2019-12 PAER: Agricultural Outlook for 2020

December 18, 2019

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Welcome to our annual outlook issue of the Purdue Ag Econ Report (PAER), where we look back at last year and ahead at economic conditions for agriculture in 2020.

The past year brought a number of challenges for Indiana agriculture, weather being at the top of the list. Rain and flooding impacted the ability to get into fields, and led to difficult decisions about whether to delay planting or take prevented planting insurance. These delays then led to a late harvest. While weather had significant effects in different parts of the state; nationwide, there were only modest improvements in commodity prices .

Looking ahead, there continues to be uncertainty in trade policy and the macroeconomic environment. African Swine Fever in China is having, and will likely continue to have, major impacts in global markets. As a result of this and other factors, global food prices are on the rise, although domestic food price inflation is projected to remain low.

In the following PAER articles, Agricultural Economics Faculty at Purdue provide insight on these and other issues, including land values, rental rates, and agricultural policy.

– Jayson Lusk, Distinguished Professor and Head of the Department of Agricultural Economics

Articles in this Publication:

Our Long, Slow, Steady Expansion Should Continue

Author: Larry DeBoer, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Trade and trade policy outlook for 2020

Author: Russell Hillberry, Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics

2020 Outlook: Farm Policy

Author: Roman Keeney, Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics

Food Price Inflation is on the Rise Globally but Steady at Home

Author: Jayson L. Lusk, Department Head & Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics

Farmland Market Outlook for 2020

Authors: Todd H. Kuethe, Associate Professor, Schrader Endowed Chair in Farmland Economics and Craig Dobbins, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Increase in Indiana cash rent seems unlikely in 2020

Authors: Craig Dobbins, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Todd H. Kuethe, Associate Professor, Schrader Endowed Chair in Farmland Economics

More milk, consolidation continues, but still an improved 2020 price outlook

Author: Nicole Olynk Widmar, Professor of Agricultural Economics

2020 Purdue Crop Cost & Return Guide

Authors: Michael Langemeier, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Craig Dobbins, Professor of Agricultural Economics

2020 Corn Price Outlook

Authors: James Mintert, Professor of Agricultural Economics & Director of the Center for Commercial Agriculture and Mindy Mallory, Associate Professor, Clearing Corporation Charitable Foundation Endowed Chair of Food & Agricultural Marketing

2020 Soybean Price Outlook

Authors: James Mintert, Professor of Agricultural Economics & Director of the Center for Commercial Agriculture and Mindy Mallory, Associate Professor, Clearing Corporation Charitable Foundation Endowed Chair of Food & Agricultural Marketing

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Latest Articles:

The August 2026 CPI and PPI Reports: The Late-July Energy Spike Arrives, and the Food Pipeline Still Holds

September 16, 2026

Energy costs surged across both reports this month — diesel fuel up 24.1 percent, gasoline up 3.9 percent — in a single month. At the same time, food inflation sat almost exactly where it sat in July, and the most upstream producer-price stage swung through a wider range than the stage nearest the consumer has moved in three months combined. A real, measurable energy shock landing squarely in the data, alongside a food pipeline that barely moved, is the sharpest evidence yet for the thesis this series has been building since spring.

The August 2026 Beef Import Waiver: A Narrow Tool Aimed at a Narrow Problem

August 25, 2026

This is a targeted policy aimed at a narrow slice of the beef market — imported product for ground beef, much of which is lean processing beef — rather than a broad intervention in the fed-cattle market. It was announced in response to historically tight cattle supplies and unusually high beef prices. Within that narrow lane, the most plausible effect is some additional availability of lower-cost processing beef and some downward pressure on ground-beef prices.

The July 2026 CPI and PPI Reports: The Energy Shock Bypasses the Food Pipeline

August 20, 2026

Energy prices are 14.7 percent above year-ago levels, and yet the raw agricultural commodities that sit at the head of the food pipeline are cheaper than they were last July. That combination is the whole story of this month’s release — but it is not evidence that the energy shock missed agriculture.

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