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Policy & Law

Fertilizer Dependence in the U.S. and Brazil: Risks from the Middle East Conflict

With renewed tensions in the Middle East and concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer markets are once again under pressure. In this episode of Commercial AgBriefs, Joana Colussi compares fertilizer supply and demand trends in the U.S. and Brazil over the past five years and explains how dependent each country remains on imported nitrogen, phosphate, and potash.

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Middle East Conflict Revives Concerns Over Fertilizer Dependence in the U.S. and Brazil

Four years after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, which pushed fertilizer prices to historic highs, the current conflict in the Middle East has once again brought attention to the risks associated with dependence on imported fertilizers for agricultural production. With Iran restricting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route linking the Persian Gulf to global export markets, major supply disruptions have been affecting the United States and Brazil – the world’s two largest country-level fertilizer importers. This article compares fertilizer supply and demand trends over the past five years in both countries, analyzing the scale of their external dependence and the potential implications for agricultural competitiveness.

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Brazil Heads for a Record Soybean Harvest as Farm Margins Approach Breakeven

Brazil is projected to produce a record 6.5 billion bushels of soybeans in the 2025-26 crop season, but farm margins are expected to fall to their lowest level in nearly two decades. Lower soybean prices, elevated production costs, and weak port premiums are compressing profitability for Brazilian farmers, raising questions about whether the country’s rapid soybean acreage expansion can continue.

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Why Brazil’s Soybean Costs Are Lower Than in the U.S.

Brazil has gained a significant cost advantage in global soybean production — and farm-level data helps explain why. In this Purdue Commercial AgBrief, Joana Colussi compares soybean production costs, revenues, and profitability between a typical farm in Iowa and one in Mato Grosso, Brazil using standardized agri benchmark data from 2020–2024.

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U.S. and Brazil Soybean Competitiveness: Farm-Level Costs and Returns

This article compares farm-level soybean costs and profitability in Iowa and Mato Grosso from 2020–2024. Brazilian farms face higher direct input costs, while U.S. farms carry heavier land-related overhead. Structural cost differences help explain Brazil’s sustained profitability and ongoing competitiveness in global soybean markets.

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What We Heard This Year—and Where We’re Going, AgCast 203

Chad Fiechter and Todd Kuethe reflect on the conversations that shaped the Purdue Commercial AgCast in 2025 and what those discussions reveal about agriculture moving forward. The episode also previews upcoming changes and what’s ahead for the podcast.

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D.C. Insights: A Conversation with Joe Balagtas

Joe Balagtas, a former senior economist at the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) and professor of agricultural economics at Purdue joins colleague hosts Todd Kuethe and Chad Fiechter in this episode of the Purdue Commercial AgCast. Balagtas shares his unique experiences working at the CEA during the Trump administration and his role in providing the President with critical economic information.

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Understanding Ag Policy: A Conversation with Matt Erickson

Matt Erickson, an ag economic and policy advisor and former chief economist for the US Senate Committee joins hosts Todd Kuethe and Chad Fiechter in this episode of Purdue Commercial AgCast.

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Ag Innovation & Policy Direction: A Preview of Upcoming Purdue Top Farmer Conference

In this special edition of the Purdue Commercial AgCast, Matt Erickson, policy specialist at Farm Credit Services of America, and Chad Fiechter, research director at Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, join James Mintert to discuss their upcoming presentations at the Purdue Top Farmer Conference on January 10th. Erickson highlights the economic and policy issues under the new administration, including the impact of inflation, tariffs, and the farm bill. Fiechter introduces a new AI-powered app designed to help farmers easily calculate financial ratios using tax and balance sheet data.

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PLC or ARC: Making Your 2024 Farm Bill Program Price Protection Decision

Brad Lubben, policy specialist and extension associate professor from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, joins Purdue ag economists James Mintert and Michael Langemeier for a discussion on key 2024 farm program details. They highlight differences between the PLC and ARC programs for the 2024 crop year and how benefits from the two programs are likely to differ. After listening to the podcast you’ll be ready to make your 2024 farm program choice.

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