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Policy & Law
Brazil’s corn and soybean production has continued expanding despite challenging market conditions. But with rising input costs, tighter credit, lower margins, and weather uncertainty ahead, will 2027 mark a turning point—or will Brazil’s growth trend continue?
Read MoreThe May 2026 CPI and PPI data, read together, tell a coherent and analytically arresting story: quiet at the shelf, loading at record rates upstream.
Read MoreU.S. corn production costs remain structurally higher than Brazil’s, driven largely by higher land expenses. Meanwhile, Brazil’s second-crop system allows producers to spread fixed costs across soybeans and corn, reinforcing its competitive position in global markets. Using standardized economic data from the agribenchmark network, we compare corn production costs and returns in Iowa and Mato Grosso from 2020 to 2024.
Read MoreThe conflict’s direct impact on farm profitability in the 2026 crop year is likely to be modest and uneven. A more significant farm-level reckoning is coming in 2027 if Strait of Hormuz restrictions persist into the fall 2026 input purchasing and spring 2027 planting cycles.
Read MoreBrazil’s rise in corn production is reshaping global competition for U.S. producers. This analysis compares corn production costs, revenues, and profitability between Iowa and Mato Grosso farms from 2020–2024, highlighting how Brazil’s second-crop corn system lowers fixed costs while exposing farmers to greater fertilizer dependence and weather risk.
Read MoreCommodity Prices at the Crossroads: Trade Policy, the Iran Conflict, and the 2026 U.S. Grain Markets
Three forces interact to shape the 2026 commodity price outlook: (1) the trade policy headwind created by tariffs and retaliatory measures that suppress the transmission of supply tightening into higher U.S. export prices; (2) a biofuel demand tailwind that works through domestic markets and is strengthened by elevated oil prices and renewable fuels policy; and (3) the emerging El Niño climate pattern that elevates production uncertainty in both the U.S. and global crops.
Read MoreWith renewed tensions in the Middle East and concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer markets are once again under pressure. In this episode of Commercial AgBriefs, Joana Colussi compares fertilizer supply and demand trends in the U.S. and Brazil over the past five years and explains how dependent each country remains on imported nitrogen, phosphate, and potash.
Read MoreFour years after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, which pushed fertilizer prices to historic highs, the current conflict in the Middle East has once again brought attention to the risks associated with dependence on imported fertilizers for agricultural production. With Iran restricting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route linking the Persian Gulf to global export markets, major supply disruptions have been affecting the United States and Brazil – the world’s two largest country-level fertilizer importers. This article compares fertilizer supply and demand trends over the past five years in both countries, analyzing the scale of their external dependence and the potential implications for agricultural competitiveness.
Read MoreThe Bureau of Labor Statistics collects Producer Price Index (PPI) prices on the Tuesday of the week containing the 13th of each month. The March survey date was March 10. The Iran conflict began on February 28, making March 10 exactly ten days post-onset. The February survey date was February 10 — eighteen days before the conflict began – but well within the window of pre-conflict rhetoric and US troop buildup in the region.
Read MoreThe March 2026 CPI report confirms what the structural analysis predicted: the Iran Conflict’s initial consumer price impact is concentrated in motor fuels, which respond to crude oil prices with almost no lag. The 0.9 percent monthly CPI increase is large by recent standards — the largest monthly increase since mid-2022, but it is not yet the broad-based food and goods inflation that a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption will eventually produce.
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