Extension

Purdue experts provide spring climate outlook

April 8, 2019

Meteorological spring technically begins on the first day of March, with astronomical spring following on March 19 or 20, depending on the year. This year, Indiana started to see 70 degree temperatures, however briefly, around March 13, with a return to higher temperatures at the end of the month.

April, May and June constitute the traditional planting season for Indiana’s field crops, with potential for a bit of July planting if the first three months do not cooperate. Over this time period, a weak El Niño is predicted to continue. Looking at average conditions for prior El Niño months via the Useful to Usable Climate Patterns Viewer tool, this information unfortunately sends no clear signal about spring temperatures. For precipitation, the tool shows a mild drying for Central Indiana in May spreading through most parts of the state for June.

Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Center is providing a three-month outlook showing healthy chances for above-average precipitation over April, May, and June, with most of the state also slightly predicted for above average temperatures.

Why the discrepancy?

One reason is the weakness of this El Niño. Temperatures are hanging out in the Pacific just above the 0.5 degree Celsius cutoff. Effects of El Niño are most greatly experienced, thus predicted, on the West Coast and Southeastern portions of the United States. Indiana being a Midwestern state, this results in less confidence around this particular El Niño.

Hans Schmitz, Posey County Extension director, explains, “Predictions for the spring are more heavily weighted on prior weather than El Niño this year.”

This leads to the second reason for the discrepancy.

Indiana is, and has been, rather wet this year. Posey County is about 5 inches of precipitation above their climatic normal. Marion County is 4 inches above. Steuben County is a little under an inch above. All of the moisture from the Plains and Mississippi River Basin is currently channeled downstream to our soils, and soils take time to dry. Add to that the active weather pattern we have seen since January, with weekly low-pressure systems and corresponding frontal boundaries traveling across the nation, and we have conditions based on the recent past that suggest slightly higher temperatures, wetter conditions to continue through June.

The National Climate Prediction Center outlook hinges on the continuation of the active weather pattern, particularly when looking at hot, wet predictions for Alaska. If the jet stream and upper air flow return to a more east-west pattern, conditions could vary from the prediction.

Featured Stories

Sam and Kelly Williams are pictured on their farm in West Virginia’s South Branch Valley.

Community Champions

Sam and Kelly Williams, alumni of Purdue’s agricultural economics program, are hometown...

Dr. Abhinav Tyagi talks to forest managers and scientists in a forest in India.

Tyagi to Study Otters, Fish Genomics as Smith Fellow

Dr. Abhinav Tyagi, who is the first Smith Fellowship honoree from India, will be studying river...

Dr. Abhinav Tyagi speaks to scientists and forest service personnel in India.

Dr. Abhinav Tyagi Set to Study River Otters, Fish as Smith Fellow in FNR

Dr. Abhinav Tyagi's past work has focused on applying genomics to wildlife conservation and...

Drs. Mike Saunders and Zhao Ma pose with the Family Forests Comprehensive Education Program Award presented by National Woodland Owners Association (NWOA) and National Association of University Forest Resources Programs (NAUFRP).

FNR Extension Team Receives Family Forests Comprehensive Education Award

The Purdue FNR extension team was named as a recipient of the Family Forests Comprehensive...

yuliia khoma poses with ferns in the greenhouse

Second plant, second chance, second home: Ukrainian Scholar Yuliia Khoma

Khoma relocated to the U.S. with her son and husband through a scholar support program offered by...

From farm roots to future agronomist: Finding a home at Purdue Agriculture

Growing up on a farm in Greensburg, Indiana, Purdue sophomore Justin Bedel developed a love for...