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General Farm Management & Strategy

Alternative Futures for Agriculture: A Scenario Analysis Exercise

The point of scenario analysis is not to predict how the future will unfold, but rather to consider different scenarios that might occur and what the economic environment might look like in these scenarios. Participants then use these situations to consider what strategies their businesses might use were these situations to occur.

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Farm Growth: Venture Analysis and Business Models

Continued consolidation and concentration in the agricultural industries has stimulated numerous discussions and debates about the advantages and disadvantages of large vs. small firms and why the general trend/direction of most structural change in agriculture is to larger scale businesses.

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The Wealth Effect in U.S. Agriculture

Since 2009, wealth in the U.S. farm sector has surged along with booming farmland values. Similar to nonfarm households, farm enterprises historically have used wealth to support consumption and investments when income fades. During years of low income, farmers tap their existing wealth to finance spending on capital investments such as buildings, vehicles, machinery and other equipment.

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Is the Current Farm Prosperity Sustainable? What to Watch

Many are asking whether the current prosperity in farming is sustainable. The answer is not obvious, but the following “what to watch” list might provide a useful perspective to answer this question.

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When Do Farm Booms Become Bubbles? (Transcript)

Moderator: Jason Henderson
Vice President and Omaha Branch Executive
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

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When Do Farm Booms Become Bubbles? (Remarks)

I want to talk today very briefly or concisely about “when do farm booms become bubbles?” We’ll start by reinforcing the idea we just heard that agriculture’s history has some remarkable periods of booms and busts in it. Part of that can be explained by the heavy capital intensity of the agricultural economy.

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When Do Farm Booms Become Bubbles? (Manuscript)

Rapid increases in agricultural incomes and asset values have brought back memories of previous booms and busts. Henderson, Gloy, and Boehlje (2011) chronicled previous agricultural booms and busts noting that they have often corresponded to rapid expansions and contractions of agricultural exports.

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When Do Farm Booms Become Bubbles?

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium, July 16-17, 2012 – Session 1: When Do Farm Booms Become Bubbles? | Rapid increases in agricultural incomes and asset values have brought back memories of previous booms and busts. Henderson, Gloy, and Boehlje (2011) chronicled previous agricultural booms and busts noting that they have often corresponded to rapid expansions and contractions of agricultural exports.

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Is This Farm Boom Different?

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium, July 16-17, 2012 – Conference Rapporteur: Is This Farm Boom Different? | This has been a very stimulating and informative symposium. First,I will summarize the key “take-aways” of the presentations from my perspective. Then I will make some additional observations and identify some key uncertainties that are shaping the future of agriculture–“what to watch” in these turbulent times.

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Investment and Financing Behavior of Farmers: Responding to Boom and Bust Times

Although the U.S. farming sector has exhibited very strong financial performance during the past 5-7 years in terms of income generation, cash flow and debt servicing capacity, and equity accumulation, that strong performance has been accompanied by increased risk.

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