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Policy & Law
The conflict that began on February 28, 2026, with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow chokepoint through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s traded oil and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flow. Within days, Brent crude oil surged from roughly $70 per barrel to over $110, the highest level since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Gasoline prices at the pump rose roughly 17 percent in the first two weeks of the conflict, and diesel — the lifeblood of farming operations — followed closely.
Read MoreThe U.S. economy in 2026 is expected to grow slowly, primarily due to slower consumer spending growth. Unemployment should remain around 4.6%, as the growth in job openings matches the growth in job searchers. Inflation is likely to hold steady near 2.5%, due to lower oil prices and slower growth in housing costs. Tariffs will add to goods inflation. The Federal Reserve may make further modest reductions in the federal funds rate, leading to somewhat lower interest rates. Barring unexpected shocks, the outlook is for another year of slow expansion rather than recession.
Read MoreU.S. trade policy is being made without even a textbook understanding of International Economics. The policies of 2025 will largely continue in 2026, hurting export-oriented agriculture and eroding U.S. standing in the world.
Read MoreThe U.S. Farm Bill, as we typically think of it, remains in limbo. Changes to major spending programs on commodities and SNAP were incorporated into the 2025 budget reconciliation act, while remaining programs were left to end-of-year extensions. The uncertainty about returning to a normal farm bill process, coupled with rapidly adjusting trade policies, makes government action a significant source of uncertainty for U.S. agriculture.
Read MoreBrazil is projected to produce a record 6.5 billion bushels of soybeans in the 2025-26 crop season, but farm margins are expected to fall to their lowest level in nearly two decades. Lower soybean prices, elevated production costs, and weak port premiums are compressing profitability for Brazilian farmers, raising questions about whether the country’s rapid soybean acreage expansion can continue.
Read MoreBrazil has gained a significant cost advantage in global soybean production — and farm-level data helps explain why. In this Purdue Commercial AgBrief, Joana Colussi compares soybean production costs, revenues, and profitability between a typical farm in Iowa and one in Mato Grosso, Brazil using standardized agri benchmark data from 2020–2024.
Read MoreThis article compares farm-level soybean costs and profitability in Iowa and Mato Grosso from 2020–2024. Brazilian farms face higher direct input costs, while U.S. farms carry heavier land-related overhead. Structural cost differences help explain Brazil’s sustained profitability and ongoing competitiveness in global soybean markets.
Read MoreChad Fiechter and Todd Kuethe reflect on the conversations that shaped the Purdue Commercial AgCast in 2025 and what those discussions reveal about agriculture moving forward. The episode also previews upcoming changes and what’s ahead for the podcast.
Read MoreJoe Balagtas, a former senior economist at the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) and professor of agricultural economics at Purdue joins colleague hosts Todd Kuethe and Chad Fiechter in this episode of the Purdue Commercial AgCast. Balagtas shares his unique experiences working at the CEA during the Trump administration and his role in providing the President with critical economic information.
Read MoreMatt Erickson, an ag economic and policy advisor and former chief economist for the US Senate Committee joins hosts Todd Kuethe and Chad Fiechter in this episode of Purdue Commercial AgCast.
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