2016-12 PAER: Agricultural Outlook for 2017

December 1, 2016

Welcome to our 2017 Agricultural Outlook. It’s a new year that will bring opportunities and challenges for agricultural industries. While no one can accurately predict the future, it is our mission to help you understand the major economic drivers of the agricultural economy in 2017. That begins with a new administration in D.C., which is expected to immediately pass an economic stimulus package to accelerate economic growth. That should have some positive impacts for U.S. agriculture but what about the strength of the U.S. dollar, and expectations for higher interest rates and higher inflation? 

Speaking of the new administration, there was more anti-trade rhetoric this election season than has been around for a long time. Trade is a foundation of the U.S. agricultural economy. Are we moving into a more protectionist era and shifting away from globalization? 

Farm incomes are depressed and the theme of the 2017 outlook is for a continuation of low farm incomes from both crop production as well as the animal industries. In these articles we give you a commodity-by-commodity evaluation. How long will this downturn last? What does it mean to the financial position of the Ag sector? It’s all right here for you to read. 

– Chris Hurt, Editor and Professor of Agricultural Economics 

Articles in this Publication:

Trump’s Election Changes the General Economy Outlook

Weak Ag Trade Outlook for 2017

Lower Grocery Store Food Prices: Good for Consumers and Bad for Farmers

Another Difficult Year for Beef Cattle Producers

Milk Prices Expected to Increase with Stable Feed Costs

Hog Production Losses Continue

High Grain Yields Contribute to Low Prices

Farmland Values Face Third Year of Decline

Cash Rents to Drop in 2017

Financial Outlook Continues to Weaken

2017 Indiana Crop Cost and Expected Returns

Latest Articles:

Farmland Prices Increase Despite Downward Pressure

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Indiana farmland values hit new record highs in 2025 despite regional declines, with development demand and recreational land gains offsetting downward pressure from lower farm incomes, weaker crop prices, and interest rates.

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Are farmland price expectations “wrong”? It depends how you ask.

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Analysis of the Purdue Farmland Values and Cash Rents Survey shows price expectations often seem inaccurate because they’re assumed to be averages—when many respondents report the most likely price. Viewed this way, expectations are rational in most cases, making them more useful for producers and investors.

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Indiana farmland offers returns above bonds but below equities, with less volatility than stocks. Adding cash rents boosts returns, and its low correlation with equities and inverse correlation with bonds make it a strong portfolio diversifier.

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