Utilizing credit and debit card spending transaction data from the firm Facteus, the dashboards feature the average of spending per capita nationwide by zip code. Jayson Lusk, the head and Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University says, “We don’t actually know a lot about consumer food spending through restaurants, as it isn’t accessible for the general public.”

Categorized as Food Away from Home (FAFH), the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service publishes a record of total spending for casual dining and food delivery spending. Lusk explains, however, that these records can be delayed by two to three months and are not separated geographically. These were high motivational factors for partnering with Facteus.

Valerie Kilders, assistant professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University and frequent collaborator of Lusk, says, “Facteus is helpful because the data captures a large share of payments that are being made.”

The center’s data dashboards include sales starting from 2015. This enabled the CFDAS team to observe key insights into consumer behavior during the prominent years of the COVID-19 pandemic. For food delivery, there was no discernable dip from early 2020 to late 2022, in fact, some merchants, namely fast-food restaurant chains like McDonald’s and Taco Bell, experienced an increase in sales.

In addition, food delivery merchants like UberEATS and Door Dash experienced a spike in sales. Though it was “a small spike relative to the size of total spending in restaurants,” says Lusk, it was still “a pretty big, sustained increase.”

He adds, “Some people who hadn’t used these delivery platforms were confronted by the fact that they are fearful of leaving their homes. Therefore, they were incentivized to create accounts and use them.”

Observing UberEATS, he points out a strong upward trend in sales during the pandemic and has continued to grow. Kilders says, “The pandemic introduced an external shock. For many people it wasn’t feasible to go out to eat or grocery shop in person. These people relied on accessing their food in a safe manner, which included food delivery. As a result, consumers integrated this into their food consumption habits.”

Alternatively, Lusk and his team note a dip in sales for more traditional “sit-down” restaurant chains like Applebee’s. Many factors could have contributed to this, including local and state COVID-19 pandemic regulations requiring consumers to quarantine and employee shortages due to health and safety requirements and federal stimulus payments.

Kilders explains, “Certain sectors of the restaurant industry suffered more than others because the business model of sit-down restaurants does not lend itself to quarantine conditions as easily as, for example, that of fast-food chains. Subsequently, sit-down restaurants first had to establish the infrastructure to function in the pandemic environment.”

Lusk says, “Roughly a year from the start of the pandemic, restaurants had a hard time staffing. This is still true today, but it’s also dwindling.” Kilders also emphasizes that there’s been a recovery in sales.

In the future, Lusk predicts that it’ll be harder to have distinct categories of restaurants as they exist now, suggesting that they may merge. “Lines will blur as entrepreneurs innovate to support customer needs,” he says.

As for the future of consumer behaviors, this is largely good news. Due to the pandemic, he anticipates an increase in demand for food delivery, but also foresees restaurants offering a combination of sit-down, delivery and take-out services. He elaborates, “The structure of a restaurant will look a lot different; the infrastructure will be set up to support all restaurant categories.”

This could look like a “ghost kitchen,” or a restaurant with a store front that only operates as a food delivery and/or take-out service, or the widespread use of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies to take orders at fast-food chains.