February 13, 2015

Risk and Uncertainty

This series of articles will provide an introduction to risk and uncertainty, and discuss tools and strategies that can be used to mitigate risk and uncertainty.

ARTICLES WITHIN PUBLICATION:

What is Risk and Uncertainty

January 13, 2015

This article, the first in a series of articles, discusses the distinctions between risk and uncertainty. This distinction is very important when deciding the appropriate tools and strategies to use to cope with risk and uncertainty

Measuring Risk and Uncertainty

February 13, 2015

This article, second in a series of articles, described two risk measures, variability and downside risk, that are commonly used. Using a case farm in west central Indiana that produced corn and soybeans, variability and downside risk were higher for corn than for soybeans.

TAGS:

business planning, risk

TEAM LINKS:

RELATED RESOURCES

The Role of Technology in Improving Farm Profitability | Commodity Classic 2025

March 12, 2025

Each year, numerous emerging technologies claim to boost your production, reduce input usage, or streamline your farm’s operations. However, the effectiveness of these technologies varies across different farms. Purdue ag economists James Mintert, Michael Langemeier, and Chad Fiechter examined how technology affects long-term farm growth and profitability, and share insights from farm financial records and farmer surveys during their 2025 Commodity Classic Learning Center Session on March 4, 2025. Watch the recording now!

Contingency Planning with Cash Flow Shortages

March 5, 2025

Contingency plans related to how to respond to changes in projected cash flows are important. Given the expected drop in crop prices this fall and wide variability in expected prices, it would be prudent for a farm to examine the sensitivity of their cash flow and repayment capacity to changes in crop prices. Using a case farm in southwest Indiana, Michael illustrates how contingency plans could be used.

Managing Strategic Risks on Your Farm

May 24, 2024

Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture recorded a series of short podcasts and accompanying videos to help agricultural producers improve their strategic risk management skills. Farms are exposed to strategic risks that are caused by a wide variety of unanticipated shocks to the operating environment ranging from government policy shifts to disease outbreaks.

UPCOMING EVENTS

We are taking a short break, but please plan to join us at one of our future programs that is a little farther in the future.

POPULAR RESOURCES

(Part 1) 2024 Indiana Farmland Values & Market Trends

September 11, 2024

Interested in the latest trends and insights on U.S. & Indiana farmland values? This AgCast episode shares insights from the Farm Sector Balance Sheet, USDA data collection methods, regional variations in land values, and the influences of factors such as interest rates and development pressures on farmland prices. Gain an in-depth understanding of trends, market dynamics, and future expectations for farmland values.

August 2024 PAER issue: Farmland Prices Increase Despite Downward Pressure

August 9, 2024

Indiana farmland prices have continued the trend of record highs in 2024, according to the latest Purdue Farmland Value and Cash Rent Survey. The average price of top-quality farmland reached $14,392 per acre, a 4.8% increase from June 2023. Average and poor-quality farmland also saw gains, with prices increasing 3.7% and 4.4% to $11,630 and $9,071 per acre, respectively.

Comparing Net Returns for Alternative Leasing Arrangements

August 7, 2024

Obtaining control of land through leasing has a long history in the United States. Leases on agricultural land are strongly influenced by local custom and tradition. However, in most areas, landowners and operators can choose from several types of lease arrangements. Flexible cash lease arrangements provide a base cash rent plus a bonus which typically represents a share of gross revenue in excess of a certain base value or threshold.

See What Others Like >>

Center for Commercial Agriculture