CBO’s February outlook identified federal deficit projections well above fifty year norms. Mounting concerns about economic growth and the size of the deficit indicate that new farm legislation in 2023 will likely need to be reduced from its estimated $140 bn/year cost to gain broad legislative support.

USDA’s changes to the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP) in 2021 have increased spending estimates by more than a quarter trillion dollars over ten years. The TFP and other factors used in calculating SNAP benefits will be prime targets for introducing cost reductions into the 2023 Farm Bill.

In this policy brief, we examine nutrition and commodity program spending since 2018 and conclude that the success of general economic policies typically determine farm bill spending. While the CBOs baseline represents important information it should not be treated as an automatic signal that farm bill programs must be cut.