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Ag producer sentiment rebounds; producers react favorably to U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement

Ag Barometer Outlook The Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rebounds; producers react favorably to U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. (Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer/James Mintert)

Agricultural producer sentiment rebounded in October, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The October barometer reading of 136 was 22 points higher than September, which was the lowest reading for the survey since 2016. The barometer is based on a survey of 400 agricultural producers from across the country.

The sentiment improved as producers became more optimistic about current conditions and, especially, future conditions. The barometer’s two sub-indices both increased in October; the Index of Current Conditions rose 19 points to 115 and the Index of Expectations rose 24 points to a reading of 146.

“We continue to see large month-to-month variations in the barometer readings as a result of swings in major commodity prices and emerging news about trade negotiations with key ag trade partners,” said James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

The Trump Administration announced the renegotiated U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement in early October. To better understand producers’ views, the survey asked whether they believed the agreement would relieve their concerns over farm income in the next 12 months. While just over 60 percent of producers said the agreement would at least somewhat relieve their farm income concerns, 25 percent of producers said it would not.

Respondents were also optimistic about crop prices for the upcoming year. The October survey asked producers about their expectations for corn, soybean, wheat and cotton prices in the next 12 months. In each case, more producers said they expect to see higher prices. For corn, soybeans and wheat, the ratio of producers expecting higher prices to those expecting lower prices was just over 3 to 1.

To learn whether this year’s sharp decline in soybean prices is affecting producers’ 2019 soybean planting intentions, farmers who planted soybeans in 2018 were asked whether they intended to maintain that same acreage in 2019. Of those respondents, 77 percent said their acreage would remain unchanged. However, one in five soybean growers said they planned to reduce soybean acreage in 2019. Among those who plan to reduce their acreage, two-thirds said they plan to reduce their 2019 soybean acreage by more than 10 percent.

Read the full October Ag Economy Barometer report at http://purdue.edu/agbarometer. This month’s report includes additional information on producers’ views on farmland values and their intentions to make large farm investments. Additional October barometer analysis can also be found in a video from Minter at https://youtu.be/c9zMBggrAmk.

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture

The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University’s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center’s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today’s business environment.

About CME Group

As the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data – empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest ratesequity indexesforeign exchangeenergyagricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex® platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world’s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing. With a range of pre- and post-trade products and services underpinning the entire lifecycle of a trade, CME Group also offers optimization and reconciliation services through TriOptima, and trade processing services through Traiana.

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec, EBS, TriOptima, and Traiana are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD, EBS Group LTD, TriOptima AB, and Traiana, Inc., respectively. Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and S&P are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and S&P/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. 

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