Agricultural Economics
Detailed determinants of pandemic job losses featured in PAER 2025 Outlook issue
The 2025 Purdue Agricultural Economics Report (PAER) Outlook features an examination of the job market during the COVID-19 pandemic. (Purdue Agricultural Communications photo/Tom Campbell) WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — The Purdue Agricultural Economics Report’s (PAER) annual outlook issue provides expert insights and economic analysis to help farmers, agribusiness leaders and policymakers navigate the evolving landscape in 2025. Accompanying articles that focus on the ripple effects of the 2024 election and policy shifts, this year’s issue features an examination of the job market during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The closing article of the 2025 Outlook includes research from assistant professor Laura Montenovo, who — along with co-authors from the U.S., China, Korea and Australia — examines the determinants of job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis across multiple countries allows the researchers to account for both differences in the prevalence of the virus and policy response (e.g., social distancing) when comparing labor market outcomes. Considering these factors, the authors show that policy responses to COVID-19 were a major factor impacting the 2020 job markets.
“Our research highlights how preexisting job characteristics, particularly the ability to work remotely or the reliance on face-to-face tasks, played a crucial role in shaping employment outcomes during the pandemic,” Montenovo said. “We also found that strict social-distancing policies significantly impacted labor markets, even in countries with relatively low COVID-19 cases, underscoring the role of policy decisions in driving employment trends.”
The study finds that more experienced professional workers (e.g., teaching or administration) who had the flexibility of remote work remained fully employed throughout the pandemic compared to entry-level or service jobs that tend to employ younger workers. Montenovo’s findings offer critical insights into economic resilience and labor demand considerations for future crises.
Alongside an additional article by Montenovo focused on rural economic health, other Purdue economists contributed articles analyzing trade tensions, farm bill prospects and food price trends. Experts provide forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and potential policy shifts affecting agriculture, while in-depth reports examine trade policy, farm costs and returns, land values, credit markets, and the dairy sector. With high input costs, tight margins and rising credit demand, the outlook remains moderately pessimistic, signaling ongoing challenges for farm profitability.
The Purdue Agricultural Economics Report is a quarterly publication from the department of agricultural economics. Articles in the annual outlook issue are intended to provide a road map for understanding challenges facing the agricultural economy.
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Purdue University’s College of Agriculture is one of the world’s leading colleges of agricultural, food, life and natural resource sciences. The college is committed to preparing students to make a difference in whatever careers they pursue; stretching the frontiers of science to discover solutions to some of our most pressing global, regional and local challenges; and, through Purdue Extension and other engagement programs, educating the people of Indiana, the nation and the world to improve their lives and livelihoods. To learn more about Purdue Agriculture, visit this site.
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Purdue University is a public research university leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities in the United States, Purdue discovers, disseminates and deploys knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 107,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, locations and modalities, including more than 58,000 at our main campus in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue’s main campus has frozen tuition 13 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap — including its comprehensive urban expansion, the Mitch Daniels School of Business, Purdue Computes and the One Health initiative — at https://www.purdue.edu/president/strategic-initiatives.
Writer: Morgan French
Media contact: Morgan French, mmfrench@purdue.edu
Sources: Laura Montenovo, lmonteno@purdue.edu
Agricultural Communications: Maureen Manier, mmanier@purdue.edu, 765-494-8415
