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Finances
The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects Producer Price Index (PPI) prices on the Tuesday of the week containing the 13th of each month. The March survey date was March 10. The Iran conflict began on February 28, making March 10 exactly ten days post-onset. The February survey date was February 10 — eighteen days before the conflict began – but well within the window of pre-conflict rhetoric and US troop buildup in the region.
Read MoreGeneral inflation has eased from recent highs, but farm input costs remain elevated and in some cases are still rising. Fertilizer, fuel, and other key inputs continue to be driven by supply shocks and global market forces, creating a disconnect from broader inflation trends. That gap is keeping breakeven prices high and adding uncertainty to 2026 planning decisions. See how these trends are shaping cost expectations for the year ahead.
Read MoreThe March 2026 CPI report confirms what the structural analysis predicted: the Iran Conflict’s initial consumer price impact is concentrated in motor fuels, which respond to crude oil prices with almost no lag. The 0.9 percent monthly CPI increase is large by recent standards — the largest monthly increase since mid-2022, but it is not yet the broad-based food and goods inflation that a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption will eventually produce.
Read MoreFarm input costs don’t move in lockstep with inflation. Understanding which costs follow inflation—and which don’t—is key to managing margins in today’s volatile environment.
Read MoreTwo outstanding farms in south-central Indiana will host visitors wanting to learn about farm and crop management on July 10th for the Purdue University Farm Management Tour.
Read MoreWhen an energy shock ripples out from the Persian Gulf, the headlines focus on oil prices, gasoline costs, implications for value chains and the profit margins of U.S. producers.
Read MoreThe initial public reaction to an oil price shock reaching $110 per barrel is often to project near-immediate, dramatic increases in grocery prices. This instinct overstates the direct farm-to-retail transmission channel in a straightforward and measurable way. The USDA Economic Research Service tracks how each dollar of consumer food spending is distributed across the supply chain in its Food Dollar Series. The picture it reveals is sobering for those who expect large and rapid retail food price responses driven purely by higher farm input costs.
Read MoreThe conflict that began on February 28, 2026, with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow chokepoint through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s traded oil and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flow. Within days, Brent crude oil surged from roughly $70 per barrel to over $110, the highest level since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Gasoline prices at the pump rose roughly 17 percent in the first two weeks of the conflict, and diesel — the lifeblood of farming operations — followed closely.
Read MoreThe U.S. economy in 2026 is expected to grow slowly, primarily due to slower consumer spending growth. Unemployment should remain around 4.6%, as the growth in job openings matches the growth in job searchers. Inflation is likely to hold steady near 2.5%, due to lower oil prices and slower growth in housing costs. Tariffs will add to goods inflation. The Federal Reserve may make further modest reductions in the federal funds rate, leading to somewhat lower interest rates. Barring unexpected shocks, the outlook is for another year of slow expansion rather than recession.
Read MoreU.S. trade policy is being made without even a textbook understanding of International Economics. The policies of 2025 will largely continue in 2026, hurting export-oriented agriculture and eroding U.S. standing in the world.
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