Annual food-price inflation hovered just above 2% for much of 2024—a significant drop from the double-digit highs of 2022. However, inflation has gradually ticked upward, reaching 2.9% as of August 2025. Consumers are noticing: they estimate food prices to be 5.3% higher than a year ago, up from 5.1% in July. Expectations for future food-price inflation rose to 4.5% in our August survey, higher than we’ve measured since summer 2022.
One possible driver is the visibility of price spikes in specific categories, such as beef, where drought-related reductions in cattle herd counts have tightened supply. Add to that the ripple effects of extreme weather events and shifting trade patterns, and it’s clear why consumers may be bracing for more volatility. Even modest price increases can feel amplified when they affect staple items or coincide with broader economic stress.
The data for this figure come from our Consumer Food Insights survey. Every month since January 2022, we have used our CFI to estimate American consumers’ food inflation perceptions and expectations.
August 28, 2025