Outlook 2024

January 16, 2024

Welcome to the PAER Outlook 2024 issue! As is the tradition, we ask department specialists to spend time thinking about key issues in their field and consider how these have impacted outcomes over the past year and may continue to go forward. We continue to call the issue an “Outlook” to recognize the department’s tradition of delivering programming at the start of the year. This aims to educate stakeholders who may benefit from knowledge in key mission areas of Purdue Ag Econ.

Much of what used to be “Outlook” programming has now transitioned to various center units in the department. In this issue, we feature contributions from faculty members who are prominent leaders in each unit, including Commercial Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness, Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability, Global Trade Analysis, and Regional Development. The PAER editors strongly recommend that readers follow the activities of these centers throughout the year.

The articles in this issue cover our traditional farm economy topics of land values, farm credit, farm costs and return estimates, and dairy markets. Additionally, there are articles addressing the broader economy with dedicated sections on the national economic outlook, trade, policy and food prices. This year we are fortunate to have spotlight topics that discuss key applied research findings from the department in the areas of energy (biofuels policy), rural development (generation gap) and agricultural trade (war in Ukraine).

Altogether, the issue provides a snapshot of the many departmental efforts in service of our land-grant mission, and we hope readers find it engaging and useful.

Roman Keeney, Associate Professor, Agricultural Economics and Co-editor of Purdue Agricultural Economics Report

Articles in this Publication:

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy in 2024

Trade and trade policy outlook, 2024

Will 2024 bring a new Farm Bill?

Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war on global agriculture: spillover effects and policy responses

NCR-Stat: Generational Gap in Rural North Central Region

Biofuel production & policy: Contributions to economic & environmental analyses and policy decision

Food Prices

What To Watch in Dairy Markets in 2024?

2024 Farmland and Cash Rent Outlook

2024 Agricultural Credit Outlook

2024 Purdue Crop Cost & Return Guide

Latest Articles:

The Iran Conflict and Global Food Security: Why the Burden Falls Hardest on the World’s Most Vulnerable

March 31, 2026

When an energy shock ripples out from the Persian Gulf, the headlines focus on oil prices, gasoline costs, implications for value chains and the profit margins of U.S. producers.

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The Iran Conflict and Consumer Food Prices: A Broad but Lagged and Sticky Shock

March 31, 2026

The initial public reaction to an oil price shock reaching $110 per barrel is often to project near-immediate, dramatic increases in grocery prices. This instinct overstates the direct farm-to-retail transmission channel in a straightforward and measurable way. The USDA Economic Research Service tracks how each dollar of consumer food spending is distributed across the supply chain in its Food Dollar Series. The picture it reveals is sobering for those who expect large and rapid retail food price responses driven purely by higher farm input costs.

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The Iran Conflict, Energy Prices, and U.S. Farm Profitability: A Balanced Assessment

March 31, 2026

The conflict that began on February 28, 2026, with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow chokepoint through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s traded oil and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flow. Within days, Brent crude oil surged from roughly $70 per barrel to over $110, the highest level since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Gasoline prices at the pump rose roughly 17 percent in the first two weeks of the conflict, and diesel — the lifeblood of farming operations — followed closely.

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