Purdue Agricultural Economics Report (PAER)

The Purdue Agricultural Economics Report (PAER) exists to serve and further the core mission of the department to engage with real world problems that are of value to stakeholders. The scholarship communicated in this publication will represent the department’s excellence in creative endeavor for new knowledge and its dissemination in the economics of agriculture and natural resources.

Recent Publication:

2026-05 PAER: Graduate Student Research Issue

May 13, 2026

Welcome to the Spring 2026 Purdue Agricultural Economics Report (PAER). This issue marks the fifth edition of our Graduate Student Research feature, showcasing the research and accomplishments of master’s and PhD students in the Department of Agricultural Economics. In the first article of this issue, Dr. Carson Reeling, professor of agricultural economics and graduate program chair, presents an overview of the agricultural economics graduate program, including enrollment, job placements, program accomplishments, grants and awards. The remainder of this issue highlights student research in two broad sections. The first section focuses on consumers’ willingness to pay and the rural economy. Master’s student Marley Heritier uses a best-worst scaling consumer survey to examine consumers’ preferences for chocolate attributes in Trinidad and Tobago. Next, PhD student Ivana Carrillo-Siller examines family and non-family small businesses in the Midwest and finds that females are more likely to be self-employed in non-family businesses, highlighting the important role of self-employment outside family firms. Laxmi Adhikari (editor for this issue) examines the state of employees’ mental health in rural America using an employee survey and finds that nervousness, restlessness and feeling that everything is an effort are the most common challenges reported by rural employees. The second section presents research related to land use, the environment and policy. PhD student Binayak Kunwar studies the effect of state-led farmland acquisition for economic development, using Indiana’s LEAP District as a case study, and finds that public land acquisition increased local farmland prices. PhD student Lauren Benavidez-Brouk discusses methods for quantifying greenhouse gas emissions from land conversion and changes in agricultural practices. Master’s student Anabeth Jennings discusses that phosphorus inefficiency largely occurs at the consumption stage, mainly due to food waste, and emphasizes the need for policies that reduce food waste to support phosphorus sustainability. Finally, we conclude this issue by including the abstracts from the departmental Outstanding Dissertation and Thesis Awards, recognizing Yuansen Li (PhD ’25) and Sampada Wagle (MS ’25), respectively. On behalf of the editorial team, I hope you enjoy this collection of work by the graduate students in Purdue’s Department of Agricultural Economics. Thank you for taking the time to read the PAER. Laxmi Adhikari PhD Student 2026 Graduate Editor for PAER 2026

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The April 2026 CPI and PPI Reports: The Food Price Pipeline Is Opening Purchasing Power Under Pressure for Second Consecutive Month

Publication Date: May 2026

Article ID: PAERPB-2026-09

Ken Foster, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Director, Purdue Farm Policy Study Group; Bernhard Dalheimer, Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics and Trade

Summary: The conflict’s direct impact on farm profitability in the 2026 crop year is likely to be modest and uneven. A more significant farm-level reckoning is coming in 2027 if Strait of Hormuz restrictions persist into the fall 2026 input purchasing and spring 2027 planting cycles.

Food Prices - 2026

Publication Date: May 2026

Article ID: PAERPB-2026-08

Caitlinn Hubbell, Market Research Analyst; Joe Balagtas, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Hubbell and Balagtas examine data from 2025 and explain the factors that drove changes to food prices. Looking forward, they discuss projections for food prices in 2026 and the policies and events that will affect them.

Do Federal Medicaid Outlays Cause Redistribution Across U.S. Counties? Evidence from the ACA

Publication Date: May 2026

Article ID: PAERPB-2026-07

Laura Montenovo, Assistant Professor

Summary: Medicaid expansion represents a major injection of federal dollars into local economies. This new brief from Montenovo highlights research on the role of ACA expansion in directing federal funds toward high-need, low-income U.S. counties.

State of the Agricultural Economics Graduate Programs in 2026

Publication Date: May 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-15

Carson Reeling, Graduate Program Chair, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: If you had asked me at the beginning of 2025 what this report would look like in the first few months of 2026, my thoughts might not have been safe to print. Now that it is the first few months of 2026, however, I am happy to report that, despite my dire predictions, things are just fine in the Department of Agricultural Economics graduate programs.

