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Finances

Financial Stress on Crop Farms: Who Is Most at Risk in the 2024–26 Downturn?

Midwest crop producers have experienced a significant downturn in corn, soybean, and wheat prices since late 2023, resulting in a drop in net returns in 2024. Moreover, current expectations are that prices will continue to remain at or below the cost of production for at least a couple more years. Consequently, a key question being asked is as follows: “Who is the most vulnerable financially during this downturn”?

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Long-Run Cash Rent Spreadsheet Tool

Examine breakeven prices, earnings per acre, breakeven cash rents, and trends in working capital with this spreadsheet tool.

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Purdue Flexible Lease Workshop

September 16 at 7 pm or September 23 at 9 am

The Flexible Lease virtual Workshop, presented by the Purdue Extension Land Lease Team, will include a presentation and discussion to help you decide if a flexible land lease arrangement is right for your farm.

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Flexible Cash Lease Parameters

Explore how different lease types—from crop share to flexible cash leases—impact risk and returns for both landowners and tenants. This analysis uses real Indiana data to compare a fixed cash rent lease, a crop share lease, and eight flexible cash lease arrangements, helping you evaluate which structure fits your farm’s goals. Flex leases with base rent and bonuses are gaining traction—see why they may be a smart alternative to fixed cash rent.

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Impact of Leverage on Rates of Return

Increasing financial leverage will increase expected returns as long the marginal returns from the use of loans exceeds the cost of borrowing. In favorable economic times, higher leverage can improve financial performance and stimulate farm growth. However, in unfavorable economic times, leverage can cause business performance to deteriorate rapidly. Thus, higher leverage may increase expected returns and financial risk.

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Decomposition of Statement of Cash Flows

Cash flow trends from 2007 to 2024 show how crop farms rely on operating income and borrowed funds to drive growth through asset purchases. As income levels shift, so do investment decisions—offering key insights for managing through expected challenges in 2025.

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Decomposition of Changes in Net Worth

There are three major changes that contribute to an increase or decrease in net worth: change in retained earnings, change in contributed capital, and change in market valuation. Tracking changes in net worth over time is one of the most important tasks of those in charge of analyzing a farm’s financial position and performance.

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Indiana Farm Income Outlook Report, Spring 2025

The Spring 2025 Indiana Farm Income Outlook, published by the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF),  provides updated projections for Indiana farm profitability through 2026. The report highlights a projected 40% increase in Indiana net farm income in 2025—driven largely by higher government payments—and offers insight into trends in crop and livestock markets, production expenses, and policy impacts.

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Trends in General Inflation and Farm Input Prices

Recent data shows that while farm input prices are influenced by general inflation, they often diverge due to distinct supply and demand dynamics for each input. This article explores long-term trends from 1973–2024 and highlights how inputs like labor and machinery tend to track inflation more closely than others like feed or fertilizer.

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Changes in Corn and Soybean Profitability (Dec ’24 – Apr ’25)

Profitability expectations for corn and soybeans in Indiana have shifted sharply in recent months, driven primarily by changing crop prices and updated USDA yield estimates. Learn why soybeans continue to show a strong net return advantage—even as tariffs, market volatility, and evolving policy developments reshape the outlook—by diving into our month-by-month breakdown of budget projections from December through April.

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