is dynamic. Dr. Scott provides a few examples of how to understand demand, supply, and competition in some parts of the supply chain.
Evaluating USDA’s Farm Debt Forecast
Publication Date: April 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-14

Pedro Antonio Diaz Cachay, Masters Student; Dr. Todd Kuethe, Associate Professor and Schrader Endowed Chair in Farmland Economics

Summary: We find that ERS forecasts for farm debt are unbiased, as the forecasts do not systematically differ from realized values. However, ERS forecasts are inefficient, as they over-react to new information.
Informativeness of USDA’s agricultural export projections
Publication Date: April 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-15

Hari P. Regmi, Ph.D. Student; and Todd H. Kuethe, Associate Professor and Schrader Endowed Chair in Farmland Economics

Summary: USDA baseline export projections exhibits downward bias. Projections of total exports and high value commodities are informative up to year four while bulk commodities export projections are informative up to year three.
Do Government Farm Support Programs affect the Adoption of Farm Technology and Sustainable Production Practices?
Publication Date: April 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-16

Haden Comstock, M.S. Student; Nathan DeLay, Assistant Professor

Summary: This paper finds that there may be a positive correlation between participation in the Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) and time to adoption of certain Precision Agriculture Technologies (PATs).
Food Production and Population Growth: A Cautionary Tale
Publication Date: April 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-17

Mario Ortez, Doctoral Candidate

Summary: In the late 1700’s Thomas Malthus famously worried that food production would not keep up with population growth. Here in his own words: “The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man” (Malthus, 2010). Thereafter, Fr. Gregor Mendel, O.S.A. laid the foundation of modern genetics, Louis…
Chicken labels: How do consumer beliefs impact preference for labels?
Publication Date: April 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-18

Zach Neuhofer, Doctoral Candidate

Summary: We decomposed consumer preferences for food labels, such as organic, into the impacts resulting from beliefs about health, taste, food safety, and animal welfare. We find consumers have a positive association with labels on chicken, and that health and taste perception are primary drivers of demand.
Digital Agriculture and Rural Broadband
Publication Date: April 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-19

Douglas Abney, M.S. Student; Brady Brewer, assistant professor of agricultural economics; and Nathan DeLay assistant professor of agricultural economics

Summary: We studied the presence of digital agriculture jobs in the agricultural job market and reflected on the economic impact of rural broadband connectivity on digital agriculture jobs.
Anything but Overprediction: USDA Milk Price Forecasts
Publication Date: April 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-20

Chad Fiechter, Doctoral Student

Summary: USDA price forecasts for steers, barrows and gilts, broilers and turkeys are unbiased and efficient. However, the USDA milk price forecasters prefer to under-predict price movements.
Key Takeaways from “Commitment Behaviour in the World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement” by Hillberry and Zurita (2022)
Publication Date: April 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-21

Carlos Zurita, Doctoral Candidate

Summary: The Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) is a novel á-la-carte agreement negotiated among members of the World Trade Organization. The TFA allows country member governments to choose only those provisions that they feel capable to be held responsible for. Hillberry and Zurita (2022) study the TFA’s cross-country commitment behavior and provide three main takeaways. Some TFA measures are perceived to be more difficult to implement than others. Countries with higher income levels are prepared to implement more measures. The content of commitments made is mostly explained by the number of commitments made. Although aid for trade facilitation helps, it may take decades for developing countries to fully implement the TFA.
Understanding the Growing Climate Solutions Act
Publication Date: February 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-10

Megan N. Hughes, Ph.D. Student Agricultural Economics; Olivia Wyrick, Student Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences; Carson J. Reeling, Associate Professor; and Meilin Ma, Assistant Professor

Summary: A lack of regulation has led to variance in the quality of carbon offsets generated in carbon markets. Improved verification standards may help to improve the long-term sustainability of these programs.
General Economic Outlook – COVID calls the shots again
Publication Date: January 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-1

Larry DeBoer, Agricultural Economics Professor Emeritus

Summary: Uncertainty over the course of the pandemic and the response by workers and businesses to inflationary pressures are expected to be the determining factors in what is likely to be slower GDP growth in 2022.
The Impact of COVID-19 on Households: Lessons for 2022?
Publication Date: January 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-2

Author: Maria I. Marshall, Professor, Jim and Lois Ackerman Endowed Chair in Agricultural Economics

Summary: COVID-19 exposed how lack of childcare impacts households and employment.
Trade and trade policy outlook, 2022
Publication Date: January 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-3

Author: Russell Hillberry, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: While trade policy does not appear to be a major priority of the Biden Administration, it does affect many key objectives. One example is the supply chain problem, which may not be fully resolved in 2022.
How might the past four years of economic shocks inform the next Farm Bill agenda?
Publication Date: January 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-4

Author: Roman Keeney, Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Payments to farmers have spiked the past four years from trade war and COVID assistance. Should the next Farm Bill expand its criteria for emergency assistance to wider economy shocks?
The Year of Food Price Inflation
Publication Date: January 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-5

Author: Jayson L. Lusk, Distinguished Professor and Department Head of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Almost two years into the pandemic, concerns about empty grocery shelves have been replaced by concerns about higher food prices. Increases in wages in the food sector, rising agricultural commodity prices, transportation bottlenecks, and strong consumer demand have led to the highest annual grocery price increases in a decade and the highest annual restaurant price increases since the early 1980s.
Dairy and Milk Markets in 2021-2022
Publication Date: January 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-6

Author: Nicole Olynk Widmar, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Total US cow numbers and milk production have declined in the second half of 2021 placing upward pressure on prices heading into 2022. Changes in consumption have been highly product specific and the discussions surrounding fluid milk consumption, especially among children, continue. Potential changes in preferences surrounding milk fat content in products are worthy of watching in the coming years.
2022 Purdue Crop Cost and Return Guide
Publication Date: January 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-7

Michael Langemeier, Professor, Associate Director Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture

Summary: Despite substantially higher production costs, it is not out of the realm of possibility to see positive margins in 2022, particularly for rotation corn and soybeans on high productivity ground.
Farmland Values and Cash Rent
Publication Date: January 2022
Article ID: PAER-2022-8

Author: Todd Kuethe, Associate Professor, Schrader Endowed Chair in Farmland Economics

Summary: Both land values and cash rents are likely to increase in 2022.

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The Purdue Agricultural Economics Report is a quarterly publication written by faculty and staff from the Department Agricultural Economics at Purdue University.

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