Trinidad and Tobago Chocolate Consumer Market Study

Publication Date: May 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-16

Marley Heritier, Master’s Student; Kenneth Foster, Professor of Agricultural Economics; Nicole Olynk Widmar, Department Head and Professor of Agricultural Economics; Amanda Dickson

Summary: Identifying the chocolate attribute preferences of local consumers can stimulate demand and further grow the sector. Understanding these preferences is crucial for local producers to align their products with consumer expectations, ensuring the industry’s sustainability and potential expansion into other markets.

A Picture of Self-Employed Women in the Midwest

Publication Date: May 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-17

Ivanna Carrillo-Siller, PhD Student and Graduate Research Assistant

Summary: This article examines gender differences in self-employment composition and outcomes across the Midwest. It finds that while non-family businesses dominate overall, women are more concentrated in lower-profit firms, with family businesses playing a central role in higher earnings and intra-household caregiving distribution.

State of Employees’ Mental Health in Rural America

Publication Date: May 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-18

Laxmi D. Adhikari, PhD Student and Graduate Research Assistant; Bhagyashree Katare, Berdine Martin Food Economics Associate Professor; and Maria I. Marshall, James and Lois Ackerman Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Mental health issues are a bigger challenge in rural areas and often worsened by limited access to care, stigma and workplace constraints. This study highlights the prevalence of common mental health issues among rural employees and underscores the need for targeted strategies that meet the unique needs of rural small business employees.

State-Led Land Acquisition and Farmland Prices: Evidence from Indiana

Publication Date: May 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-19

Binayak Kunwar, PhD Student and Graduate Research Assistant; Chad Fiechter, Assistant Professor, Agricultural Finance; Guy Tchuente, Assistant Professor, Quantitative Methods in Spatial Analysis; and Aaron Shew, Chief Technology Officer at Acres

Summary: State-led farmland purchases can influence land prices beyond the parcels directly acquired. Using Indiana’s LEAP District as a case study, this report shows that public land acquisition significantly increased local farmland prices and affected neighboring counties, with important implications for farmers and policymakers.

Approaches and Data to Quantify Global Soil Organic Carbon for Land-Use Agricultural Policy

Publication Date: May 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-20

Lauren Benavidez-Brouk, PhD Student; Farzad Taheripour, Research Professor of Agricultural Economics; Uris Baldos, Research Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics; Qianlai Zhuang, Professor of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences and Agronomy; Shuo Chen, PhD Student

Summary: How much do soil maps matter for climate policy? Quite a lot. We find that differences across major global SOC databases can translate into significant changes in land-use emission estimates, making SOC baseline choice a critical part of agricultural policy analysis.

Phosphorus Embodied in the Global Food Supply Chain: The Role of Food Loss and Waste

Publication Date: May 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-21

Anabeth Jennings, MS Student; Maksym Chepeliev, Research Associate Professor

Summary: The Role of Phosphorus in Global Food Systems and Its Link to Food Loss and Waste Agriculture has become reliant on phosphorus (P), a non-renewable resource essential for plant growth (Cordell et al., 2009; Scholz & Wellmer, 2015). Furthermore, there

Extensions of the Synthetic Control Method to Multiple Dimensions

Publication Date: May 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-22

Yuansen Li, PhD Student

Summary: The synthetic control method (SCM) is a widely used causal inference approach for panel data settings in which only a single unit is exposed to treatment.

Immigration Enforcement, Labor Outcomes and Consumer Welfare: Evidence from U.S. Meat and Poultry Processing Plants

Publication Date: May 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-23

Sampada Wagle, MS Student

Summary: Immigrant labor constitutes a substantial portion of the US meat and poultry processing workforce. However, the downstream effects of deportations targeting these immigrants on their food safety practices remain largely unexamined. We provide novel empirical evidence on the relationship between deportations, labor dynamics in the industry, and safety practices in the meat and poultry processing sector.

Commodity Prices at the Crossroads: Trade Policy, the Iran Conflict, and the 2026 U.S. Grain Markets

Publication Date: May 2026

Article ID: PAERPB-2026-06

Ken Foster, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Director, Purdue Farm Policy Study Group; Bernhard Dalheimer, Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics and Trade; Roman Keeney, Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics and Extension Coordinator

Summary: Three forces interact to shape the 2026 commodity price outlook: (1) the trade policy headwind created by tariffs and retaliatory measures that suppress the transmission of supply tightening into higher U.S. export prices; (2) a biofuel demand tailwind that works through domestic markets and is strengthened by elevated oil prices and renewable fuels policy; and (3) the emerging El Niño climate pattern that elevates production uncertainty in both the U.S. and global crops.

