2016-12 PAER: Agricultural Outlook for 2017

December 1, 2016

Welcome to our 2017 Agricultural Outlook. It’s a new year that will bring opportunities and challenges for agricultural industries. While no one can accurately predict the future, it is our mission to help you understand the major economic drivers of the agricultural economy in 2017. That begins with a new administration in D.C., which is expected to immediately pass an economic stimulus package to accelerate economic growth. That should have some positive impacts for U.S. agriculture but what about the strength of the U.S. dollar, and expectations for higher interest rates and higher inflation? 

Speaking of the new administration, there was more anti-trade rhetoric this election season than has been around for a long time. Trade is a foundation of the U.S. agricultural economy. Are we moving into a more protectionist era and shifting away from globalization? 

Farm incomes are depressed and the theme of the 2017 outlook is for a continuation of low farm incomes from both crop production as well as the animal industries. In these articles we give you a commodity-by-commodity evaluation. How long will this downturn last? What does it mean to the financial position of the Ag sector? It’s all right here for you to read. 

– Chris Hurt, Editor and Professor of Agricultural Economics 

Articles in this Publication:

Trump’s Election Changes the General Economy Outlook

Weak Ag Trade Outlook for 2017

Lower Grocery Store Food Prices: Good for Consumers and Bad for Farmers

Another Difficult Year for Beef Cattle Producers

Milk Prices Expected to Increase with Stable Feed Costs

Hog Production Losses Continue

High Grain Yields Contribute to Low Prices

Farmland Values Face Third Year of Decline

Cash Rents to Drop in 2017

Financial Outlook Continues to Weaken

2017 Indiana Crop Cost and Expected Returns

Latest Articles:

The August 2026 Beef Import Waiver: A Narrow Tool Aimed at a Narrow Problem

August 25, 2026

This is a targeted policy aimed at a narrow slice of the beef market — imported product for ground beef, much of which is lean processing beef — rather than a broad intervention in the fed-cattle market. It was announced in response to historically tight cattle supplies and unusually high beef prices. Within that narrow lane, the most plausible effect is some additional availability of lower-cost processing beef and some downward pressure on ground-beef prices.

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The July 2026 CPI and PPI Reports: The Energy Shock Bypasses the Food Pipeline

August 20, 2026

Energy prices are 14.7 percent above year-ago levels, and yet the raw agricultural commodities that sit at the head of the food pipeline are cheaper than they were last July. That combination is the whole story of this month’s release — but it is not evidence that the energy shock missed agriculture.

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Indiana’s Farmland Market Holds Steady as Regions Swap Places

August 17, 2026

In sum, state-level aggregate farmland prices exhibited relatively modest changes from 2025 to 2026. Respondents suggest that the majority of market forces are placing downward pressure on farmland prices, so it is not surprising that they expect modest declines through the remainder of 2026.

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