A potential record El Niño is now forecast with high model consensus; the spring predictability barrier has been crossed; and we are within the critical agricultural windows for the most exposed crop systems.
The conflict’s direct impact on farm profitability in the 2026 crop year is likely to be modest and uneven. A more significant farm-level reckoning is coming in 2027 if Strait of Hormuz restrictions persist into the fall 2026 input purchasing and spring 2027 planting cycles.
