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Marketing

November 2023 Corn & Soybean Basis Update

As the calendar turns to November, many farmers in the eastern Corn Belt still have corn left to harvest. According to USDA, 68% of corn in Indiana has been harvested as of November 5th. Wet corn in the primary culprit. As a result, many elevators are full and are at drying capacity.

Corn and Soybean Basis Weaken as Harvest Heats Up

As harvest heats up across the Midwest corn and soybean basis have been weakening. Weakening basis during harvest is typical of seasonal basis patterns. Therefore, to give context to current basis levels it is helpful to compare them to historical basis levels.

Déjà vu: Low Mississippi River Levels and Rising Barge Rates May Affect Grain Markets Again this Fall

Dry and hot conditions this year are again contributing to lower than normal river levels and, as a result, increasing barge rates. This is certainly something producers will want to pay attention to this fall.

Forecasting New Crop Basis Bids for Fall 2023

We are now in the final weeks of the 2022-2023 crop marketing year, and after what has been a wild year for corn and soybean basis, basis bids for old crop corn and soybeans have largely settled and are in alignment with historical values for this time of year in most regions across the eastern Corn Belt.

Comparing Corn and Soybean Marketing Strategies

This article identified the optimal portfolio of corn and soybean marketing strategies for a case farm in southeast Indiana. The hedge and roll strategy had the highest net return per acre, and the lowest level of downside risk of any of the individual marketing strategies. However, downside risk can be reduced by diversifying marketing strategies. In particular, combining the hedge and roll strategy with the marketing year cash price strategy was effective in reducing downside risk and resulted in only a slight decline in net return per acre.

Comparing Soybean Marketing Strategies

While there have been numerous studies or articles that have evaluated grain marketing and crop insurance strategies separately, there is limited previous literature that examines these tools simultaneously. The purpose of this article is to identify which strategies contribute to an optimal portfolio of soybean marketing strategies for a case farm in southeast Indiana using a downside risk model.

Comparing Corn Marketing Strategies

While there have been numerous studies or articles that have evaluated grain marketing and crop insurance strategies separately, there is limited previous literature that examines these tools simultaneously. The purpose of this study was to identify which strategies contributed to an optimal portfolio of corn marketing strategies for a case farm in southeast Indiana using a downside risk model.

Soybean Outlook Update Following USDA’s June WASDE Report

Soybean futures volatility increased sharply this week as futures prices responded to concerns about dry weather possibly impacting crop yields. Purdue ag economists James Mintert and Nathanael Thompson discussed the updated soybean outlook on the latest Purdue Commercial AgCast video podcast.

Corn Outlook Update Following USDA’s June WASDE Report

Purdue ag economists James Mintert and Nathanael Thompson discussed the updated corn outlook following USDA’s June World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on the latest Purdue Commercial AgCast video podcast. The latest corn crop condition ratings were discussed along with implications for 2023 U.S. corn yield, production and carryover stocks.

Corn Basis Implications from July-September Futures and Weather Conditions

Corn and soybean basis has been relatively steady in recent weeks in most regions of the eastern Corn Belt. Attention now shifts to the July-September corn futures price spread, which has a strong inversion—September trading for $0.73/bu. less than July. How will this impact basis patterns for the remainder of the summer?

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