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fertilizer

Fertilizer Dependence in the U.S. and Brazil: Risks from the Middle East Conflict

With renewed tensions in the Middle East and concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer markets are once again under pressure. In this episode of Commercial AgBriefs, Joana Colussi compares fertilizer supply and demand trends in the U.S. and Brazil over the past five years and explains how dependent each country remains on imported nitrogen, phosphate, and potash.

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Middle East Conflict Revives Concerns Over Fertilizer Dependence in the U.S. and Brazil

Four years after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, which pushed fertilizer prices to historic highs, the current conflict in the Middle East has once again brought attention to the risks associated with dependence on imported fertilizers for agricultural production. With Iran restricting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route linking the Persian Gulf to global export markets, major supply disruptions have been affecting the United States and Brazil – the world’s two largest country-level fertilizer importers. This article compares fertilizer supply and demand trends over the past five years in both countries, analyzing the scale of their external dependence and the potential implications for agricultural competitiveness.

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The Right Way to Cut Costs

Tight margins often trigger cost-cutting decisions, but not all cuts improve profitability. This article explains how marginal analysis can help producers evaluate fertilizer, seed, and seeding rate decisions to protect returns when prices are low.

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Indiana Farm Income Outlook Report, Fall 2025

The Fall 2025 Indiana Farm Income Outlook, published by the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF),  provides updated projections for Indiana farm profitability through 2026.

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Indiana Farm Income Outlook Report, Spring 2025

The Spring 2025 Indiana Farm Income Outlook, published by the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF),  provides updated projections for Indiana farm profitability through 2026. The report highlights a projected 40% increase in Indiana net farm income in 2025—driven largely by higher government payments—and offers insight into trends in crop and livestock markets, production expenses, and policy impacts.

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Trends in General Inflation and Farm Input Prices

Recent data shows that while farm input prices are influenced by general inflation, they often diverge due to distinct supply and demand dynamics for each input. This article explores long-term trends from 1973–2024 and highlights how inputs like labor and machinery tend to track inflation more closely than others like feed or fertilizer.

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2025/26 Indiana Farm Custom Rates

The rates reported in this publication were compiled from questionnaires received from farmers, farm owners, farm custom operators, and professional farm managers in Indiana during the last month of 2024 and the first three months of 2025. Respondents were asked to report custom rates they had either paid or received during the past year.

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Buying Inputs in the Current Business Climate

Grain farmers are facing significantly lower crop prices and incomes in 2025 compared to previous years which have resulted in intense pressure to lower costs through negotiations on cash rents and purchased inputs. Much of this negotiation has focused on price – farmers are asking for price reductions, but suppliers of fertilizer, seed, and chemicals are hesitant to adjust prices down. In many cases suppliers have laid in inventories at costs that provide little flexibility to reduce prices without dramatically compressing their margins.

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Crop Budget Spreadsheet

This spreadsheet can be used along with the Purdue Crop Cost & Return Guide to examine gross revenue, costs, and earnings for crop enterprises.  The user can evaluate up to three full-season crops, and the wheat double-crop soybean system. Updated March 2026.

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Trends in General Inflation and Farm Input Prices

Most of the recent discussion involving input price changes in U.S. production agriculture has focused on fertilizer prices, which have declined during the last few months. Other inputs have not necessarily experienced this decline in prices.

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