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Corn Outlook Update Following USDA’s June WASDE Report

Purdue ag economists James Mintert and Nathanael Thompson discussed the updated corn outlook following USDA’s June World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on the latest Purdue Commercial AgCast video podcast. The latest corn crop condition ratings were discussed along with implications for 2023 U.S. corn yield, production and carryover stocks.

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Farmer Sentiment Sours as Crop Prices Decline

Purdue ag economists James Mintert and Michael Langemeier share some insight into the results of the May 2023 Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey. Producer sentiment fell to its weakest reading since July 2022, as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index declined 19 points to a reading of 104 in May. This month’s survey was conducted from May 15-19, 2023.

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Corn Basis Implications from July-September Futures and Weather Conditions

Corn and soybean basis has been relatively steady in recent weeks in most regions of the eastern Corn Belt. Attention now shifts to the July-September corn futures price spread, which has a strong inversion—September trading for $0.73/bu. less than July. How will this impact basis patterns for the remainder of the summer?

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Contingency Planning with Cash Flow Shortages

Contingency plans related to how to respond to changes in projected cash flows are also important. Given the expected drop in crop prices this fall, it would be prudent for a farm to examine the sensitivity of their cash flow and repayment capacity to changes in crop prices.

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Impact of Lower Corn Prices on Swine Feed Costs

Indiana corn prices during the first quarter of this year were on average approximately $6.60 per bushel. The most recent WASDE report indicates that corn prices could be substantially lower for the upcoming crop.

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New and Improved Crop Basis Tool

It is hard for me to believe, but the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture Crop Basis Tool has been around for more than five years. Since then, the Tool has served as a valuable source of current and historical corn and soybean basis information for producers and grain industry participants.

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What Does the Federal Fund Rate Increases at May FOMC Meeting Mean?

During the May 3rd Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the FOMC voting members raised the Federal Funds Rate by another 25 basis points; making the target Federal Funds Rate between 5% and 5.25%. This Federal Reserve has consistently increased the Federal Funds Rate during each FOMC meeting for over a year.

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Why is Managing Strategic Risk So Important in Production Agriculture?

Strategic risk is difficult to quantify.  Despite this fact, it is important to prepare risks impacting U.S. farms and build resilience.

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U.S. Corn Exports Struggle to Meet USDA’s Weak Export Forecast

Seasonally, U.S. corn exports tend to peak in the spring and weaken into the summer months. Although weekly corn export shipments have improved since late winter, they have not increased enough to offset weak exports last fall and especially during much of the winter.

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Producer Sentiment and Farm Growth

There are numerous reasons why a farm may want to expand including the following: reduce costs, improve profit margins, improve asset utilization, bring in new family members, invest retained earnings, and more fully utilize the skills of key managers (Boehlje and Langemeier, 2018). The first three reasons are related to economies of size. In general,…

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