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outlook

The Financial Downturn: Back to the Future (Reversion to the Mean)

Mike Boehlje presents his Distinguished Professor Seminar on the Purdue campus. Mike discusses the downturn in the U.S. agriculture sector, applied research he has conducted with Purdue colleagues related to this topic and programming provided by Purdue.​

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Crop Margins in a Boom-Moderation Price Cycle

A glance at a chart of commodity prices over say 100 or more years reveals periods of surging prices followed by a period of moderation in prices. Once prices moderate, they may stay relatively low for an extended time. Some have observed that this total cycle may be around 30 years, with the boom-moderation phase lasting 12 to 15 years.

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​Long-Term Outlook for U.S. Ag. Economy

Recorded October 30, 2015 | Discussion focuses on the macroeconomic outlook and expected impacts on exchange rates and interest rates, a review of factors driving change in the crop sector including shifts in supplies taking place, and a review of expected returns for corn and soybeans and prospects for farmland prices in the the Midwest.

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Crop ​Outlook for 2015-2016​​

Recorded September 14, 2015 | Outlook for corn and soybeans following USDA’s Sept. 2015 Crop Production & Supply/Demand Reports. Features review of factors influencing prices and provides marketing & management recommendations. Program features Purdue Economists Chris Hurt, Corinne Alexander & James Mintert.

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The Bears Control the 2015 Indiana Farmland Market

Last year at this time there were signals that the boom propelling crop agriculture upward for ten years was running out of gas. Since then, the continued low grain prices have begun to influence things other than net farm income. Purchases of machinery, buildings, farmland, and other capital items have declined. There has also been…

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Clues to Future Crop Economics From the Past

U.S. and global crop agriculture seems to be in a downward transition from record high economic activity during 2010 to 2013. Not surprisingly, the current downward adjustments are likely just a portion of a longer run cycle.

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Mini-Boom Ahead for the Livestock Industry

The U.S. livestock industry has entered a new era of much higher product prices, lower costs of production, and favorable margins for producers and their input suppliers. This new era is a reversal of what took place starting in about 2007 through mid-2013 when margins were often negative, producer balance sheets were eroding, and lenders anxiety about the health of their livestock accounts was growing continuously.

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