The March 2026 Producer Price Index: Reading the Food Price Pipeline

Publication Date: April 2026

Article ID: PAEPB-2026-05

Ken Foster, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Director, Purdue Farm Policy Study Group; Bernhard Dalheimer, Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics and Trade

Summary: The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects Producer Price Index (PPI) prices on the Tuesday of the week containing the 13th of each month. The March survey date was March 10. The Iran conflict began on February 28, making March 10 exactly ten days post-onset. The February survey date was February 10 — eighteen days before the conflict began – but well within the window of pre-conflict rhetoric and US troop buildup in the region.

The March 2026 CPI Report: What It Tells Us About the Iran Conflict’s Inflation Footprint — And What Is Still Coming

Publication Date: April 2026

Article ID: PAEPB-2026-04

Ken Foster, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Director, Purdue Farm Policy Study Group

Summary: The March 2026 CPI report confirms what the structural analysis predicted: the Iran Conflict’s initial consumer price impact is concentrated in motor fuels, which respond to crude oil prices with almost no lag. The 0.9 percent monthly CPI increase is large by recent standards — the largest monthly increase since mid-2022, but it is not yet the broad-based food and goods inflation that a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption will eventually produce.

The Iran Conflict and Global Food Security: Why the Burden Falls Hardest on the World's Most Vulnerable

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAEPB-2026-03

Ken Foster, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Director, Purdue Farm Policy Study Group; Bernhard Dalheimer, Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics and Trade

Summary: When an energy shock ripples out from the Persian Gulf, the headlines focus on oil prices, gasoline costs, implications for value chains and the profit margins of U.S. producers.

The Iran Conflict and Consumer Food Prices: A Broad but Lagged and Sticky Shock

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAEPB-2026-02

Ken Foster, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Director, Purdue Farm Policy Study Group; Bernhard Dalheimer, Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics and Trade

Summary: The initial public reaction to an oil price shock reaching $110 per barrel is often to project near-immediate, dramatic increases in grocery prices. This instinct overstates the direct farm-to-retail transmission channel in a straightforward and measurable way. The USDA Economic Research Service tracks how each dollar of consumer food spending is distributed across the supply chain in its Food Dollar Series. The picture it reveals is sobering for those who expect large and rapid retail food price responses driven purely by higher farm input costs.

The Iran Conflict, Energy Prices, and U.S. Farm Profitability: A Balanced Assessment

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAEPB-2026-01

Ken Foster, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Director, Purdue Farm Policy Study Group; Bernhard Dalheimer, Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics and Trade

Summary: The conflict that began on February 28, 2026, with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow chokepoint through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s traded oil and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flow. Within days, Brent crude oil surged from roughly $70 per barrel to over $110, the highest level since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Gasoline prices at the pump rose roughly 17 percent in the first two weeks of the conflict, and diesel — the lifeblood of farming operations — followed closely.

From Assets to Well-being: A Conceptual Framework for Community Vitality

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-01

Authors: Michael Wilcox, Community and Regional Economics Specialist, Assistant Director Community Development; Jeffrey Walker, Community Vitality Specialist; Zuzana Bednarik, Research and Extension Specialist; DeAndre Malone, Graduate Research Assistant

Summary: This article presents a conceptual framework integrating the Community Capitals Framework (CCF) and the Policy, Systems, and Environment (PSE) approach to understand community vitality and well-being. Community vitality links community assets to well-being outcomes through a dynamic process in which communities pursue shared aspirations of well-being. The framework positions Cooperative Extension and community partners to align asset-based, community-focused programming with well-being-aligned initiatives.

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy in 2026

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-02

Author: Larry DeBoer, Professor Emeritus and Purdue Extension Specialist

Summary: The U.S. economy in 2026 is expected to grow slowly, primarily due to slower consumer spending growth. Unemployment should remain around 4.6%, as the growth in job openings matches the growth in job searchers. Inflation is likely to hold steady near 2.5%, due to lower oil prices and slower growth in housing costs. Tariffs will add to goods inflation. The Federal Reserve may make further modest reductions in the federal funds rate, leading to somewhat lower interest rates. Barring unexpected shocks, the outlook is for another year of slow expansion rather than recession.

Recent Publication:

2026-05 PAER: Graduate Student Research Issue

Articles:

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