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General Farm Management & Strategy

Financial Stress on Crop Farms: Who Is Most at Risk in the 2024–26 Downturn?

Midwest crop producers have experienced a significant downturn in corn, soybean, and wheat prices since late 2023, resulting in a drop in net returns in 2024. Moreover, current expectations are that prices will continue to remain at or below the cost of production for at least a couple more years. Consequently, a key question being asked is as follows: “Who is the most vulnerable financially during this downturn”?

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Factors Impacting Farm Growth

This article presents results from a recent survey pertaining to farm goals, and discusses the relationships between farm growth, farm goals, producer sentiment, and farm characteristics.

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Farmer Sentiment Weakens as Producer Confidence in Future Wanes

Farmer sentiment dipped again in August as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index fell 10 points to 125. Producers were markedly less optimistic about the future in August as the Index of Future Expectations dropped 16 points to 123. This was the lowest reading for the future index since last September. Purdue ag economists James Mintert and Michael Langemeier share insights into the results of the August 2025 survey, conducted from August 11-15, in this episode of the Purdue Commercial AgCast.

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Crop Net Return Prospects, Presentation at Pinney Purdue Field Day

Michael Langemeier presented at the Pinney Purdue Field Day in Wanatah, Indiana on August 20, 2025, on crop net returns and the farmland market.

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Long-Run Cash Rent Spreadsheet Tool

Examine breakeven prices, earnings per acre, breakeven cash rents, and trends in working capital with this spreadsheet tool.

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Purdue Flexible Lease Workshop

September 16 at 7 pm or September 23 at 9 am

The Flexible Lease virtual Workshop, presented by the Purdue Extension Land Lease Team, will include a presentation and discussion to help you decide if a flexible land lease arrangement is right for your farm.

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Flex Lease Computations Spreadsheet Tool

Need help setting a fair flexible lease agreement? This easy-to-use spreadsheet lets you plug in your own numbers—like crop budget line items, yields, and prices—to calculate lease rates and earnings per acre. Whether you’re negotiating a new agreement or comparing alternative, this tool helps take the guesswork out.

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Flexible Cash Lease Parameters

Explore how different lease types—from crop share to flexible cash leases—impact risk and returns for both landowners and tenants. This analysis uses real Indiana data to compare a fixed cash rent lease, a crop share lease, and eight flexible cash lease arrangements, helping you evaluate which structure fits your farm’s goals. Flex leases with base rent and bonuses are gaining traction—see why they may be a smart alternative to fixed cash rent.

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Comparing Net Returns for Alternative Leasing Arrangements

Leases on agricultural land are strongly influenced by local custom and tradition. Compare net returns to land derived from crop share, fixed cash rent, and flexible cash lease arrangements.

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Flexible Cash Lease Comparisons

Compare crop share and flexible cash lease agreements from a landowners perspective for almost 20 years (2007–2025). See bonus payment trends for flexible leases, year-by-year comparisons of net return, and which lease offers more protection in volatile years.

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