hogs. pork

The nation’s pork producers have indicated to USDA that they are not expanding the breeding herd and, in fact, intend to reduce farrowings this spring and summer. This means pork supplies will be somewhat less than had been anticipated and that hog prices will be somewhat higher.

The outlook for the pork industry has turned somewhat more optimistic in recent weeks. The sources of that optimism include a $2 to $4 increase in spring and summer lean hog futures prices since the first of the year and slightly lower new-crop soybean meal prices. A bit higher hog prices and a little lower cost add to the potential for a profitable year.

Pork producers in 2016 are expected to experience another year of tight margins similar to the year just completed. Pork production is expected to rise by about one percent, but beef production will rise by four percent and poultry by about three percent.

Live hog prices fell below $40 per hundredweight last week. This means hog prices are at their lowest level since November of 2009 when the U.S. was just beginning to pull off the bottom of the great recession.

The pork industry has largely overcome the impacts of the 2014 PED virus. Pork producers have been disciplined in limiting expansion after record 2014 profits.

Soybean meal is an important but an “economically” secondary feed ingredient in hog diets compared to corn. My estimates suggest that soybean meal costs have been about 22 percent of the total costs of raising hogs over the past decade, compared to 32 percent for corn.

Weather damaged corn and soybean fields are also harmful to hog producers. Rising feed prices mean higher costs of production for the pork industry. Recent higher corn and soybean meal prices have increased anticipated hog costs by about $10 per head.

The pork industry continues to adjust from the supply shock created by the PED virus last year. Live prices peaked in the summer of 2014 as PED losses mounted and then fell into the late winter of 2015.

More hogs than expected was the theme of the pork market in the first quarter of 2015. The USDA March Hogs and Pigs report did little to help explain why hog numbers were high, other than to simply admit that hog inventory counts from previous surveys were too low.