About the Ag Economy Barometer

James Mintert, David Widmar, Michael Langemeier   The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer slipped to 124 in March, marking the second month in a row that producer sentiment dropped below the prior month’s level. Recent weakness in the Barometer – which is based on a monthly survey of 400 agricultural producers from across the U.S. – followed a sharp improvement in producer sentiment from November through January. Although producer sentiment fell in both February and March, producers remain more optimistic about the agricultural economy than during all but the last two months of 2016 (Figure 1).     30…

James Mintert, David Widmar, Michael Langemeier Following three months of strong gains, the Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer shifted course during February, declining to a reading of 134 compared to 153 a month earlier. Although the Barometer—a measure of producer sentiment based on a monthly survey of 400 U.S. agricultural producers—fell 19 points below its record high set in January, it was still the second highest reading since data collection began in fall 2015 (Figure 1).     The two component indices of the Ag Economy Barometer, the Index of Current Conditions and the Index of Future Expectations, also backed…

The dramatic improvement in ag producers’ sentiment that started following the November election continued into the new year. The Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer—based on a monthly survey of 400 agricultural producers from across the U.S.—reached 153 in January 2017, 21 points higher than December’s survey and 61 points higher than in October (Figure 1). Ag producers’ sentiment in January was not only the most positive recorded in the Ag Economy Barometer’s history, but it was also the biggest month-to-month sentiment change since data collection began in October 2015.     The largest contributor to the sharp uptick in optimism…